Jon From CA
@jonfromca.bsky.social
If anyone reading this wants to follow this year’s elections and more races in 2026 and beyond, I highly recommend following @the-downballot.com’s coverage! Unfortunately, it’s too late to sign up for their prediction contest, but thought I’d share what I put for my entry:
www.the-downballot.com
www.the-downballot.com
The Downballot | David Nir | Substack
Covering every election, from kickoff to call. Click to read The Downballot, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
www.the-downballot.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:12 PM
If anyone reading this wants to follow this year’s elections and more races in 2026 and beyond, I highly recommend following @the-downballot.com’s coverage! Unfortunately, it’s too late to sign up for their prediction contest, but thought I’d share what I put for my entry:
www.the-downballot.com
www.the-downballot.com
Zohran Mamdani hasn’t even been elected mayor yet and millionaires are already leaving New York for states with lower taxes like Indiana and Texas
November 4, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Zohran Mamdani hasn’t even been elected mayor yet and millionaires are already leaving New York for states with lower taxes like Indiana and Texas
Updated World Series prediction: Dodgers>Blue Jays in 6
MLB postseason predictions
Wild Card
Red Sox>Yankees in 3
Guardians>Tigers in 2
Cubs>Padres in 3
Dodgers>Reds in 2
ALDS/NLDS
Blue Jays>Sox in 5
Mariners>Guardians in 4
Brewers>Cubs in 5
Phillies>Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Jays>Mariners in 6
NLCS: Brewers>Phillies in 6
World Series: Brewers>Jays in 6
Wild Card
Red Sox>Yankees in 3
Guardians>Tigers in 2
Cubs>Padres in 3
Dodgers>Reds in 2
ALDS/NLDS
Blue Jays>Sox in 5
Mariners>Guardians in 4
Brewers>Cubs in 5
Phillies>Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Jays>Mariners in 6
NLCS: Brewers>Phillies in 6
World Series: Brewers>Jays in 6
October 23, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Updated World Series prediction: Dodgers>Blue Jays in 6
Yankees haven't lost to Canadians this badly since 1814
October 9, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Yankees haven't lost to Canadians this badly since 1814
MLB postseason predictions
Wild Card
Red Sox>Yankees in 3
Guardians>Tigers in 2
Cubs>Padres in 3
Dodgers>Reds in 2
ALDS/NLDS
Blue Jays>Sox in 5
Mariners>Guardians in 4
Brewers>Cubs in 5
Phillies>Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Jays>Mariners in 6
NLCS: Brewers>Phillies in 6
World Series: Brewers>Jays in 6
Wild Card
Red Sox>Yankees in 3
Guardians>Tigers in 2
Cubs>Padres in 3
Dodgers>Reds in 2
ALDS/NLDS
Blue Jays>Sox in 5
Mariners>Guardians in 4
Brewers>Cubs in 5
Phillies>Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Jays>Mariners in 6
NLCS: Brewers>Phillies in 6
World Series: Brewers>Jays in 6
September 30, 2025 at 4:25 PM
MLB postseason predictions
Wild Card
Red Sox>Yankees in 3
Guardians>Tigers in 2
Cubs>Padres in 3
Dodgers>Reds in 2
ALDS/NLDS
Blue Jays>Sox in 5
Mariners>Guardians in 4
Brewers>Cubs in 5
Phillies>Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Jays>Mariners in 6
NLCS: Brewers>Phillies in 6
World Series: Brewers>Jays in 6
Wild Card
Red Sox>Yankees in 3
Guardians>Tigers in 2
Cubs>Padres in 3
Dodgers>Reds in 2
ALDS/NLDS
Blue Jays>Sox in 5
Mariners>Guardians in 4
Brewers>Cubs in 5
Phillies>Dodgers in 5
ALCS: Jays>Mariners in 6
NLCS: Brewers>Phillies in 6
World Series: Brewers>Jays in 6
1025: The Vikings are in Ireland and England
2025: The Vikings are in Ireland and England
2025: The Vikings are in Ireland and England
September 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
1025: The Vikings are in Ireland and England
2025: The Vikings are in Ireland and England
2025: The Vikings are in Ireland and England
“We should pull an 1832 South Carolina on federal taxes but redistricting in response to Texas is too far”
August 21, 2025 at 3:18 AM
“We should pull an 1832 South Carolina on federal taxes but redistricting in response to Texas is too far”
Your heart will definitely need a blessing if you eat that
The Braves created the "Bless Your Heart Dog" for All-Star Week ...
It's a deep fried footlong hot dog rolled in hot Cheetos and Fruity Pebbles 😳
It's a deep fried footlong hot dog rolled in hot Cheetos and Fruity Pebbles 😳
July 15, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Your heart will definitely need a blessing if you eat that
“Sending in the military against protesters in MacArthur Park” would get rejected for being too lazy of a metaphor if you put it in a book
I’m here in MacArthur Park in Los Angeles, where military style vehicles have pulled up down Wilshire and Alvarado, amid rumors of an ICE raid in the park have proliferated since last night
July 7, 2025 at 6:42 PM
“Sending in the military against protesters in MacArthur Park” would get rejected for being too lazy of a metaphor if you put it in a book
Was looking at my 401k the other day, say that the dashboard had a projected retirement age, and thought to myself how much different the world will be by 2066
June 28, 2025 at 4:19 AM
Was looking at my 401k the other day, say that the dashboard had a projected retirement age, and thought to myself how much different the world will be by 2066
NBA Finals prediction:
Thunder > Pacers in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thunder > Pacers in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
ECF: Knicks > Pacers in 6
WCF: Thunder > Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder > Knicks in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
WCF: Thunder > Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder > Knicks in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
After round 1:
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
June 4, 2025 at 4:43 PM
NBA Finals prediction:
Thunder > Pacers in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thunder > Pacers in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Stanley Cup Finals prediction:
Panthers > Oilers in 6
Panthers > Oilers in 6
ECF: Panthers > Hurricanes in 6
WCF: Stars > Oilers in 6
SCF: Panthers > Stars in 6
WCF: Stars > Oilers in 6
SCF: Panthers > Stars in 6
After Round 1:
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
June 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Stanley Cup Finals prediction:
Panthers > Oilers in 6
Panthers > Oilers in 6
ECF: Knicks > Pacers in 6
WCF: Thunder > Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder > Knicks in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
WCF: Thunder > Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder > Knicks in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
After round 1:
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
NBA playoff predictions
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
May 20, 2025 at 5:42 PM
ECF: Knicks > Pacers in 6
WCF: Thunder > Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder > Knicks in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
WCF: Thunder > Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder > Knicks in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
ECF: Panthers > Hurricanes in 6
WCF: Stars > Oilers in 6
SCF: Panthers > Stars in 6
WCF: Stars > Oilers in 6
SCF: Panthers > Stars in 6
After Round 1:
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
NHL playoff predictions:
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
May 20, 2025 at 5:41 PM
ECF: Panthers > Hurricanes in 6
WCF: Stars > Oilers in 6
SCF: Panthers > Stars in 6
WCF: Stars > Oilers in 6
SCF: Panthers > Stars in 6
After Round 1:
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
NHL playoff predictions:
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
May 5, 2025 at 7:31 AM
After Round 1:
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
Round 2:
Panthers>Maple Leafs in 6
Capitals>Hurricanes in 7
Jets>Stars in 5
Golden Knights>Oilers in 7
ECF: Capitals>Panthers in 5
WCF: Golden Knights>Jets in 7
SCF: Capitals>Golden Knights in 5
After round 1:
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
NBA playoff predictions
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
May 4, 2025 at 7:00 AM
After round 1:
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
Round 2:
Cavaliers>Pacers in 7
Celtics>Knicks in 5
ECF:
Cavaliers>Celtics in 7
Fifty years since Saigon fell, and today it is on the verge of happening here
April 30, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Fifty years since Saigon fell, and today it is on the verge of happening here
Canada prediction:
Liberal: 42.8%, 188 seats (+28 from 2021)
Conservative: 39.0%, 127 seats (+8)
Bloc Québécois: 6.0%, 21 seats (-11)
New Democratic: 8.3%, 6 seats (-19)
Green: 1.9%, 1 seat (-1)
People’s: 1.4%, 0 seats (+/-0)
Liberal: 42.8%, 188 seats (+28 from 2021)
Conservative: 39.0%, 127 seats (+8)
Bloc Québécois: 6.0%, 21 seats (-11)
New Democratic: 8.3%, 6 seats (-19)
Green: 1.9%, 1 seat (-1)
People’s: 1.4%, 0 seats (+/-0)
April 28, 2025 at 4:03 AM
Canada prediction:
Liberal: 42.8%, 188 seats (+28 from 2021)
Conservative: 39.0%, 127 seats (+8)
Bloc Québécois: 6.0%, 21 seats (-11)
New Democratic: 8.3%, 6 seats (-19)
Green: 1.9%, 1 seat (-1)
People’s: 1.4%, 0 seats (+/-0)
Liberal: 42.8%, 188 seats (+28 from 2021)
Conservative: 39.0%, 127 seats (+8)
Bloc Québécois: 6.0%, 21 seats (-11)
New Democratic: 8.3%, 6 seats (-19)
Green: 1.9%, 1 seat (-1)
People’s: 1.4%, 0 seats (+/-0)
After the play-in, Cavs over Heat in 5
NBA playoff predictions
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
April 19, 2025 at 1:36 PM
After the play-in, Cavs over Heat in 5
NHL playoff predictions:
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
April 19, 2025 at 6:26 AM
NHL playoff predictions:
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
Round 1
Senators>Maple Leafs in 6
Lightning>Panthers in 7
Capitals>Canadiens in 5
Hurricanes>Devils in 7
Golden Knights>Wild in 5
Kings>Oilers in 6
Jets>Blues in 6
Avalanche>Stars in 7
Round 2
Lightning>Senators in 7
Caps>Canes in 7
Kings>Knights in 6
Jets>Avs in 6
NBA playoff predictions
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
April 14, 2025 at 1:01 PM
NBA playoff predictions
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
Play-in:
Magic>Hawks
Bulls>Heat
Hawks>Bulls
Warriors>Grizzlies
Kings>Mavericks
Grizzlies>Kings
Round 1:
Cavaliers>Hawks in 7
Celtics>Magic in 7
Knicks>Pistons in 7
Bucks>Pacers in 6
Thunder>Grizzlies in 4
Warriors>Rockets in 6
Lakers>Timberwolves in 7
Clippers>Nuggets in 6
👊 🇺🇸 🔥 Happy Liberation Day! 👊 🇺🇸 🔥
April 2, 2025 at 4:06 AM
👊 🇺🇸 🔥 Happy Liberation Day! 👊 🇺🇸 🔥
Predictions for Tuesday’s races:
FL-1: Jimmy Patronis (R) +28 (9 points better for Democrats than 2024)
FL-6: Randy Fine (R) +12 (18 points better)
WI-SC: Susan Crawford (D) +7 (8 points better)
FL-1: Jimmy Patronis (R) +28 (9 points better for Democrats than 2024)
FL-6: Randy Fine (R) +12 (18 points better)
WI-SC: Susan Crawford (D) +7 (8 points better)
April 1, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Predictions for Tuesday’s races:
FL-1: Jimmy Patronis (R) +28 (9 points better for Democrats than 2024)
FL-6: Randy Fine (R) +12 (18 points better)
WI-SC: Susan Crawford (D) +7 (8 points better)
FL-1: Jimmy Patronis (R) +28 (9 points better for Democrats than 2024)
FL-6: Randy Fine (R) +12 (18 points better)
WI-SC: Susan Crawford (D) +7 (8 points better)
My German election prediction, let’s see how poorly this ages
CDU/CSU- 29.9%
AfD- 20.5%
SPD- 15.3%
Grune- 13.0%
Linke- 7.2%
BSW- 4.5% (out)
FDP- 4.3% (out)
Government- CDU/CSU-SPD coalition
CDU/CSU- 29.9%
AfD- 20.5%
SPD- 15.3%
Grune- 13.0%
Linke- 7.2%
BSW- 4.5% (out)
FDP- 4.3% (out)
Government- CDU/CSU-SPD coalition
February 23, 2025 at 6:48 AM
My German election prediction, let’s see how poorly this ages
CDU/CSU- 29.9%
AfD- 20.5%
SPD- 15.3%
Grune- 13.0%
Linke- 7.2%
BSW- 4.5% (out)
FDP- 4.3% (out)
Government- CDU/CSU-SPD coalition
CDU/CSU- 29.9%
AfD- 20.5%
SPD- 15.3%
Grune- 13.0%
Linke- 7.2%
BSW- 4.5% (out)
FDP- 4.3% (out)
Government- CDU/CSU-SPD coalition
As a sports fan it really throws you for a loop when you start finding out that some of the players you watch and/or root for are younger than you
February 18, 2025 at 5:55 PM
As a sports fan it really throws you for a loop when you start finding out that some of the players you watch and/or root for are younger than you