Isaac Hale
@isaachale.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Politics at Occidental College. Formerly: UCSB postdoc, UC Davis lecturer, and Tulchin Research pollster. 🏳️🌈
https://www.isaacdhale.com/
https://www.isaacdhale.com/
Reposted by Isaac Hale
Underappreciated 2024 trend: Relative dropoff in Dem vs Rep turnout among younger reg. voters. Easy to mistake this as a swing right but it’s turnout.
If young Dems matched Rep turnout rates, they’d have netted 2.5-3.5M votes—might not have flipped election but likely would’ve swung popular vote.
If young Dems matched Rep turnout rates, they’d have netted 2.5-3.5M votes—might not have flipped election but likely would’ve swung popular vote.
June 29, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Underappreciated 2024 trend: Relative dropoff in Dem vs Rep turnout among younger reg. voters. Easy to mistake this as a swing right but it’s turnout.
If young Dems matched Rep turnout rates, they’d have netted 2.5-3.5M votes—might not have flipped election but likely would’ve swung popular vote.
If young Dems matched Rep turnout rates, they’d have netted 2.5-3.5M votes—might not have flipped election but likely would’ve swung popular vote.
This fascinating new study shows that flu vaccine hesitancy has spiked among Republicans since COVID. Plus, it’s got really impressive panel data going back to 2015!
There's been a lot of research showing increased vaccine hesitancy attitudes among Republicans since COVID-19. My new paper shows that this is reflected in post-COVID Flu vaccine behavior.
academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/a...
academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/a...
The politicization of influenza: partisan changes in flu vaccination before and after COVID-19
AbstractBackground. Democrats are more likely to be vaccinated for COVID-19 than Republicans. It is unknown if political polarization surrounding the COVID
academic.oup.com
May 30, 2025 at 5:18 PM
This fascinating new study shows that flu vaccine hesitancy has spiked among Republicans since COVID. Plus, it’s got really impressive panel data going back to 2015!
Reposted by Isaac Hale
Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social
NEW!
How do interest group endorsements shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale & Simmons find that pro-reform messages from interest groups increase support for voting rights legislation - but only among Democrats
@algaraca.bsky.social #PoliticalScience #PublicOpinion
How do interest group endorsements shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale & Simmons find that pro-reform messages from interest groups increase support for voting rights legislation - but only among Democrats
@algaraca.bsky.social #PoliticalScience #PublicOpinion
May 5, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social
Reposted by Isaac Hale
It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics
Our one-of-a-kind collection spans from 2008 to the present
the-db.co
April 24, 2025 at 4:36 PM
It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
Reposted by Isaac Hale
NEW PAPER: Trapped in a Two-Party System by Professor Steven Taylor looks at how our country's two party system is truly exceptional — and not in a good way. No other major democracy has such complete dominance by only two parties.
Trapped in a Two-Party System
Under proportional representation, minority-preferred candidates tend to win even more seats than under single-member districts.
buff.ly
March 22, 2025 at 1:00 AM
NEW PAPER: Trapped in a Two-Party System by Professor Steven Taylor looks at how our country's two party system is truly exceptional — and not in a good way. No other major democracy has such complete dominance by only two parties.
Reposted by Isaac Hale
Even as small donors flooded in, campaign finance inequality hit record highs in 2024. For the first time, the top 0.01% (1 in 10K voters) share exceeds 50% of $s. The top 400 donors now exceed 25%.
Citizens United opened the door, but soaring wealth inequality is what's driving these extremes.
Citizens United opened the door, but soaring wealth inequality is what's driving these extremes.
November 14, 2024 at 10:55 PM
Even as small donors flooded in, campaign finance inequality hit record highs in 2024. For the first time, the top 0.01% (1 in 10K voters) share exceeds 50% of $s. The top 400 donors now exceed 25%.
Citizens United opened the door, but soaring wealth inequality is what's driving these extremes.
Citizens United opened the door, but soaring wealth inequality is what's driving these extremes.