Inflation Watch
LightNews LightNews
banner
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Inflation Watch
@inflationwatch.bsky.social
10 followers 2 following 40 posts
Watching for inflation here, there and everywhere (also see us at https://inflationwatch.wordpress.com/)
Posts Replies Media Videos
Pinned
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Inflation Watch @inflationwatch.bsky.social · Aug 25
Powell Places His First Step On the Stairs Of Hopeful Monetary Policy
inflationwatch.drduru.com/powell-place...

#AdjustedNationalFinancialConditionsIndex #ANFCI #CPI #FederalReserve $GLD #gold #inflation #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #PCE #PPI #economy
Powell Places His First Step On the Stairs Of Hopeful Monetary Policy
Feeling economic and political pressures, Fed Chair Powell finally conceded to taking his first step on the stairs of hopeful monetary policy
inflationwatch.drduru.com
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Powell Balks At the Next Step of Hopeful Monetary Policy
inflationwatch.drduru.com/powell-balks...
#inflation #economy #federalreserve #monetarypolicy #australia #bankofengland $GLD $TLT #tariffs #employment
Powell Balks At the Next Step of Hopeful Monetary Policy
On behalf of the Fed, Chair Powell balked at the idea of cutting rates in December. There are plenty of reasons to expect a cut anyway.
inflationwatch.drduru.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:49 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
October Beige Book Includes Signs of Higher Price Pressures in 2026 inflationwatch.drduru.com/october-beig... $CAT $GLD $TLT #inflation #economy
October Beige Book Includes Signs of Higher Price Pressures in 2026
The Fed's October Beige Book adds warnings of higher price pressures in 2026 to its now familiar inflationary themes.
inflationwatch.drduru.com
October 18, 2025 at 11:00 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Definitely surprising:
Lowest Number of S&P 500 Earnings Calls Citing “Inflation” In Nearly 5 Years
insight.factset.com/lowest-numbe...
#earnings #inflation
Lowest Number of S&P 500 Earnings Calls Citing “Inflation” In Nearly 5 Years
Stay updated on S&P 500 earnings trends with insight from FactSet, featuring analysis of inflation mentions on analyst calls June 15 through September 12.
insight.factset.com
September 16, 2025 at 10:07 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Financing Costs Do Not Impact Calculated Inflation inflationwatch.drduru.com/financing-co... #inflation #economy #monetarypolicy #CPI
Financing Costs Do Not Impact Calculated Inflation
I was startled to hear a CNBC pundit explain that rate cuts reduce inflation because financing costs factor into inflation. Wrong.
inflationwatch.drduru.com
September 12, 2025 at 5:13 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
August Beige Book Points Toward Higher Inflation to Come
inflationwatch.drduru.com/august-beige... $GLD $TLT #inflation #economy #federalreserve
August Beige Book Points Toward Higher Inflation to Come
The Federal Reserve’s August Beige Book sang a familiar tune: pricing pressures remain sticky and in too many cases continue to grow.
inflationwatch.drduru.com
September 8, 2025 at 5:33 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Powell Places His First Step On the Stairs Of Hopeful Monetary Policy
inflationwatch.drduru.com/powell-place...

#AdjustedNationalFinancialConditionsIndex #ANFCI #CPI #FederalReserve $GLD #gold #inflation #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #PCE #PPI #economy
Powell Places His First Step On the Stairs Of Hopeful Monetary Policy
Feeling economic and political pressures, Fed Chair Powell finally conceded to taking his first step on the stairs of hopeful monetary policy
inflationwatch.drduru.com
August 25, 2025 at 7:15 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Powell’s Promises: Containing Tariff-Driven Inflation and Containing Risks to Dual Mandate

inflationwatch.drduru.com/powells-prom...

#inflation #economy #monetarypolicy #federalreserve
Powell’s Promises: Containing Tariff-Driven Inflation and Containing Risks to Dual Mandate
Fed Chair Powell promises to contain tariff-driven inflation while navigating rising risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.
inflationwatch.drduru.com
July 31, 2025 at 5:09 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
July Beige Book Reinforces A Bottoming in CPI inflationwatch.drduru.com/july-beige-b... #inflation $TLT #JeromePowell #economy #bondmarket
July Beige Book Reinforces A Bottoming in CPI
The Federal Reserve’s July Beige Book sang a tune similar to the one from the June Beige Book: higher inflation is just around the corner.
inflationwatch.drduru.com
July 17, 2025 at 3:36 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
"Tom Lee Dismisses Tariff Inflation — But Data, Theory, and Research Say Otherwise" inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/07/05/t...

#inflation #economy $GTIP #tariffs #monetarypolicy #federalreserve #stagflation
Tom Lee Dismisses Tariff Inflation — But Data, Theory, and Research Say Otherwise
Introduction: Tom Lee’s Non-Inflationary Thesis In a recent interview, Tom Lee made a convincing but incomplete argument for team non-inflationary when describing the economic impacts of tari…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
July 6, 2025 at 5:09 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Powell vs. Waller: Divided Fed Faces Tariff-Driven Inflation Uncertainty inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/07/01/p... #federalreserve #tariffs #economy #inflation #monetarypolicy #VIX
Powell vs. Waller: Divided Fed Faces Tariff-Driven Inflation Uncertainty
Monetary intrigue has emerged in the form of an apparent divide inside the Federal Reserve over the nature of tariff-driven inflation and the timing of interest rate cuts. As Powell emphasizes caut…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
July 1, 2025 at 8:41 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
"Jerome Powell: Meaningful Inflation Is Coming" inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/06/19/j... #inflation #stockmarket #forex #usdollarindex $DXY #monetarypolicy #economy
Jerome Powell: Meaningful Inflation Is Coming
The press conference for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was about as boring as it gets. The market did not expect rate cuts, the Fed obliged, and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear the Fed…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
June 19, 2025 at 4:43 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
A Calm Before Fresh Inflation Agitation?
inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/06/12/a... #inflation #forex $DXY #CPI #BeigeBook #economy
A Calm Before Fresh Inflation Agitation?
If the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for May, 2025 is indicative, then the soft CPI (Consumer Price Index) report for May looks like a calm before the next inflation agitation. In the prices s…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
June 12, 2025 at 5:46 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Inflation at Target and GDP Growth Recovery: A Comeback Case for the Australian Dollar #forex $FXA $AUDUSD #monetarypolicy #Australia #RBA #economy #inflation inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/05/26/i...
Inflation at Target and GDP Growth Recovery: A Comeback Case for the Australian Dollar
Over the past year, I’ve grown increasingly interested in the Australian dollar as a contrarian “value” currency trade against the U.S. dollar. I could of course be very wrong given the…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
May 27, 2025 at 5:34 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
"Powell's (Not So) Hidden Plea to End the U.S.'s Tariff War"
inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/05/10/p...

#economy #tariffs #federalreserve $TLT $GLD $DXY #forex #stagflation #monetarypolicy
Powell’s (Not So) Hidden Plea to End the U.S.’s Tariff War
During last week’s press conference on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, I heard a narrative stuck in neutral, neither hawkish or dovish. While Fed Chair Powell carefully avoided s…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
May 11, 2025 at 1:56 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
eyeonhousing.org/2025/04/buil...
"On average, suppliers have increased their prices by 6.3% in response to announced, enacted, or expected tariffs. This means builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $10,900 per home." #inflation #housingwatch #homebuilders
Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season
Growing economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns and elevated building material costs kept builder sentiment in negative territory in April, despite a modest bump in confidence likely due to...
eyeonhousing.org
April 19, 2025 at 7:04 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Despite Exemptions and Delays, Tariffs are Already Affecting Builders eyeonhousing.org/2025/04/desp... #housingwatch #inflation #homebuilders $ITB $XHB
Despite Exemptions and Delays, Tariffs are Already Affecting Builders
Home builders have already started to feel the effects of U.S. tariff policy, according to recent NAHB member surveys. This is true even though the Administration did not announce its list of reciproc...
eyeonhousing.org
April 19, 2025 at 7:00 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
An Early Look At Stagflationary Pressures inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/04/18/a... #economy #inflation #stagflation #tariffs $GTIP
An Early Look At Stagflationary Pressures
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s April 2025 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey provided an early look at what a stagflationary period for the economy could look like with massive…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
April 19, 2025 at 5:09 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Inflation Concerns Rise at the Federal Reserve Amid Tariff Unease inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/04/10/i... #inflation #forex $CADMXN $USDCAD $USDMXN economy #tariffs
Inflation Concerns Rise at the Federal Reserve Amid Tariff Unease
Inflation concerns are apparently on the rise at the Federal Reserve amid tariff unease. Recent comments by Kansas City Fed Governor Jeffrey Schmid suggest that a more cautious – and I believ…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
April 11, 2025 at 3:40 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
💸 Why TIPS Failed—and What Might Work Now 📉📈

🔎 Learn what went wrong—and what could go right—in this changing rate environment.

👉 inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/03/30/w... #Bonds #Inflation #TIPS #Investing $GTIP $RBIL #Fed #Stagflation
Why TIPS Failed Spectacularly In 2022… And What Might Work Now
Why TIPS Failed TIPS are Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. The name implies that purchasing these bonds provides a way to protect your money from inflation. Per the Treasury website: “…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
March 31, 2025 at 12:07 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Jerome Powell’s Fed Deftly Maneuvers Through a Stagflationary Minefield inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/03/19/j...
#inflation #monetarypolicy #economy $SPY #SP500 #JeromePowell #tariffs #economicindicators
Jerome Powell’s Fed Deftly Maneuvers Through a Stagflationary Minefield
Federal Chair Jerome Powell was up to the challenge of facing down the maximum pressure placed on this March meeting on monetary policy. The specter of stagflation loomed over this FOMC meeting, so…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
March 20, 2025 at 5:28 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Investor expectations are rising for rate cuts. Consumer’s inflation fears are rising while sentiment and employment expectations are sinking...

inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/03/14/m...

$GLD #VIX #economy #inflation #expectations #monetarypolicy #federalreserve #cmefedwatch #stockmarket
Maximum Pressure for the Federal Reserve
Investor expectations for rate cuts are rising. Consumer’s inflation fears are rising while sentiment and employment expectations are sinking. Going forward, the Fed will face maximum pressur…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
March 14, 2025 at 4:49 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
The Sleight of Hand Behind the ‘One-Time Adjustment’ and ‘Transitory’ Tariff Inflation Narrative inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/03/08/t...
#Tariffs #Inflation #OneTimeAdjustment #TransitoryInflation #TradePolicy #EconomicNarrative #MarketAnalysis #ConsumerPrices #forex $USDCAD $USDMXN
The Sleight of Hand Behind the ‘One-Time Adjustment’ and ‘Transitory’ Tariff Inflation Narrative
“Tariffs are a one-time price adjustment.” This quote is the bold yet defensible claim U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made during a CNBC interview this past week. Bessent is lean…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
March 9, 2025 at 1:08 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
Inflation Expectations Surge As the U.S. Dollar Tops Out inflationwatch.wordpress.com/2025/02/21/i... #forex $USDCAD #inflation $DXY #economy #tariffs
Inflation Expectations Surge As the U.S. Dollar Tops Out
Three weeks ago I talked about a potential Fed calm before a market storm. Of course the S&P 500 (SPY) proceeded to drift higher from there and even notched one more all-time high just last Wed…
inflationwatch.wordpress.com
February 22, 2025 at 4:39 AM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
😅😅🥹
February 4, 2025 at 8:50 PM
inflationwatch.bsky.social
State Farm urges California Insurance Commissioner to approve emergency interim rate hikes due to financial strain from recent wildfires. The company warns of further rating downgrades, mortgage issues, and policy cancellations if rates aren’t adjusted quickly #InsuranceCrisis #Wildfires #inflation
newsroom.statefarm.com
February 4, 2025 at 8:47 PM