Hielke Van Doorslaer
@hielkevd.bsky.social
Doctor in International Political Economy, Ghent University
Scientific researcher @denktankminerva.be
Interests: all things macroeconomy (heterodox & critical vantage point)
Scientific researcher @denktankminerva.be
Interests: all things macroeconomy (heterodox & critical vantage point)
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."
November 4, 2025 at 11:53 AM
IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
Impossible to repost or discuss this chart too many times. A tale of two crises & two policy responses. One of them we still inexplicably talk about as a success, & one we still inexplicably talk about as a failure. 1.5 years of modestly high inflation did a number on us.
November 7, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Impossible to repost or discuss this chart too many times. A tale of two crises & two policy responses. One of them we still inexplicably talk about as a success, & one we still inexplicably talk about as a failure. 1.5 years of modestly high inflation did a number on us.
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
Migratie kost miljarden?
📉 Niet volgens NBB, OESO en IMF.
📈 Migratie zorgt voor groei, jobs en een sterkere welvaartsstaat.
Analyse van @hielkevd.bsky.social (Denktank Minerva) & @flordidden.bsky.social (@11.be) op @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social en hier 👇
🔗 www.denktankminerva.be/opinie/de-op...
📉 Niet volgens NBB, OESO en IMF.
📈 Migratie zorgt voor groei, jobs en een sterkere welvaartsstaat.
Analyse van @hielkevd.bsky.social (Denktank Minerva) & @flordidden.bsky.social (@11.be) op @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social en hier 👇
🔗 www.denktankminerva.be/opinie/de-op...
De opgeblazen migratiefactuur van Mark Elchardus<br/> — Denktank Minerva
Het aantrekken van voldoende migranten is noodzakelijker én lonender dan Mark Elchardus en andere migratiesceptici ons willen doen geloven.
www.denktankminerva.be
November 17, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Migratie kost miljarden?
📉 Niet volgens NBB, OESO en IMF.
📈 Migratie zorgt voor groei, jobs en een sterkere welvaartsstaat.
Analyse van @hielkevd.bsky.social (Denktank Minerva) & @flordidden.bsky.social (@11.be) op @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social en hier 👇
🔗 www.denktankminerva.be/opinie/de-op...
📉 Niet volgens NBB, OESO en IMF.
📈 Migratie zorgt voor groei, jobs en een sterkere welvaartsstaat.
Analyse van @hielkevd.bsky.social (Denktank Minerva) & @flordidden.bsky.social (@11.be) op @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social en hier 👇
🔗 www.denktankminerva.be/opinie/de-op...
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
How dare you accuse me of saying “threshold”.
October 27, 2025 at 7:46 PM
How dare you accuse me of saying “threshold”.
Mockery (and insults) have been part of anyone going against the established consensus (including me), but now even the IMF agrees...
😎
www.ugent.be/ps/politieke...
😎
www.ugent.be/ps/politieke...
October 27, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Mockery (and insults) have been part of anyone going against the established consensus (including me), but now even the IMF agrees...
😎
www.ugent.be/ps/politieke...
😎
www.ugent.be/ps/politieke...
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
Crystal-clear policy implications:
October 27, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Crystal-clear policy implications:
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
💥🤯Shocking findings from this new IMF working paper: inflation outcomes were similar between inflation targeting and non-inflation targeting countries, despite more aggressive rate hikes by the former.
🔗 Read more: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
#MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CentralBanks
🔗 Read more: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
#MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CentralBanks
October 27, 2025 at 3:39 PM
💥🤯Shocking findings from this new IMF working paper: inflation outcomes were similar between inflation targeting and non-inflation targeting countries, despite more aggressive rate hikes by the former.
🔗 Read more: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
#MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CentralBanks
🔗 Read more: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
#MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CentralBanks
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
Now out in Party Politics 🎉
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
October 24, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Now out in Party Politics 🎉
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
"To help unlock the investments needed to achieve energy sovereignty, and ensure we stop handing over billions of dollars a year to the Kremlin, we urge you to push for spending on renewable and low-carbon energy to be counted as part of the Nato 1.5% target."
👏
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
👏
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Renewable energy investment should come from defence budgets, say retired military leaders
Former European officers say spending on low-carbon power would make nations more resilient to threats from potential aggressors
www.theguardian.com
October 24, 2025 at 8:16 AM
"To help unlock the investments needed to achieve energy sovereignty, and ensure we stop handing over billions of dollars a year to the Kremlin, we urge you to push for spending on renewable and low-carbon energy to be counted as part of the Nato 1.5% target."
👏
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
👏
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
📢 New paper out in New Political Economy: "Depoliticising monetary tightening: how the European Central Bank managed the 2021–2023 inflation shock" Thread here below 👇
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Depoliticising monetary tightening: how the European Central Bank managed the 2021–2023 inflation shock
The 2021-2023 inflation shock fuelled a heated public debate about the role of the monetary tightening strategy as the key strategy to the return to price stability. Central banks' rate hikes were ...
www.tandfonline.com
October 20, 2025 at 11:52 AM
📢 New paper out in New Political Economy: "Depoliticising monetary tightening: how the European Central Bank managed the 2021–2023 inflation shock" Thread here below 👇
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
On the macroeconomic dividend of public investment:
🙏 "Each euro of public investment generates approximately €1.30 in inflation-adjusted output within three years—a cumulative multiplier of 1.3."
👉 Great and necessary piece by @heimbergecon.bsky.social
www.socialeurope.eu/europe-needs...
🙏 "Each euro of public investment generates approximately €1.30 in inflation-adjusted output within three years—a cumulative multiplier of 1.3."
👉 Great and necessary piece by @heimbergecon.bsky.social
www.socialeurope.eu/europe-needs...
Europe Needs A Public Investment Revolution To Secure Its Economic Future
Boosting infrastructure spending would stimulate growth and employment without threatening debt sustainability.
www.socialeurope.eu
October 23, 2025 at 12:14 PM
On the macroeconomic dividend of public investment:
🙏 "Each euro of public investment generates approximately €1.30 in inflation-adjusted output within three years—a cumulative multiplier of 1.3."
👉 Great and necessary piece by @heimbergecon.bsky.social
www.socialeurope.eu/europe-needs...
🙏 "Each euro of public investment generates approximately €1.30 in inflation-adjusted output within three years—a cumulative multiplier of 1.3."
👉 Great and necessary piece by @heimbergecon.bsky.social
www.socialeurope.eu/europe-needs...
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
We show that interest rate hikes by central banks are less powerful in reducing inflation than conventional wisdom suggests. Correcting for publication bias, the output cost of reducing inflation increases. Based on our meta-study of 145,000 point estimates and confidence bounds.
October 23, 2025 at 7:36 AM
We show that interest rate hikes by central banks are less powerful in reducing inflation than conventional wisdom suggests. Correcting for publication bias, the output cost of reducing inflation increases. Based on our meta-study of 145,000 point estimates and confidence bounds.
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
+1,5 miljoen werkenden tussen 1996 & 2023
Maar werkgeversbijdragen aan sociale zekerheid: 50% → <40%
Gevolg: overheid vult het gat met hogere belastingen of schulden.
Geen economische wet, maar politieke keuze.
Tijd voor eerlijk debat: wie draagt bij, wie profiteert?
Maar werkgeversbijdragen aan sociale zekerheid: 50% → <40%
Gevolg: overheid vult het gat met hogere belastingen of schulden.
Geen economische wet, maar politieke keuze.
Tijd voor eerlijk debat: wie draagt bij, wie profiteert?
October 23, 2025 at 10:22 AM
+1,5 miljoen werkenden tussen 1996 & 2023
Maar werkgeversbijdragen aan sociale zekerheid: 50% → <40%
Gevolg: overheid vult het gat met hogere belastingen of schulden.
Geen economische wet, maar politieke keuze.
Tijd voor eerlijk debat: wie draagt bij, wie profiteert?
Maar werkgeversbijdragen aan sociale zekerheid: 50% → <40%
Gevolg: overheid vult het gat met hogere belastingen of schulden.
Geen economische wet, maar politieke keuze.
Tijd voor eerlijk debat: wie draagt bij, wie profiteert?
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
October 23, 2025 at 8:04 AM
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
15 (!) keer méér managementvennootschappen sinds 2010. Explosieve groei.
October 17, 2025 at 7:18 AM
15 (!) keer méér managementvennootschappen sinds 2010. Explosieve groei.
"Loonmatiging heeft helaas een geringere productiviteitsgroei tot gevolg. Zo schatten Vergeer en Kleinknecht dat 1 procentpunt minder reële loonstijging tussen 0,32 en 0,46 procent minder groei van de toegevoegde waarde per arbeidsuur tot gevolg heeft."
esb.nu/verhoog-nede...
esb.nu/verhoog-nede...
Verhoog Nederlandse productiviteitsgroei via arbeidsmarkt en sectorstructuur - ESB
DNB constateert dat de recente Nederlandse productiviteitsgroei redelijk aansluit op het Europees gemiddelde. Dit klinkt geruststellend, ware het niet dat het Europees gemiddelde intussen wel erg laag...
esb.nu
October 17, 2025 at 7:04 AM
"Loonmatiging heeft helaas een geringere productiviteitsgroei tot gevolg. Zo schatten Vergeer en Kleinknecht dat 1 procentpunt minder reële loonstijging tussen 0,32 en 0,46 procent minder groei van de toegevoegde waarde per arbeidsuur tot gevolg heeft."
esb.nu/verhoog-nede...
esb.nu/verhoog-nede...
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
De teruglopende ontvangsten van staat en sociale zekerheid, een bewuste politieke keuze, dragen veruit het grootste deel van de verantwoordelijkheid voor de oplopende begrotingstekorten. 👇
October 16, 2025 at 8:07 AM
De teruglopende ontvangsten van staat en sociale zekerheid, een bewuste politieke keuze, dragen veruit het grootste deel van de verantwoordelijkheid voor de oplopende begrotingstekorten. 👇
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
Monitoringcomité juli 2024 vs. september 2025:
→ Bijna NEGEN MILJARD (!) MINDER INKOMSTEN voor federale overheid & sociale zekerheid door beleid-De Wever.
Welk begrotingstekort? 🤷
→ Bijna NEGEN MILJARD (!) MINDER INKOMSTEN voor federale overheid & sociale zekerheid door beleid-De Wever.
Welk begrotingstekort? 🤷
October 10, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Monitoringcomité juli 2024 vs. september 2025:
→ Bijna NEGEN MILJARD (!) MINDER INKOMSTEN voor federale overheid & sociale zekerheid door beleid-De Wever.
Welk begrotingstekort? 🤷
→ Bijna NEGEN MILJARD (!) MINDER INKOMSTEN voor federale overheid & sociale zekerheid door beleid-De Wever.
Welk begrotingstekort? 🤷
🚨 Hugely important message to EU and national leaders:
💥 Forget deregulation drive and ill-guided focus on fiscal consolidation. Ignite public investment boom and focus on domestic growth drivers.
🙏 History will thank you later.
💥 Forget deregulation drive and ill-guided focus on fiscal consolidation. Ignite public investment boom and focus on domestic growth drivers.
🙏 History will thank you later.
With the US now seemingly unwilling to buy European export goods as it did in the past, and with China’s import growth slowing, Europe must refocus on domestic growth drivers. Public investment may play a crucial role in this.
Link to paper: wiiw.ac.at/achieving-ge...
Link to paper: wiiw.ac.at/achieving-ge...
October 9, 2025 at 7:01 AM
🚨 Hugely important message to EU and national leaders:
💥 Forget deregulation drive and ill-guided focus on fiscal consolidation. Ignite public investment boom and focus on domestic growth drivers.
🙏 History will thank you later.
💥 Forget deregulation drive and ill-guided focus on fiscal consolidation. Ignite public investment boom and focus on domestic growth drivers.
🙏 History will thank you later.
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
In a new paper, we provide fresh evidence on the macroeconomic effects of public investment in 27 EU member states. We find that public investment has favorable effects on output and unemployment; doesn't crowd out private investment; and doesn't jeopardise debt sustainability.
October 8, 2025 at 8:00 AM
In a new paper, we provide fresh evidence on the macroeconomic effects of public investment in 27 EU member states. We find that public investment has favorable effects on output and unemployment; doesn't crowd out private investment; and doesn't jeopardise debt sustainability.
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
“De begrotingsplannen van De Wever? Magisch wensdenken.”
@hielkevd.bsky.social van @denktankminerva.be in @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social over 50 miljard staatsteun voor bedrijven, besparingen voor sociale zekerheid, en begrotingsbeleid gestoeld op een Excel-fout.
www.sampol.be/2025/10/begr...
@hielkevd.bsky.social van @denktankminerva.be in @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social over 50 miljard staatsteun voor bedrijven, besparingen voor sociale zekerheid, en begrotingsbeleid gestoeld op een Excel-fout.
www.sampol.be/2025/10/begr...
'Begrotingsplannen De Wever zijn magisch wensdenken'
Ondernemers en bedrijven in de watten leggen met lagere lasten om groei te krijgen? Nog nooit heeft dit beleid gezorgd voor de beoogde inkomsten.
www.sampol.be
October 3, 2025 at 7:46 AM
“De begrotingsplannen van De Wever? Magisch wensdenken.”
@hielkevd.bsky.social van @denktankminerva.be in @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social over 50 miljard staatsteun voor bedrijven, besparingen voor sociale zekerheid, en begrotingsbeleid gestoeld op een Excel-fout.
www.sampol.be/2025/10/begr...
@hielkevd.bsky.social van @denktankminerva.be in @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social over 50 miljard staatsteun voor bedrijven, besparingen voor sociale zekerheid, en begrotingsbeleid gestoeld op een Excel-fout.
www.sampol.be/2025/10/begr...
Reposted by Hielke Van Doorslaer
🌱🪙 In their introduction to the Special Issue "Puzzling, powering, profiting: The politics of sustainable finance in Europe", editors
@danmertens.bsky.social and @nataschavanderzwan.bsky.social define EU sustainable finance & outline how best to analyse it 💡
🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
@danmertens.bsky.social and @nataschavanderzwan.bsky.social define EU sustainable finance & outline how best to analyse it 💡
🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
September 17, 2025 at 11:39 AM
🌱🪙 In their introduction to the Special Issue "Puzzling, powering, profiting: The politics of sustainable finance in Europe", editors
@danmertens.bsky.social and @nataschavanderzwan.bsky.social define EU sustainable finance & outline how best to analyse it 💡
🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
@danmertens.bsky.social and @nataschavanderzwan.bsky.social define EU sustainable finance & outline how best to analyse it 💡
🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....