Jack Andolina
@jandolina.bsky.social
Research Associate at Bright Line Watch/Dartmouth College
B.S. UC San Diego
B.S. UC San Diego
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Survey of political science faculty: Many potential actions by the Trump administration were rated as extraordinary or serious threats to democracy.
(@johncarey.bsky.social, @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Susan Stokes, @jandolina.bsky.social)
More:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251005
(@johncarey.bsky.social, @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Susan Stokes, @jandolina.bsky.social)
More:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251005
October 5, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Survey of political science faculty: Many potential actions by the Trump administration were rated as extraordinary or serious threats to democracy.
(@johncarey.bsky.social, @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Susan Stokes, @jandolina.bsky.social)
More:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251005
(@johncarey.bsky.social, @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Susan Stokes, @jandolina.bsky.social)
More:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251005
Reposted by Jack Andolina
For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
October 1, 2025 at 6:08 PM
For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
October 1, 2025 at 2:19 PM
New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.
Reposted by Jack Andolina
-Probabilities of negative events broadly consistent between poli sci experts & forecasters on Metaculus prediction platform after correction for expert pessimism
-AI forecasts from the startup Mantic lower
-5 highly threatening events have median p>.5
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-AI forecasts from the startup Mantic lower
-5 highly threatening events have median p>.5
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
-Probabilities of negative events broadly consistent between poli sci experts & forecasters on Metaculus prediction platform after correction for expert pessimism
-AI forecasts from the startup Mantic lower
-5 highly threatening events have median p>.5
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-AI forecasts from the startup Mantic lower
-5 highly threatening events have median p>.5
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
-Partisans reverse their stance on tit-for-tat democratic norm violations depending on which party is retaliating
-Support has increased since 2021 among Democrats and Republicans for illegal redistricting and restricting or shutting down Fox News (for Ds) / MSNBC (for Rs)
-Support has increased since 2021 among Democrats and Republicans for illegal redistricting and restricting or shutting down Fox News (for Ds) / MSNBC (for Rs)
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
-Partisans reverse their stance on tit-for-tat democratic norm violations depending on which party is retaliating
-Support has increased since 2021 among Democrats and Republicans for illegal redistricting and restricting or shutting down Fox News (for Ds) / MSNBC (for Rs)
-Support has increased since 2021 among Democrats and Republicans for illegal redistricting and restricting or shutting down Fox News (for Ds) / MSNBC (for Rs)
Reposted by Jack Andolina
-Experts see the Texas redistricting plan as a threat to democracy but are split over the California plan
-They expect to rate US democracy lower in 2027 if only Texas redistricts than a scenario in which both states do so
-Republicans support partisan redistricting more in general than do Democrats
-They expect to rate US democracy lower in 2027 if only Texas redistricts than a scenario in which both states do so
-Republicans support partisan redistricting more in general than do Democrats
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
-Experts see the Texas redistricting plan as a threat to democracy but are split over the California plan
-They expect to rate US democracy lower in 2027 if only Texas redistricts than a scenario in which both states do so
-Republicans support partisan redistricting more in general than do Democrats
-They expect to rate US democracy lower in 2027 if only Texas redistricts than a scenario in which both states do so
-Republicans support partisan redistricting more in general than do Democrats
Reposted by Jack Andolina
-Many potential actions by the Trump administration were rated as extraordinary or serious threats to democracy by 89% of experts or more
-These potential actions dominated the list of the events most frequently rated by experts as posing extraordinary or serious threats to democracy since January
-These potential actions dominated the list of the events most frequently rated by experts as posing extraordinary or serious threats to democracy since January
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
-Many potential actions by the Trump administration were rated as extraordinary or serious threats to democracy by 89% of experts or more
-These potential actions dominated the list of the events most frequently rated by experts as posing extraordinary or serious threats to democracy since January
-These potential actions dominated the list of the events most frequently rated by experts as posing extraordinary or serious threats to democracy since January
Reposted by Jack Andolina
-Numerous events since April were rated as threats to democracy by 80% of experts or more
-Many of those events were widely approved by Republicans
-However, only one is among the ten most often rated by experts as posing an extraordinary or serious threat to democracy since Trump took office again
-Many of those events were widely approved by Republicans
-However, only one is among the ten most often rated by experts as posing an extraordinary or serious threat to democracy since Trump took office again
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
-Numerous events since April were rated as threats to democracy by 80% of experts or more
-Many of those events were widely approved by Republicans
-However, only one is among the ten most often rated by experts as posing an extraordinary or serious threat to democracy since Trump took office again
-Many of those events were widely approved by Republicans
-However, only one is among the ten most often rated by experts as posing an extraordinary or serious threat to democracy since Trump took office again
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Evaluations of US democracy were unchanged after Kirk's shooting, but experts less likely to say the govt. is effectively preventing political violence
Other findings:
-Most experts rated the shooting as a threat to democracy
-Almost all Americans disapproved of the shooting, but 12% of Ds approved
Other findings:
-Most experts rated the shooting as a threat to democracy
-Almost all Americans disapproved of the shooting, but 12% of Ds approved
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Evaluations of US democracy were unchanged after Kirk's shooting, but experts less likely to say the govt. is effectively preventing political violence
Other findings:
-Most experts rated the shooting as a threat to democracy
-Almost all Americans disapproved of the shooting, but 12% of Ds approved
Other findings:
-Most experts rated the shooting as a threat to democracy
-Almost all Americans disapproved of the shooting, but 12% of Ds approved
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Expert ratings of US upholding specific democratic principles mostly stable, but significant declines in
-toleration of peaceful protest
-not using government agencies to punish political opponents
-fair electoral district boundaries.
Public: R ratings largely stable, Ds see declines in many areas
-toleration of peaceful protest
-not using government agencies to punish political opponents
-fair electoral district boundaries.
Public: R ratings largely stable, Ds see declines in many areas
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Expert ratings of US upholding specific democratic principles mostly stable, but significant declines in
-toleration of peaceful protest
-not using government agencies to punish political opponents
-fair electoral district boundaries.
Public: R ratings largely stable, Ds see declines in many areas
-toleration of peaceful protest
-not using government agencies to punish political opponents
-fair electoral district boundaries.
Public: R ratings largely stable, Ds see declines in many areas
Reposted by Jack Andolina
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017
Full thread of results below
Reposted by Jack Andolina
A new report from Bright Line Watch finds experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy. The rating is dragged down by Trump's attacks on institutions, a weak legislature, political violence, and partisan gerrymandering www.gelliottmorris.com/p/experts-no...
Experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy
Experts say political violence, Trump's attacks against non-partisan agencies and institutions, and partisan gerrymandering are their top concerns
www.gelliottmorris.com
October 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
A new report from Bright Line Watch finds experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy. The rating is dragged down by Trump's attacks on institutions, a weak legislature, political violence, and partisan gerrymandering www.gelliottmorris.com/p/experts-no...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
September 17, 2025 at 1:35 PM
New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...
Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Read our latest Bright Line Watch report for more on faculty self-censoring brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d... (surely much worse at UF)
Brutal account of what it’s like to teach at the University of Florida right now in the NYT—extraordinary climate of fear. People afraid to say intersectional and talk about lynchings. Fake students trying to entrap Muslim faculty or just making things up altogether. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/o...
May 7, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Read our latest Bright Line Watch report for more on faculty self-censoring brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d... (surely much worse at UF)
Will RFK's HHS commission conduct or publish a study that shows a link between vaccines and autism?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...
www.metaculus.com
May 5, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Will RFK's HHS commission conduct or publish a study that shows a link between vaccines and autism?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Read the whole report for more! brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
Threats to democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days | Bright Line Watch
brightlinewatch.org
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Read the whole report for more! brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Faculty who report self-censoring mostly cite the political climate beyond campus (71%). Key fears:
-Harassment (64%)
-Professional harm (48%)
-Legal sanctions (26%)
-Violence (19%)
Notably, non-citizens overwhelmingly cite immigration status fears (75%).
-Harassment (64%)
-Professional harm (48%)
-Legal sanctions (26%)
-Violence (19%)
Notably, non-citizens overwhelmingly cite immigration status fears (75%).
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Faculty who report self-censoring mostly cite the political climate beyond campus (71%). Key fears:
-Harassment (64%)
-Professional harm (48%)
-Legal sanctions (26%)
-Violence (19%)
Notably, non-citizens overwhelmingly cite immigration status fears (75%).
-Harassment (64%)
-Professional harm (48%)
-Legal sanctions (26%)
-Violence (19%)
Notably, non-citizens overwhelmingly cite immigration status fears (75%).
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Many political science faculty perceive declines in academic freedom since January, especially on Israel/Palestine (43%) & DEI (42%). Self-censorship reported in extramural speech (55%), communicating with students (40%), teaching (33%), and research (20%).
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Many political science faculty perceive declines in academic freedom since January, especially on Israel/Palestine (43%) & DEI (42%). Self-censorship reported in extramural speech (55%), communicating with students (40%), teaching (33%), and research (20%).
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Overwhelmingly rated as serious threats to democracy
-Failure to return Albrego Garcia
-EO targeting ActBlue
-Withdrawing univ funds/limiting academic freedom
Near-unanimous concern over potential actions:
-Sending citizens to foreign prisons
-Mass denaturalizations
-Partisan judicial impeachment
-Failure to return Albrego Garcia
-EO targeting ActBlue
-Withdrawing univ funds/limiting academic freedom
Near-unanimous concern over potential actions:
-Sending citizens to foreign prisons
-Mass denaturalizations
-Partisan judicial impeachment
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Overwhelmingly rated as serious threats to democracy
-Failure to return Albrego Garcia
-EO targeting ActBlue
-Withdrawing univ funds/limiting academic freedom
Near-unanimous concern over potential actions:
-Sending citizens to foreign prisons
-Mass denaturalizations
-Partisan judicial impeachment
-Failure to return Albrego Garcia
-EO targeting ActBlue
-Withdrawing univ funds/limiting academic freedom
Near-unanimous concern over potential actions:
-Sending citizens to foreign prisons
-Mass denaturalizations
-Partisan judicial impeachment
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Across 31 democratic principles, experts see substantial declines since Trump returned to power in protections for unpopular speech or expression, govt. agencies not being used to punish political opponents, freedom of the press, the impartiality of criminal investigations & judicial independence
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Across 31 democratic principles, experts see substantial declines since Trump returned to power in protections for unpopular speech or expression, govt. agencies not being used to punish political opponents, freedom of the press, the impartiality of criminal investigations & judicial independence
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Overall ratings of US democracy on 0-100 scale fell significantly among both experts and the public. Public ratings dropped below midpoint (49 in April) for 1st time since 2017 survey began. Even R ratings fell (59 -> 56). US now rated by experts just above Israel, below Mexico and Poland.
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Overall ratings of US democracy on 0-100 scale fell significantly among both experts and the public. Public ratings dropped below midpoint (49 in April) for 1st time since 2017 survey began. Even R ratings fell (59 -> 56). US now rated by experts just above Israel, below Mexico and Poland.
Reposted by Jack Andolina
🚨New Bright Line Watch report on the state of US democracy
-Democracy ratings ↓ w/experts & public, including Rs
-Performance ↓ in numerous areas such as free speech/press, abuse of government powers
-Faculty report academic freedom decline & self-censorship
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
🧵
-Democracy ratings ↓ w/experts & public, including Rs
-Performance ↓ in numerous areas such as free speech/press, abuse of government powers
-Faculty report academic freedom decline & self-censorship
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
🧵
May 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
🚨New Bright Line Watch report on the state of US democracy
-Democracy ratings ↓ w/experts & public, including Rs
-Performance ↓ in numerous areas such as free speech/press, abuse of government powers
-Faculty report academic freedom decline & self-censorship
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
🧵
-Democracy ratings ↓ w/experts & public, including Rs
-Performance ↓ in numerous areas such as free speech/press, abuse of government powers
-Faculty report academic freedom decline & self-censorship
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
🧵
Forecast question live! Will Santos receive a pardon or commutation? www.metaculus.com/questions/37...
www.metaculus.com
April 27, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Forecast question live! Will Santos receive a pardon or commutation? www.metaculus.com/questions/37...
Reposted by Jack Andolina
Over 25% of Canadians are being exposed to more sophisticated and more politically polarizing fake content. These ads don’t just defraud individuals—they risk undermining trust in journalism and the democratic process, spreading misleading political content at a critical time ⚠️
April 18, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Over 25% of Canadians are being exposed to more sophisticated and more politically polarizing fake content. These ads don’t just defraud individuals—they risk undermining trust in journalism and the democratic process, spreading misleading political content at a critical time ⚠️
A site posing as a "Trusted Source for News on the Conservative Canadian Party" is publishing AI-generated articles that are spreading rapidly on social media. AI is enabling bad actors to produce highly convincing, well-written misinformation at scale.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
How an obscure website with AI-generated articles is spreading false information about election candidates | CBC News
During the federal election campaign, many Canadians want information about the personal finances of Canadian party leaders. Here's how one obscure website became one of the most influential sources o...
www.cbc.ca
April 4, 2025 at 5:12 PM
A site posing as a "Trusted Source for News on the Conservative Canadian Party" is publishing AI-generated articles that are spreading rapidly on social media. AI is enabling bad actors to produce highly convincing, well-written misinformation at scale.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...