H. John Tran
@johnhtran.bsky.social
I don’t just track collapse, I track replacement.
Economics, AI, daily life, and systems that actually work.
Economics, AI, daily life, and systems that actually work.
Less than 14% of ICE arrests involved violent crimes.
Nearly 40% had no criminal record.
That gap isn’t a mistake.
It’s the strategy.
Nearly 40% had no criminal record.
That gap isn’t a mistake.
It’s the strategy.
February 9, 2026 at 7:49 PM
Less than 14% of ICE arrests involved violent crimes.
Nearly 40% had no criminal record.
That gap isn’t a mistake.
It’s the strategy.
Nearly 40% had no criminal record.
That gap isn’t a mistake.
It’s the strategy.
Trump tied $16B in tunnel funding to a demand that Penn Station and Dulles be renamed after him.
Freeze the money, then sell the release as a “deal.”
Freeze the money, then sell the release as a “deal.”
February 7, 2026 at 8:14 PM
Trump tied $16B in tunnel funding to a demand that Penn Station and Dulles be renamed after him.
Freeze the money, then sell the release as a “deal.”
Freeze the money, then sell the release as a “deal.”
Trump posted a “meme” depicting the Obamas as apes.
The White House defended it.
Then deleted it and blamed a staffer.
Trump: “I didn’t watch it all.”
That’s the playbook, push it out, see what sticks, then pretend it was an accident.
The White House defended it.
Then deleted it and blamed a staffer.
Trump: “I didn’t watch it all.”
That’s the playbook, push it out, see what sticks, then pretend it was an accident.
February 7, 2026 at 3:34 PM
Trump posted a “meme” depicting the Obamas as apes.
The White House defended it.
Then deleted it and blamed a staffer.
Trump: “I didn’t watch it all.”
That’s the playbook, push it out, see what sticks, then pretend it was an accident.
The White House defended it.
Then deleted it and blamed a staffer.
Trump: “I didn’t watch it all.”
That’s the playbook, push it out, see what sticks, then pretend it was an accident.
Power doesn’t self-correct.
A judge ordered DHS to bring 3 families back after finding agents used “lies, deception, and coercion”, including threats of foster care.
That’s not enforcement. It’s leverage.
A judge ordered DHS to bring 3 families back after finding agents used “lies, deception, and coercion”, including threats of foster care.
That’s not enforcement. It’s leverage.
February 6, 2026 at 11:49 PM
Power doesn’t self-correct.
A judge ordered DHS to bring 3 families back after finding agents used “lies, deception, and coercion”, including threats of foster care.
That’s not enforcement. It’s leverage.
A judge ordered DHS to bring 3 families back after finding agents used “lies, deception, and coercion”, including threats of foster care.
That’s not enforcement. It’s leverage.
Measles was eliminated in the U.S. in 2000.
Now the CDC says we’ve already hit 733 cases, about 4× a typical year in just a few weeks.
Not because the virus got smarter.
Because coordination got weaker.
When trust drops below a threshold, old problems come back fast.
Now the CDC says we’ve already hit 733 cases, about 4× a typical year in just a few weeks.
Not because the virus got smarter.
Because coordination got weaker.
When trust drops below a threshold, old problems come back fast.
February 6, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Measles was eliminated in the U.S. in 2000.
Now the CDC says we’ve already hit 733 cases, about 4× a typical year in just a few weeks.
Not because the virus got smarter.
Because coordination got weaker.
When trust drops below a threshold, old problems come back fast.
Now the CDC says we’ve already hit 733 cases, about 4× a typical year in just a few weeks.
Not because the virus got smarter.
Because coordination got weaker.
When trust drops below a threshold, old problems come back fast.
“No formal plans,” they say.
But they “can’t guarantee” ICE won’t be near polls.
That’s the move:
you don’t need action to shift behavior, you just need uncertainty.
But they “can’t guarantee” ICE won’t be near polls.
That’s the move:
you don’t need action to shift behavior, you just need uncertainty.
February 5, 2026 at 11:53 PM
“No formal plans,” they say.
But they “can’t guarantee” ICE won’t be near polls.
That’s the move:
you don’t need action to shift behavior, you just need uncertainty.
But they “can’t guarantee” ICE won’t be near polls.
That’s the move:
you don’t need action to shift behavior, you just need uncertainty.
“Move on” is a power move.
3M Epstein documents released.
Millions more withheld.
And now the president says it’s time to stop looking.
Closure isn’t declared by the people in the files.
It’s declared by the people who survive scrutiny.
3M Epstein documents released.
Millions more withheld.
And now the president says it’s time to stop looking.
Closure isn’t declared by the people in the files.
It’s declared by the people who survive scrutiny.
February 4, 2026 at 5:35 PM
“Move on” is a power move.
3M Epstein documents released.
Millions more withheld.
And now the president says it’s time to stop looking.
Closure isn’t declared by the people in the files.
It’s declared by the people who survive scrutiny.
3M Epstein documents released.
Millions more withheld.
And now the president says it’s time to stop looking.
Closure isn’t declared by the people in the files.
It’s declared by the people who survive scrutiny.
A Mickey bar went $2.75 → $6.50. Annual passes nearly doubled.
That isn’t inflation, it’s pricing power.
As streaming got squeezed, parks became the profit engine.
So Disney leaned into demand-based pricing and paid add-ons.
When experiences replace products, pricing stops having a ceiling.
That isn’t inflation, it’s pricing power.
As streaming got squeezed, parks became the profit engine.
So Disney leaned into demand-based pricing and paid add-ons.
When experiences replace products, pricing stops having a ceiling.
February 4, 2026 at 4:26 PM
A Mickey bar went $2.75 → $6.50. Annual passes nearly doubled.
That isn’t inflation, it’s pricing power.
As streaming got squeezed, parks became the profit engine.
So Disney leaned into demand-based pricing and paid add-ons.
When experiences replace products, pricing stops having a ceiling.
That isn’t inflation, it’s pricing power.
As streaming got squeezed, parks became the profit engine.
So Disney leaned into demand-based pricing and paid add-ons.
When experiences replace products, pricing stops having a ceiling.
Trump wants elections “nationalized,” meaning more federal control over how voting runs.
That’s a centralization move, not a fraud fix.
When control moves up, oversight usually gets harder, not easier.
That’s a centralization move, not a fraud fix.
When control moves up, oversight usually gets harder, not easier.
February 3, 2026 at 1:30 AM
Trump wants elections “nationalized,” meaning more federal control over how voting runs.
That’s a centralization move, not a fraud fix.
When control moves up, oversight usually gets harder, not easier.
That’s a centralization move, not a fraud fix.
When control moves up, oversight usually gets harder, not easier.
SpaceX is acquiring xAI.
If the numbers hold, that’s ~$350B folded into a ~$1.5T rocket company, ~$1.8T total.
Not “AI news.” It’s a power stack: launch, orbit, compute, integrated.
When government demand and capital line up, AI stops being a product and becomes infrastructure.
If the numbers hold, that’s ~$350B folded into a ~$1.5T rocket company, ~$1.8T total.
Not “AI news.” It’s a power stack: launch, orbit, compute, integrated.
When government demand and capital line up, AI stops being a product and becomes infrastructure.
February 2, 2026 at 10:28 PM
SpaceX is acquiring xAI.
If the numbers hold, that’s ~$350B folded into a ~$1.5T rocket company, ~$1.8T total.
Not “AI news.” It’s a power stack: launch, orbit, compute, integrated.
When government demand and capital line up, AI stops being a product and becomes infrastructure.
If the numbers hold, that’s ~$350B folded into a ~$1.5T rocket company, ~$1.8T total.
Not “AI news.” It’s a power stack: launch, orbit, compute, integrated.
When government demand and capital line up, AI stops being a product and becomes infrastructure.
Not a win, but a real signal.
Senate Dems (plus Collins + Murkowski) voted to strip the $75B ICE add-on.
It failed 49–51. Funding stays.
But the vote is on the record, and that’s what campaigns, courts, and headlines run on.
Senate Dems (plus Collins + Murkowski) voted to strip the $75B ICE add-on.
It failed 49–51. Funding stays.
But the vote is on the record, and that’s what campaigns, courts, and headlines run on.
January 31, 2026 at 12:41 AM
Not a win, but a real signal.
Senate Dems (plus Collins + Murkowski) voted to strip the $75B ICE add-on.
It failed 49–51. Funding stays.
But the vote is on the record, and that’s what campaigns, courts, and headlines run on.
Senate Dems (plus Collins + Murkowski) voted to strip the $75B ICE add-on.
It failed 49–51. Funding stays.
But the vote is on the record, and that’s what campaigns, courts, and headlines run on.
A sitting president is suing his own government for $10B.
This isn’t about tax leaks.
It’s about making the state financially afraid of investigating power.
That’s a new move.
This isn’t about tax leaks.
It’s about making the state financially afraid of investigating power.
That’s a new move.
January 30, 2026 at 2:33 AM
A sitting president is suing his own government for $10B.
This isn’t about tax leaks.
It’s about making the state financially afraid of investigating power.
That’s a new move.
This isn’t about tax leaks.
It’s about making the state financially afraid of investigating power.
That’s a new move.
Homan says he’ll “draw down” agents in Minnesota.
The shift looks like: fewer street scenes, more jail notifications and handoffs.
Lower visibility, same enforcement.
This model won’t stay local.
The shift looks like: fewer street scenes, more jail notifications and handoffs.
Lower visibility, same enforcement.
This model won’t stay local.
January 29, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Homan says he’ll “draw down” agents in Minnesota.
The shift looks like: fewer street scenes, more jail notifications and handoffs.
Lower visibility, same enforcement.
This model won’t stay local.
The shift looks like: fewer street scenes, more jail notifications and handoffs.
Lower visibility, same enforcement.
This model won’t stay local.
Half a billion dollars to put troops in U.S. cities, per CBO.
Not for war.
For leverage.
Once this becomes normal, the only question is who gets labeled “the problem” next.
Not for war.
For leverage.
Once this becomes normal, the only question is who gets labeled “the problem” next.
January 29, 2026 at 12:36 AM
Half a billion dollars to put troops in U.S. cities, per CBO.
Not for war.
For leverage.
Once this becomes normal, the only question is who gets labeled “the problem” next.
Not for war.
For leverage.
Once this becomes normal, the only question is who gets labeled “the problem” next.
Administrative leave isn’t accountability.
It’s time-buying.
First “defensive shots.”
Then “one agent.”
Now two on leave, commanders rotated out, language softened.
Not correction.
Containment.
It’s time-buying.
First “defensive shots.”
Then “one agent.”
Now two on leave, commanders rotated out, language softened.
Not correction.
Containment.
January 28, 2026 at 7:39 PM
Administrative leave isn’t accountability.
It’s time-buying.
First “defensive shots.”
Then “one agent.”
Now two on leave, commanders rotated out, language softened.
Not correction.
Containment.
It’s time-buying.
First “defensive shots.”
Then “one agent.”
Now two on leave, commanders rotated out, language softened.
Not correction.
Containment.
The gap matters.
DHS said “defensive shots.”
Congress now gets a report showing two agents fired, no claim Pretti reached for his gun, and evidence handled off-protocol.
This isn’t about one incident.
It’s about how force gets justified after the trigger is pulled.
DHS said “defensive shots.”
Congress now gets a report showing two agents fired, no claim Pretti reached for his gun, and evidence handled off-protocol.
This isn’t about one incident.
It’s about how force gets justified after the trigger is pulled.
January 27, 2026 at 11:49 PM
The gap matters.
DHS said “defensive shots.”
Congress now gets a report showing two agents fired, no claim Pretti reached for his gun, and evidence handled off-protocol.
This isn’t about one incident.
It’s about how force gets justified after the trigger is pulled.
DHS said “defensive shots.”
Congress now gets a report showing two agents fired, no claim Pretti reached for his gun, and evidence handled off-protocol.
This isn’t about one incident.
It’s about how force gets justified after the trigger is pulled.
Texas froze new H-1B visas for state agencies and public universities.
H-1B is how universities and hospitals hire specialized talent they can’t replace quickly.
The impact isn’t political theater, it’s capacity: fewer staff, slower research, longer waits, talent rerouting elsewhere.
H-1B is how universities and hospitals hire specialized talent they can’t replace quickly.
The impact isn’t political theater, it’s capacity: fewer staff, slower research, longer waits, talent rerouting elsewhere.
January 27, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Texas froze new H-1B visas for state agencies and public universities.
H-1B is how universities and hospitals hire specialized talent they can’t replace quickly.
The impact isn’t political theater, it’s capacity: fewer staff, slower research, longer waits, talent rerouting elsewhere.
H-1B is how universities and hospitals hire specialized talent they can’t replace quickly.
The impact isn’t political theater, it’s capacity: fewer staff, slower research, longer waits, talent rerouting elsewhere.
Bovino’s removal isn’t reform.
It’s containment.
Systems don’t admit mistakes.
They remove exposure.
It’s containment.
Systems don’t admit mistakes.
They remove exposure.
January 27, 2026 at 12:52 AM
Bovino’s removal isn’t reform.
It’s containment.
Systems don’t admit mistakes.
They remove exposure.
It’s containment.
Systems don’t admit mistakes.
They remove exposure.
Trump just hiked tariffs on South Korea because their legislature hasn’t approved his deal yet.
That’s not trade policy, it’s a timer.
Vote on his schedule or pay a penalty.
Allies don’t comply to that. They build exits.
That’s not trade policy, it’s a timer.
Vote on his schedule or pay a penalty.
Allies don’t comply to that. They build exits.
January 26, 2026 at 10:39 PM
Trump just hiked tariffs on South Korea because their legislature hasn’t approved his deal yet.
That’s not trade policy, it’s a timer.
Vote on his schedule or pay a penalty.
Allies don’t comply to that. They build exits.
That’s not trade policy, it’s a timer.
Vote on his schedule or pay a penalty.
Allies don’t comply to that. They build exits.
Federal agents shot and killed a man in Minneapolis today, police say.
DHS claims he was armed. Video shows a struggle. Details are still coming in.
DHS claims he was armed. Video shows a struggle. Details are still coming in.
Police chief calls for calm after a man is shot and killed during Minneapolis immigration crackdown
Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara is uring people to remain peaceful and not to destroy the city after federal immigration officers shot and killed a man Saturday in Minneapolis.
apnews.com
January 24, 2026 at 6:12 PM
Federal agents shot and killed a man in Minneapolis today, police say.
DHS claims he was armed. Video shows a struggle. Details are still coming in.
DHS claims he was armed. Video shows a struggle. Details are still coming in.
Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs over its China deal.
That won’t make Ottawa blink, it makes them hedge.
The next move is quiet: contracts rewritten, routes rerouted, the U.S. treated as volatile.
That won’t make Ottawa blink, it makes them hedge.
The next move is quiet: contracts rewritten, routes rerouted, the U.S. treated as volatile.
January 24, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs over its China deal.
That won’t make Ottawa blink, it makes them hedge.
The next move is quiet: contracts rewritten, routes rerouted, the U.S. treated as volatile.
That won’t make Ottawa blink, it makes them hedge.
The next move is quiet: contracts rewritten, routes rerouted, the U.S. treated as volatile.
The U.S. just finalized its WHO withdrawal.
You don’t “own the libs” by walking out of the world’s outbreak early warning system.
You just make Americans slower to see the next threat, and more expensive to protect.
You don’t “own the libs” by walking out of the world’s outbreak early warning system.
You just make Americans slower to see the next threat, and more expensive to protect.
January 22, 2026 at 10:44 PM
The U.S. just finalized its WHO withdrawal.
You don’t “own the libs” by walking out of the world’s outbreak early warning system.
You just make Americans slower to see the next threat, and more expensive to protect.
You don’t “own the libs” by walking out of the world’s outbreak early warning system.
You just make Americans slower to see the next threat, and more expensive to protect.
ICE claims it can break into homes without a judge’s warrant.
That’s not enforcement, that’s executive search power.
Once the door opens without a judge, the Constitution is optional.
That’s not enforcement, that’s executive search power.
Once the door opens without a judge, the Constitution is optional.
January 21, 2026 at 11:42 PM
ICE claims it can break into homes without a judge’s warrant.
That’s not enforcement, that’s executive search power.
Once the door opens without a judge, the Constitution is optional.
That’s not enforcement, that’s executive search power.
Once the door opens without a judge, the Constitution is optional.
Trump says he “won’t use force” on Greenland. Fine.
That doesn’t mean de escalation, it means switching tools, tariffs, leverage, and “negotiations” where allies pay to prove loyalty.
Force off the table, coercion stays on it.
That doesn’t mean de escalation, it means switching tools, tariffs, leverage, and “negotiations” where allies pay to prove loyalty.
Force off the table, coercion stays on it.
January 21, 2026 at 3:48 PM
Trump says he “won’t use force” on Greenland. Fine.
That doesn’t mean de escalation, it means switching tools, tariffs, leverage, and “negotiations” where allies pay to prove loyalty.
Force off the table, coercion stays on it.
That doesn’t mean de escalation, it means switching tools, tariffs, leverage, and “negotiations” where allies pay to prove loyalty.
Force off the table, coercion stays on it.
NOAA says we’re in a rare G4 geomagnetic storm (strongest since 2003).
If you’re in Minnesota or the northern tier, check the sky tonight.
Best window: ~10pm–2am local, away from city lights, look north.
Can’t see it? Point your phone camera at the sky first.
If you’re in Minnesota or the northern tier, check the sky tonight.
Best window: ~10pm–2am local, away from city lights, look north.
Can’t see it? Point your phone camera at the sky first.
January 20, 2026 at 12:22 AM
NOAA says we’re in a rare G4 geomagnetic storm (strongest since 2003).
If you’re in Minnesota or the northern tier, check the sky tonight.
Best window: ~10pm–2am local, away from city lights, look north.
Can’t see it? Point your phone camera at the sky first.
If you’re in Minnesota or the northern tier, check the sky tonight.
Best window: ~10pm–2am local, away from city lights, look north.
Can’t see it? Point your phone camera at the sky first.