Jan J. J. Groen
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jjjgroen.bsky.social
Jan J. J. Groen
@jjjgroen.bsky.social
340 followers 85 following 420 posts
Economist. Formerly @newyorkfed.bsky.social and @bankofengland.bsky.social Interests: #inflation #economy #forecasting. Econ PhD @tinbergeninstitute.bsky.social Views are my own.

https://substack.com/@macromarketnotes
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jjjgroen.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/janjjgro...

#federalreserve #economy #inflation
September 2025 FOMC Meeting Postmortem
The Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected. The statement, updated SEP and press conference all suggests that aggressive future policy easing is unlikely.
open.substack.com
September 19, 2025 at 1:46 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/janjjgro...

#jobsreport #payrolls #unemployment #wages
August Payrolls: More Easing
Payrolls growth in August again disappointed, and the unemployment rate ticked up. Wage growth picked up also with the trend elevated vs inflation target pace.
open.substack.com
September 6, 2025 at 6:22 AM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
#Payrolls grew solidly in June and the #Unemployment rate ticked down. Wage growth slowed but the trend remains elevated vs. #inflation target pace.
#JobsReport

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/june-payro...
June Payrolls: Carry On
Payrolls growth in June remained solid, and the unemployment rate ticked down. Wage growth slowed but the trend remains elevated vs inflation target pace.
janjjgroen.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 12:19 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Some thoughts on this week's June FOMC meeting.

#FOMC #feddecision #Economy

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/june-2025-...
June 2025 FOMC Meeting Postmortem
The Fed kept rates on hold. The statement, updated forecasts and press conference suggests that policy easing is unlikely this year.
janjjgroen.substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 3:15 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Recent #inflation suggest that it has not yet fully been hit by tariffs given elevated inventories + still low effective tariffs. With #unemployment gradually drifting up + elevated inflation expectations, #FederalReserve keeping rates stable today aligns well with fundamentals.
June 18, 2025 at 5:58 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Some thoughts on the main U.S. 'hard data' releases this week: the May CPI report and jobless claims into early June. #CPI #joblessclaims #unemployment

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/may-cpi-an...
May CPI & Jobless Claims Trends
May core inflation was weaker than expected; trimmed mean measures also eased. Going into June initial jobless claims still pointed to more layoffs.
janjjgroen.substack.com
June 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
May #Payrolls growth was solid, and the #Unemployment rate was unchanged. Wage growth accelerated and still runs above trend. #JobsReport

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/may-payrol...
May Payrolls: Still Steady
May payrolls growth was close to expected, and the unemployment rate was unchanged, with both the job-finding and job-exit rates higher. Wage growth accelerated and still runs above trend.
janjjgroen.substack.com
June 6, 2025 at 8:56 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Near-term trends in underlying inflation trends firmed in today's April #PCE report. #Consumption growth slowed, but wage income growth was stronger. #inflation #savings #income

A 🧵but for more details go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/april-pers...
April Personal Income & Outlays: Cautious Households
Near-term trends in underlying inflation firmed and remained above 2%. Consumption growth slowed while savings grew, but wage income growth was stronger.
janjjgroen.substack.com
May 30, 2025 at 10:42 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
#NumbersDay
May 9, 2025 at 7:02 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Labor productivity declined in Q1, as the labor share grew faster. With productivity no longer a tailwind it's a non-factor in helping to absorb the #Tariff shock. #labor #Productivity #wages #inflation

A 🧵but for more details go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/q1-2025-pr...
Q1 2025 Productivity & Wages: No More Boost
Labor productivity growth eased below trend, with the opposite happening for the labor share. The latter had been the main driver of wage growth in 2024.
janjjgroen.substack.com
May 9, 2025 at 4:34 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
May 2025 FOMC Meeting
#FOMC #FederalReserve #inflation

A🧵but for more detail visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/may-2025-f...
May 2025 FOMC Meeting
Given elevated underlying inflation and a resilient labor market the Fed was bound to stay on hold. Today's meeting confirmed it will be on hold for a while.
janjjgroen.substack.com
May 7, 2025 at 11:43 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
April #Payrolls growth was solid and the #Unemployment rate was unchanged despite a declining job-finding rate. Wage growth eased but still runs above trend. #JobsReport #economy

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/april-payr...
April Payrolls: Resilient For Now
April payrolls growth was solid, and the unemployment rate was unchanged despite a declining job-finding rate. Wage growth eased but still runs above trend.
janjjgroen.substack.com
May 2, 2025 at 5:23 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Near-term trends in underlying #inflation eased in today's #PCE report but remained elevated above 2%. #consumption growth picked up, but #wage income growth remained tepid.

A 🧵but for more detail go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/march-pers...
March Personal Income & Outlays: A Good Month
Near-term trends in underlying inflation eased but remained elevated above 2%. Consumption growth picked up.
janjjgroen.substack.com
May 1, 2025 at 1:12 AM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
1/ After nominating Burns '“My relations with the Fed,” Nixon said, “will be different than they were
with [prev. Fed chair] Bill Martin there. He was always six months too late doing anything. I’m counting on you, Arthur, to keep us out of a recession.”' www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
American Economic Association
aeaweb.org
April 21, 2025 at 5:37 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
My 🪙🪙 on the main U.S. 'hard data' releases this and last week: the March CPI and retail reports. #CPI #RetailSales #inflation #FederalReserve #Dollar

A 🧵but for more details go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/march-cpi-...
March CPI & Retail Sales
March core inflation came in weaker than thought, but trimmed mean measure were firmer. Real retail sales slowed in March as auto sales contracted.
janjjgroen.substack.com
April 16, 2025 at 8:22 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
March #payrolls growth accelerated, but the #unemployment rate edged up slightly despite an improved job-finding rate. Wage growth remains sticky above trend. #JobsReport #economy

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/march-payr...
March Payrolls: An Uneasy Equilibrium
March payrolls growth accelerated, but the unemployment rate went up slightly despite an improved job-finding rate. Wage growth remains sticky above trend.
janjjgroen.substack.com
April 4, 2025 at 8:00 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Near-term underlying #inflation trends again firmed up in today's February #PCE report. #Consumption and wage income growth rates slowed anew.

A 🧵but for more detail go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/feb-person...
Feb. Personal Income & Outlays: Smells Like Stagflation
Near-term trends in underlying inflation again firmed up with annual trends stuck above 2%. Consumption and wage income growth rates slowed anew.
janjjgroen.substack.com
March 28, 2025 at 5:23 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Interesting side effect of elevated trade policy uncertainty impacting recent monthly trade data (though not, by construction, GDP Net Exports). #Tariffs #tariffwar #goldprice

www.wsj.com/podcasts/the...
Why Gold Bars Are Flying Over the Atlantic - The Journal. - WSJ Podcasts
If you landed on a flight from Europe to New York recently, you might have been an unwitting participant in a high-stakes, high-altitude gold trade. WSJ’s Joe Wallace explains what's going on with the...
www.wsj.com
March 28, 2025 at 12:54 AM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
From (apparently) a top buyside economist … totally nonsensical. #tariffs #UStradepolicy #VAT

www.ft.com/content/1de4...
A 25% tariff on Europe is only fair
The US needs to act over the competitive advantage the EU gives its companies in areas like value added taxes
www.ft.com
March 28, 2025 at 12:45 AM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
March 2025 FOMC Meeting Postmortem

#FOMC #FederalReserve #inflation #economy

A🧵but for more detail visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/march-2025...
March 2025 FOMC Meeting Postmortem
The Fed kept rates on hold again. The post-meeting statement, updated forecasts and press conference suggests not a lot of policy easing, if at all, is in the pipeline for 2025.
janjjgroen.substack.com
March 20, 2025 at 12:24 AM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
March FOMC Meeting Preview

A 🧵with some thoughts ahead of tomorrow's March FOMC rate decision. #FederalReserve #FOMC #economy

Let's go but for more details (incl. my view on Feb. #retailsales) go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/feb-retail...
Feb Retail Sales and March FOMC Preview
February real retail sales on goods excl. autos were strong, but real bar/restaurant spending continues to contract. The Fed will likely stay on hold.
janjjgroen.substack.com
March 18, 2025 at 8:10 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
FYI and probably not worth much: my 2🪙on this week's main data releases: #CPI, #jobless claims, preliminary March #consumers #confidence

A 🧵but for more details go to Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/feb-cpi-in...
Feb CPI, Initial March Sentiment and Jobless Claims Trends
February core inflation eased but trimmed means remain firm. Consumer sentiment turned stagflationary. Jobless claims continued to point to stable unemployment.
janjjgroen.substack.com
March 15, 2025 at 5:57 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Today's February jobs report saw reasonable payrolls growth, but the unemployment rate went up due to a declining job-finding rate. Wage growth remains sticky above trend. #JobsReport #payrolls #unemployment

A 🧵but for more details visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/feb-payrol...
Feb. Payrolls: Still Stable
February payrolls growth was reasonable, but the unemployment rate ticked up due to a declining job-finding rate. Wage growth remains sticky above trend.
janjjgroen.substack.com
March 7, 2025 at 6:15 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
#Numbersday
jjjgroen.bsky.social Jan J. J. Groen @jjjgroen.bsky.social · Feb 28
Near-term trends in underlying #inflation continued to rise in the January #PCE report with annual trends now stable in the 2.5%-2.6% range. #Consumption spending slowed, and #wage incomes were revised down.

A 🧵but for detail visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/jan-person...
Jan. Personal Income & Outlays: A Cautious Consumer
Near-term trends in underlying inflation continue to rise with annual trends above 2%. Consumption growth slowed as wage incomes were downgraded.
janjjgroen.substack.com
March 1, 2025 at 5:51 PM
jjjgroen.bsky.social
Near-term trends in underlying #inflation continued to rise in the January #PCE report with annual trends now stable in the 2.5%-2.6% range. #Consumption spending slowed, and #wage incomes were revised down.

A 🧵but for detail visit Macro Market Notes: janjjgroen.substack.com/p/jan-person...
Jan. Personal Income & Outlays: A Cautious Consumer
Near-term trends in underlying inflation continue to rise with annual trends above 2%. Consumption growth slowed as wage incomes were downgraded.
janjjgroen.substack.com
February 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM