Carlos Algara
@algaraca.bsky.social
Political Scientist/Assistant Professor, Claremont Graduate University | 2019-20 APSA Congressional Fellow | Optimistic @WSUcougars & @Mariners fan | https://calgara.github.io
Pinned
Carlos Algara
@algaraca.bsky.social
· Apr 15
How an Independent Study Project Became a Published Election Forecast | Claremont Graduate UniversityClaremont Graduate University
www.cgu.edu
Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted.
We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk
Fun collaboration!
www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk
Fun collaboration!
www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
Now that the 2025 cycle is complete, fun to look ahead to the 2026 midterms in the U.S. Senate.
Fun talking with @nationaljournal.com on the state of play for the Senate majority in 2026 & even 2028.
TLDR; Democratic majority might be a two-cycle project.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
Fun talking with @nationaljournal.com on the state of play for the Senate majority in 2026 & even 2028.
TLDR; Democratic majority might be a two-cycle project.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math
The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026.
www.nationaljournal.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Now that the 2025 cycle is complete, fun to look ahead to the 2026 midterms in the U.S. Senate.
Fun talking with @nationaljournal.com on the state of play for the Senate majority in 2026 & even 2028.
TLDR; Democratic majority might be a two-cycle project.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
Fun talking with @nationaljournal.com on the state of play for the Senate majority in 2026 & even 2028.
TLDR; Democratic majority might be a two-cycle project.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...
What an incredible public good and contribution!
we have been working on this new polling aggregation website for a few months now, and are excited to share it with the world! plenty more features and polls to come.
new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news
October 9, 2025 at 3:26 PM
What an incredible public good and contribution!
Reposted by Carlos Algara
For public policy scholars: JPIPE published our article that uses machine learning to code the universe of congressional and state legislative data since 2009 by the Comparative Agenda Project policy codes. That's 1.68 million bills. OPEN-ACCESS here: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
October 1, 2025 at 2:24 PM
For public policy scholars: JPIPE published our article that uses machine learning to code the universe of congressional and state legislative data since 2009 by the Comparative Agenda Project policy codes. That's 1.68 million bills. OPEN-ACCESS here: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social
NEW!
How do interest group endorsements shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale & Simmons find that pro-reform messages from interest groups increase support for voting rights legislation - but only among Democrats
@algaraca.bsky.social #PoliticalScience #PublicOpinion
How do interest group endorsements shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale & Simmons find that pro-reform messages from interest groups increase support for voting rights legislation - but only among Democrats
@algaraca.bsky.social #PoliticalScience #PublicOpinion
May 5, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social
Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted.
We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk
Fun collaboration!
www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk
Fun collaboration!
www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
How an Independent Study Project Became a Published Election Forecast | Claremont Graduate UniversityClaremont Graduate University
www.cgu.edu
April 15, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted.
We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk
Fun collaboration!
www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk
Fun collaboration!
www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
Great to be featured in this @nytimes.com piece highlighting incredible continuation of partisan continuity in county-level voting patterns during the 2024 elections.
Also neat to see our @electoralstudies.bsky.social data used for terrific data viz for public use.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Also neat to see our @electoralstudies.bsky.social data used for terrific data viz for public use.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Did Republicans Take Washington in a Landslide? Not So Much
President-elect Donald J. Trump was the first Republican to win the popular vote in two decades, but by only a 1.5-point margin, the narrowest since 2000.
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Great to be featured in this @nytimes.com piece highlighting incredible continuation of partisan continuity in county-level voting patterns during the 2024 elections.
Also neat to see our @electoralstudies.bsky.social data used for terrific data viz for public use.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Also neat to see our @electoralstudies.bsky.social data used for terrific data viz for public use.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Congratulations to Senator Thune, the U.S. Senate’s Majority Leader in the 119th Congress.
Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election.
There’s a life lesson there!
Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election.
There’s a life lesson there!
November 13, 2024 at 6:13 PM
Congratulations to Senator Thune, the U.S. Senate’s Majority Leader in the 119th Congress.
Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election.
There’s a life lesson there!
Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election.
There’s a life lesson there!
Excited to see work w/@edwardheadington.bsky.social & others using new data on party & POTUS brands since 1938 to predict 2024 elexs at POTUS & congressional levels out @pspolisci.bsky.social!
Project stemmed from independent study w/talented
CGU students; neat experience!
🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc
Project stemmed from independent study w/talented
CGU students; neat experience!
🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc
Forecasting Partisan Collective Accountability During the 2024 U.S. Presidential & Congressional Elections | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
Forecasting Partisan Collective Accountability During the 2024 U.S. Presidential & Congressional Elections
tinyurl.com
October 25, 2024 at 6:58 PM
Excited to see work w/@edwardheadington.bsky.social & others using new data on party & POTUS brands since 1938 to predict 2024 elexs at POTUS & congressional levels out @pspolisci.bsky.social!
Project stemmed from independent study w/talented
CGU students; neat experience!
🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc
Project stemmed from independent study w/talented
CGU students; neat experience!
🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc
Excited to share new work in the Journal of Political Marketing w/terrific grad student Seon Bae.
Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority.
🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c
Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority.
🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c
July 6, 2024 at 6:04 PM
Excited to share new work in the Journal of Political Marketing w/terrific grad student Seon Bae.
Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority.
🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c
Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority.
🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c
Excited to see our article out at JPIPE, especially in the issue commemorating the 30th anniversary of Cox & McCubbins' Legislative Leviathan.
Josh Ryan & I ask are there exogenous sources of variation in ideological policy concessions the majority makes to the minority in Congress?
Yes!
1/2
Josh Ryan & I ask are there exogenous sources of variation in ideological policy concessions the majority makes to the minority in Congress?
Yes!
1/2
February 21, 2024 at 4:43 PM
Excited to see our article out at JPIPE, especially in the issue commemorating the 30th anniversary of Cox & McCubbins' Legislative Leviathan.
Josh Ryan & I ask are there exogenous sources of variation in ideological policy concessions the majority makes to the minority in Congress?
Yes!
1/2
Josh Ryan & I ask are there exogenous sources of variation in ideological policy concessions the majority makes to the minority in Congress?
Yes!
1/2
Interesting new poll on the mass public's approval of the U.S. Congress...but is 8% the new "normal?"
Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022.
8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!
Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022.
8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!
October 25, 2023 at 12:25 AM
Interesting new poll on the mass public's approval of the U.S. Congress...but is 8% the new "normal?"
Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022.
8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!
Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022.
8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!
Great opportunity for first post on BlueSky!
Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social .
Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!
Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social .
Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!
Check out this new special issue in Electoral Studies: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/elec... It contains 7 cool articles on the nature and causes of AP - using observational and experimental data, focusing on measurement, elites and ideology, and an important theoretical piece as well.
September 29, 2023 at 4:54 PM
Great opportunity for first post on BlueSky!
Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social .
Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!
Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social .
Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!
Reposted by Carlos Algara
Just had our big U01 kickoff meeting for the next phase of the Understanding America Study! A reminder to everyone in polisky that there's an enormous amount of existing data here and that if you field a survey using the UAS you can easily merge.
https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php
https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php
uasdata.usc.edu
August 18, 2023 at 8:31 PM
Just had our big U01 kickoff meeting for the next phase of the Understanding America Study! A reminder to everyone in polisky that there's an enormous amount of existing data here and that if you field a survey using the UAS you can easily merge.
https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php
https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php