#Swiss #inflation remains at 0.2% yoy - slightly below expectations. Details are ok. Domestic inflation is stable at 0.6% yoy indicating that there are no deflationary processes. Imported inflation is negative but far above levels in 2015 and 2020. No reason for #negative #rates!

The #SNB reports CHF 5.06 bl #FX interventions for Q2 - the first quarter it purchased FX since 1Q22. Most likely it tried to smooth FX volatility after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Yesterday the SNB and the US treasury agreed to rule out competitive FX devaluations

#Consumer #inflation expectations as surveyed by the #ECB are picking up for the next 12 months and 3 years. Unclear whether that is trade war related or not. No reason to panic but also no reason to cut policy rates by 50bp next time. Several cuts by 25bp if needed are safer.

#SNB cuts policy rate by 25bp as expected. Importantly, it argues that the cut ensures that monetary policy remains #APPROPRIATE given low inflationary pressure. It also increased the inflation projection to 0.8% for Q3 &Q4 2027. Both indicate that no rate cut is likely in June.

Goods news from Eurostat: Final February #inflation revised down to 2.3% from 2.4% and most importantly services inflation falls to 3.7%. In line with that also labour cost growth declined to 3.7% for 4Q24 from 4.5% in Q3. It really seems that we are on the right path

Another stimulating #ecbwatcher conference. Also feels like a class reunion again

Golf of what again? #Google Maps is reacting very fast…

#SNB cut its policy rate by 50bp as we expected. Thereby, its new chairman, #Schlegel, shows that he is as determined to fight too low inflation as his predecessor. The new inflation forecast is below the previous one for 2025 but a bit higher for 2026. Notably no forward guidance was given.

Lenzspitze (4293m, middle) and Dom (4545m, left). Längfluh restaurant and Fee glacier below. While not the best conditions for skiing these days, the views are still spectacular.
@Saas-Fee

Is the marginal buyer of #gold #Chinese now?
Until the #Ukraine war and the freezing of #Russian assets the gold price was mainly a function of US #yields. Since then the correlation broke down completely. Now gold seems to be rather #correlated with Chinese #bond yields.

#Swiss #Inflation remained weak in November matching consensus expectations of 0.7% yoy. (core 0.9% yoy /CPI ex rent 0.1% yoy). This confirms that the inflationary pressure is very weak and that the #SNB shouldn't hesitate to cut ist policy rate decisively in the coming quarters.

The #mortgage #reference rate remained unchanged in Q4. Still #lending rates are falling further in #Switzerland. Now it is all but certain that the reference rate will be cut in March such that rents can be adjusted down in August. Our inflation forecast remains at 0.4% for 2025

#Swiss GDP in Q3 remains remarkably stable w 0.4%qoq & 0.2% qoq sport-event adjusted, considering the weak international environment. Strong #private consumption partly compensated falling goods exports. Only #investment spending is worrying as it fell in 5 out of last 6 quarters

It is not all falling apart in the #euro area: At least, not yet. #Economic #Sentiment in November improved in the #retail and industrial sectors. #Price components increased as well in most sectors. Possibly rising real incomes stabilize it by increasing household spending.

Three reasons for US-small caps:
1) High #rates hurt small caps less than in the past as they are no more #leveraged than the S&P median stock.
2) Due to higher domestic earnings lower corporate #taxes benefit small more than large caps as the 2017 tax cuts showed.
3) The smaller foreign exposure

Hello Bluesky! Travelling back from the #SNB #watcher conference might be a good opportunity for my #first tweet here. The conference didn’t change my expectation that we see 3 25bp #cuts down to a 0.25% policy rate by June. Yet I found it remarkable how much the SNB talked down market expectations.