Álvaro Junquera
@junquera.bsky.social
Investigador postdoctoral (@bsc-cns.bsky.social). Student of labour markets, public policies, and methodology. Me apasiona el carnaval de Cádiz. https://sites.google.com/view/alvarojunquera
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference (Carlos Cinelli, Avi Feller, Guido Imbens, Edward Kennedy, Sara Magliacane & Jose Zubizarreta)
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference
Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer science, and beyond. The f...
arxiv.org
October 20, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference (Carlos Cinelli, Avi Feller, Guido Imbens, Edward Kennedy, Sara Magliacane & Jose Zubizarreta)
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
🎉 New article published in the Journal for Labour Market Research with Christoph Kern (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social)!
We compare the current rule-based profiling model with various statistical models in terms of model discrimination and calibration
labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10....
We compare the current rule-based profiling model with various statistical models in terms of model discrimination and calibration
labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10....
From rules to forests: rule-based versus statistical models for jobseeker profiling - Journal for Labour Market Research
Public employment services (PES) commonly apply profiling models to target labor market programs to jobseekers at risk of becoming long-term unemployed. Such allocation systems often codify institutio...
labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com
October 17, 2025 at 11:48 AM
🎉 New article published in the Journal for Labour Market Research with Christoph Kern (@lmumuenchen.bsky.social)!
We compare the current rule-based profiling model with various statistical models in terms of model discrimination and calibration
labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10....
We compare the current rule-based profiling model with various statistical models in terms of model discrimination and calibration
labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Causal inference needs experiments *and* theory:
"Joel Mokyr (...) demonstrated that if innovations are to succeed one another in a self-generating process, we not only need to know that something works, but we also need to have scientific explanations for why"
www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...
"Joel Mokyr (...) demonstrated that if innovations are to succeed one another in a self-generating process, we not only need to know that something works, but we also need to have scientific explanations for why"
www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025 was awarded “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth” with one half to Joel Mokyr “for having identified ...
www.nobelprize.org
October 13, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Causal inference needs experiments *and* theory:
"Joel Mokyr (...) demonstrated that if innovations are to succeed one another in a self-generating process, we not only need to know that something works, but we also need to have scientific explanations for why"
www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...
"Joel Mokyr (...) demonstrated that if innovations are to succeed one another in a self-generating process, we not only need to know that something works, but we also need to have scientific explanations for why"
www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...
"No ha sido el asombro, sino el fervor social surgido de los sórdidos callejones y la tristeza de las vidas marchitas lo que ha provocado la ciencia económica" (Arthur Pigou). Guau.
September 21, 2025 at 11:42 AM
"No ha sido el asombro, sino el fervor social surgido de los sórdidos callejones y la tristeza de las vidas marchitas lo que ha provocado la ciencia económica" (Arthur Pigou). Guau.
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
📙 Glad to share this new research with @junquera.bsky.social.
📊 We analyse how outsourcing affects time-related dimensions of job quality, focusing on temporary work, part-time contracts and scheduling in the facility management business.
📄 Chapter: lnkd.in/d9nB8Tzj
🔗 Book: lnkd.in/dsfuK6uW
📊 We analyse how outsourcing affects time-related dimensions of job quality, focusing on temporary work, part-time contracts and scheduling in the facility management business.
📄 Chapter: lnkd.in/d9nB8Tzj
🔗 Book: lnkd.in/dsfuK6uW
September 2, 2025 at 8:26 AM
📙 Glad to share this new research with @junquera.bsky.social.
📊 We analyse how outsourcing affects time-related dimensions of job quality, focusing on temporary work, part-time contracts and scheduling in the facility management business.
📄 Chapter: lnkd.in/d9nB8Tzj
🔗 Book: lnkd.in/dsfuK6uW
📊 We analyse how outsourcing affects time-related dimensions of job quality, focusing on temporary work, part-time contracts and scheduling in the facility management business.
📄 Chapter: lnkd.in/d9nB8Tzj
🔗 Book: lnkd.in/dsfuK6uW
One of the greatest beauties/difficulties of economics is the problem of being a system and its dynamics: multiple pipes (direct, indirect, and induced effects) and different forces (structural causal models) at the long and short run. It makes me crazy
August 19, 2025 at 10:29 AM
One of the greatest beauties/difficulties of economics is the problem of being a system and its dynamics: multiple pipes (direct, indirect, and induced effects) and different forces (structural causal models) at the long and short run. It makes me crazy
Never ask a guy using/teaching clustering about the robustness of results to slight changes in the distance metric, the pre-specified number of clusters or the geometrical shape of the clusters
co-signed (in my 8 years of statistical consulting, clustering has not solved anyone’s problem)
>10 years on and i still haven't seen a single question answered with clustering
August 13, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Never ask a guy using/teaching clustering about the robustness of results to slight changes in the distance metric, the pre-specified number of clusters or the geometrical shape of the clusters
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
The AI infrastructure build-out is so gigantic that in the past 6 months, it contributed more to the growth of the U.S. economy than /all of consumer spending/
The 'magnificent 7' spent more than $100 billion on data centers and the like in the past three months *alone*
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sili...
The 'magnificent 7' spent more than $100 billion on data centers and the like in the past three months *alone*
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sili...
August 1, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The AI infrastructure build-out is so gigantic that in the past 6 months, it contributed more to the growth of the U.S. economy than /all of consumer spending/
The 'magnificent 7' spent more than $100 billion on data centers and the like in the past three months *alone*
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sili...
The 'magnificent 7' spent more than $100 billion on data centers and the like in the past three months *alone*
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sili...
"En el siglo XXI la divergencia en PTF con respecto a EE. UU. se explica principalmente por la debilidad de la productividad del capital en España, mientras que en el siglo XX la productividad del trabajo era la principal responsable de esta divergencia" www.fbbva.es/publicacione...
July 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
"En el siglo XXI la divergencia en PTF con respecto a EE. UU. se explica principalmente por la debilidad de la productividad del capital en España, mientras que en el siglo XX la productividad del trabajo era la principal responsable de esta divergencia" www.fbbva.es/publicacione...
Sometimes a simple model is enough to describe the past
(@davidautor.bsky.social in doi.org/10.1126/scie...)
(@davidautor.bsky.social in doi.org/10.1126/scie...)
July 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Sometimes a simple model is enough to describe the past
(@davidautor.bsky.social in doi.org/10.1126/scie...)
(@davidautor.bsky.social in doi.org/10.1126/scie...)
OECD Employment Outlook 2025 -
Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch?
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch?
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
OECD Employment Outlook 2025
Population ageing is one of the megatrends shaping the future of societies and labour markets. The old-age dependency ratio – the ratio of individuals aged 65 and older to the working-age population –...
www.oecd.org
July 12, 2025 at 11:56 AM
OECD Employment Outlook 2025 -
Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch?
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch?
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
"El juez considera que el cambio de marco laboral aplicado por Glovo desde diciembre de 2024, optando por la supresión paulatina de los falsos autónomos por otro modelo de contratación laboral no ha supuesto un cambio efectivo en las cuotas de mercado de ambas compañías.
elpais.com/economia/202...
elpais.com/economia/202...
La justicia exime a Glovo de pagar casi 300 millones a Just Eat por competencia desleal
El juez carga contra “algún iluminado y omnisciente burócrata que parece gozar de un privilegiado acceso a la Verdad” para validar el modelo ‘riders’ falsos autónomos
elpais.com
July 10, 2025 at 3:36 PM
"El juez considera que el cambio de marco laboral aplicado por Glovo desde diciembre de 2024, optando por la supresión paulatina de los falsos autónomos por otro modelo de contratación laboral no ha supuesto un cambio efectivo en las cuotas de mercado de ambas compañías.
elpais.com/economia/202...
elpais.com/economia/202...
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
Is working from home just a pandemic blip? Not according to the data.
We analysed 1 billion job postings in 20 OECD countries.
The share of jobs advertising remote/hybrid work quadrupled from 2.5% to 11% (2019–2023) and has been stable since
🧵
We analysed 1 billion job postings in 20 OECD countries.
The share of jobs advertising remote/hybrid work quadrupled from 2.5% to 11% (2019–2023) and has been stable since
🧵
July 10, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Is working from home just a pandemic blip? Not according to the data.
We analysed 1 billion job postings in 20 OECD countries.
The share of jobs advertising remote/hybrid work quadrupled from 2.5% to 11% (2019–2023) and has been stable since
🧵
We analysed 1 billion job postings in 20 OECD countries.
The share of jobs advertising remote/hybrid work quadrupled from 2.5% to 11% (2019–2023) and has been stable since
🧵
Interesting website centralizing European alternatives for digital services european-alternatives.eu
Homepage | European Alternatives
We help you find European alternatives for digital service and products, like cloud services and SaaS products.
european-alternatives.eu
June 22, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Interesting website centralizing European alternatives for digital services european-alternatives.eu
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
Recordemos que ACCIONA, junto a otras grandes constructoras de este país, han sido sancionadas por haber creado cárteles que amañaron concursos públicos.
Resultado: colegios, carreteras, hospitales, asfaltados, etc. costaron más a los contribuyentes por el cartel.
Breve hilo⬇️
Resultado: colegios, carreteras, hospitales, asfaltados, etc. costaron más a los contribuyentes por el cartel.
Breve hilo⬇️
June 13, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Recordemos que ACCIONA, junto a otras grandes constructoras de este país, han sido sancionadas por haber creado cárteles que amañaron concursos públicos.
Resultado: colegios, carreteras, hospitales, asfaltados, etc. costaron más a los contribuyentes por el cartel.
Breve hilo⬇️
Resultado: colegios, carreteras, hospitales, asfaltados, etc. costaron más a los contribuyentes por el cartel.
Breve hilo⬇️
It's truly pleasant to read The Economy 2.0 - Microeconomics. Although it is still defining market failures as Pareto-inefficiencies, it's cool it reflects Pareto-efficiency *and fairness* as two important criteria to evaluate allocations
www.core-econ.org/the-economy/...
www.core-econ.org/the-economy/...
5.3 Evaluating institutions and outcomes: Fairness
How institutions influence the fairness and efficiency of the outcomes that result when people interact in the economy
www.core-econ.org
June 8, 2025 at 1:48 PM
It's truly pleasant to read The Economy 2.0 - Microeconomics. Although it is still defining market failures as Pareto-inefficiencies, it's cool it reflects Pareto-efficiency *and fairness* as two important criteria to evaluate allocations
www.core-econ.org/the-economy/...
www.core-econ.org/the-economy/...
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
🧵 1/9 📊 Dades obertes del MITMS ens permeten saber quanta gent hi havia a cada municipi en cada moment. Mobilitat, esdeveniments, hàbits socials! 💡Periodistes i urbanistes:
@elivivas.bsky.social @drxeo.eu @rogertugas.bsky.social
@kikollan.llaneras.es
📍Exemples 👇
@elivivas.bsky.social @drxeo.eu @rogertugas.bsky.social
@kikollan.llaneras.es
📍Exemples 👇
May 26, 2025 at 4:19 PM
🧵 1/9 📊 Dades obertes del MITMS ens permeten saber quanta gent hi havia a cada municipi en cada moment. Mobilitat, esdeveniments, hàbits socials! 💡Periodistes i urbanistes:
@elivivas.bsky.social @drxeo.eu @rogertugas.bsky.social
@kikollan.llaneras.es
📍Exemples 👇
@elivivas.bsky.social @drxeo.eu @rogertugas.bsky.social
@kikollan.llaneras.es
📍Exemples 👇
Nueva Conferencia Sectorial de Empleo y Asuntos Laborales. Lo positivo: financiación plurianual para las políticas activas de empleo. Lo negativo: seguimos con indicadores de desempeño que no dicen casi nada.
www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdep...
www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdep...
Trabajo y Comunidades Autónomas acuerdan la distribución territorial de 2.571 millones de euros en Políticas Activas de Empleo en 2025
miércoles, 21 de mayo de 2025. Como novedad, se establecen los criterios de distribución de créditos para los ejercicios 2026, 2027, 2028 y 2029 para dar estabilidad a la ejecución de las políticas ac...
www.lamoncloa.gob.es
May 22, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Nueva Conferencia Sectorial de Empleo y Asuntos Laborales. Lo positivo: financiación plurianual para las políticas activas de empleo. Lo negativo: seguimos con indicadores de desempeño que no dicen casi nada.
www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdep...
www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdep...
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
Most applications in R run pretty quickly. But these days, many R users are faced with huge datasets and/or long-running applications, making parallel computation attractive. 🧵 1/
May 21, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Most applications in R run pretty quickly. But these days, many R users are faced with huge datasets and/or long-running applications, making parallel computation attractive. 🧵 1/
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
📢 Book Alert! "Global Trends in Job Polarisation and Upgrading: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Economies" is out!
Published by Palgrave Macmillan/ Springer, this volume examines global patterns of job creation at a global scale | 🔗 link.springer.com/book/10.1007... #EconSky #sociology
Published by Palgrave Macmillan/ Springer, this volume examines global patterns of job creation at a global scale | 🔗 link.springer.com/book/10.1007... #EconSky #sociology
March 3, 2025 at 8:31 AM
📢 Book Alert! "Global Trends in Job Polarisation and Upgrading: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Economies" is out!
Published by Palgrave Macmillan/ Springer, this volume examines global patterns of job creation at a global scale | 🔗 link.springer.com/book/10.1007... #EconSky #sociology
Published by Palgrave Macmillan/ Springer, this volume examines global patterns of job creation at a global scale | 🔗 link.springer.com/book/10.1007... #EconSky #sociology
He visto el otro país
En nuestros hijos mi amor
En la tremenda ilusión
De creérmelo, de creérmelo
open.spotify.com/track/3sLGrh...
En nuestros hijos mi amor
En la tremenda ilusión
De creérmelo, de creérmelo
open.spotify.com/track/3sLGrh...
El Otro País
Teresa Parodi · Autobiografía · Song · 2007
open.spotify.com
May 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
He visto el otro país
En nuestros hijos mi amor
En la tremenda ilusión
De creérmelo, de creérmelo
open.spotify.com/track/3sLGrh...
En nuestros hijos mi amor
En la tremenda ilusión
De creérmelo, de creérmelo
open.spotify.com/track/3sLGrh...
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
Co-director @davidautor.bsky.social explains key findings from his recent NBER working paper, co-authored with our research affiliate @profdaviddorn.bsky.social, Gordon Hanson, Maggie Jones, and Bradley Setzler.
Read the paper: shapingwork.mit.edu/research/pla...
#EconSky
Read the paper: shapingwork.mit.edu/research/pla...
#EconSky
May 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Co-director @davidautor.bsky.social explains key findings from his recent NBER working paper, co-authored with our research affiliate @profdaviddorn.bsky.social, Gordon Hanson, Maggie Jones, and Bradley Setzler.
Read the paper: shapingwork.mit.edu/research/pla...
#EconSky
Read the paper: shapingwork.mit.edu/research/pla...
#EconSky
ineapir: an R package to query statistical data from National Statistics Institute (INE Spain) github.com/es-ine/ineapir
GitHub - es-ine/ineapir: Obtaining data published by the National Statistics Institute
Obtaining data published by the National Statistics Institute - GitHub - es-ine/ineapir: Obtaining data published by the National Statistics Institute
github.com
May 7, 2025 at 12:24 PM
ineapir: an R package to query statistical data from National Statistics Institute (INE Spain) github.com/es-ine/ineapir
Reposted by Álvaro Junquera
It's bonkers that in academic science we spend hours obsessing over the wording of a paper, but often only one person has seen the code that produced the results! 2/N
April 16, 2025 at 1:23 PM
It's bonkers that in academic science we spend hours obsessing over the wording of a paper, but often only one person has seen the code that produced the results! 2/N