Gustav Alexandrie
@gustavalexandrie.bsky.social
Econ PhD student at UZH. Interested in welfare econ, including both theory (e.g., social choice) and applications to important issues such as growth, inequality, and catastrophic risks.
My website: http://sites.google.com/view/gustav-alexandrie/
My website: http://sites.google.com/view/gustav-alexandrie/
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
The idea that 'we need more vaccine data' rings extremely hollow coming from people who weren't convinced by safety and efficacy data from multiple phase 3 randomized trials with tens of thousands of people - some of the largest clinical trials in history - and roll-outs to billions of people.
August 12, 2025 at 10:02 PM
The idea that 'we need more vaccine data' rings extremely hollow coming from people who weren't convinced by safety and efficacy data from multiple phase 3 randomized trials with tens of thousands of people - some of the largest clinical trials in history - and roll-outs to billions of people.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
I'm a "centrist" about AI sentience. I take two risks seriously: the risk of creating a new kind of sentient being, and the risk of millions of users misattributing sentience to chatbots on the basis of mimicry and role-playing. LSE invited me to explain in 5 minutes: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg8v...
What if AI is already conscious? Sentience explained | LSE Research
YouTube video by LSE
www.youtube.com
July 8, 2025 at 12:06 PM
I'm a "centrist" about AI sentience. I take two risks seriously: the risk of creating a new kind of sentient being, and the risk of millions of users misattributing sentience to chatbots on the basis of mimicry and role-playing. LSE invited me to explain in 5 minutes: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg8v...
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
A gripping beginning to "After the Spike" by Dean Spears & @mikegeruso.bsky.social: 146 million children were born in 2012, more than in any year before, since, or likely ever in the future.
Highly recommended, my Goodreads review: www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
Highly recommended, my Goodreads review: www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
July 9, 2025 at 1:13 AM
A gripping beginning to "After the Spike" by Dean Spears & @mikegeruso.bsky.social: 146 million children were born in 2012, more than in any year before, since, or likely ever in the future.
Highly recommended, my Goodreads review: www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
Highly recommended, my Goodreads review: www.goodreads.com/review/show/...
Any journal that does not want to be flooded with AI-generated manuscripts will probably have to adopt something like this policy eventually.
Academic journals should charge hefty submission fees, and use the money to pay editors and referees for their service.
www.goodthoughts.blog/p/a-quick-fi...
www.goodthoughts.blog/p/a-quick-fi...
A Quick Fix for the Referee Crisis
Pay per submission
www.goodthoughts.blog
May 12, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Any journal that does not want to be flooded with AI-generated manuscripts will probably have to adopt something like this policy eventually.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Super interesting
We are pleased to announce an experiment intended to stimulate academic discussion and exchange, centered on papers published in Econometrica 1/5
March 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Super interesting
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
March 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Interesting analysis of the strategic forces that can prevent the Trump regime from becoming fully authoritarian: https://www.readthedetox.com/p/trump-can-be-stopped
Drawing on the experiences of other countries that succeeded or failed at preventing the entrenchment of authoritarians.
Drawing on the experiences of other countries that succeeded or failed at preventing the entrenchment of authoritarians.
Trump Can Be Stopped
Other countries managed to fend off autocracy. By borrowing from their playbook, America can too.
www.readthedetox.com
February 16, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Interesting analysis of the strategic forces that can prevent the Trump regime from becoming fully authoritarian: https://www.readthedetox.com/p/trump-can-be-stopped
Drawing on the experiences of other countries that succeeded or failed at preventing the entrenchment of authoritarians.
Drawing on the experiences of other countries that succeeded or failed at preventing the entrenchment of authoritarians.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Hold off on USAID obituaries and suggesting staff have gone.
Most actions so far are under legal challenge, only Congress can get rid of USAID (and its funding), the staff are on administrative leave.
What has happened is terrible, but it is time to push back, not give in.
Most actions so far are under legal challenge, only Congress can get rid of USAID (and its funding), the staff are on administrative leave.
What has happened is terrible, but it is time to push back, not give in.
February 7, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Hold off on USAID obituaries and suggesting staff have gone.
Most actions so far are under legal challenge, only Congress can get rid of USAID (and its funding), the staff are on administrative leave.
What has happened is terrible, but it is time to push back, not give in.
Most actions so far are under legal challenge, only Congress can get rid of USAID (and its funding), the staff are on administrative leave.
What has happened is terrible, but it is time to push back, not give in.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Elon says 90% of US aid never reaches communities.
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
February 4, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Elon says 90% of US aid never reaches communities.
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Just passed the one year anniversary of @michaelwiebe.bsky.social posting an apparently devastating (non-)replication of Moretti's AER paper finding big agglomeration impacts on innovation; still no public reply. Econ journals really need more retractions/comments. michaelwiebe.com/blog/2024/0...
January 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Just passed the one year anniversary of @michaelwiebe.bsky.social posting an apparently devastating (non-)replication of Moretti's AER paper finding big agglomeration impacts on innovation; still no public reply. Econ journals really need more retractions/comments. michaelwiebe.com/blog/2024/0...
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
New working paper!
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation, the new working paper by Eric Olav Chen, @alexghersen.bsky.social and Sami Petersen is now available to read here: globalprioritiesinstitute.org/imperfect-re...
Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation - Eric Olav Chen, Alexis Ghersengorin and Sami Petersen
A principal wants to deploy an artificial intelligence (AI) system to perform some task. But the AI may be misaligned and aim to pursue a conflicting objective. The principal cannot restrict its optio...
globalprioritiesinstitute.org
December 12, 2024 at 1:57 PM
New working paper!
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall.
A short thread on the key highlights.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Given that growth tends to be exponential it is not surprising that incomes in poor countries have not increased as fast as incomes in rich countries in *absolute* terms (figure to the left).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
November 25, 2024 at 9:43 PM
Given that growth tends to be exponential it is not surprising that incomes in poor countries have not increased as fast as incomes in rich countries in *absolute* terms (figure to the left).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
The same applies to ethics and epistemology.
For example, formal-methods training in philosophy is focused on logic, but in my view most of the exciting work in both ethics and epistemology relies much more on probability theory and decision theory (which are not part of the standard curriculum).
For example, formal-methods training in philosophy is focused on logic, but in my view most of the exciting work in both ethics and epistemology relies much more on probability theory and decision theory (which are not part of the standard curriculum).
"Many of the norms and institutions we have in place don’t really make sense given the way the field is right now. They are just holdovers from the way the field used to be." Philosophy of mind is different now. So are other subfields of philosophy...
Philosophy of Mind is Very Different Now (guest post) - Daily Nous
A field of study may change over time, but since, whatever a field of study is, it’s made up of various kinds of things—researchers, norms, institutions, publications, questions, assumptions—its compo...
dailynous.com
December 3, 2024 at 5:54 PM
The same applies to ethics and epistemology.
For example, formal-methods training in philosophy is focused on logic, but in my view most of the exciting work in both ethics and epistemology relies much more on probability theory and decision theory (which are not part of the standard curriculum).
For example, formal-methods training in philosophy is focused on logic, but in my view most of the exciting work in both ethics and epistemology relies much more on probability theory and decision theory (which are not part of the standard curriculum).
Utilitarianism is very underrated, in part because many textbooks neglect the strongest arguments in its favour (especially Harsanyi's two arguments).
This book does much better in that regard! (Though I would have wished for even more on the aggregation theorem.)
This book does much better in that regard! (Though I would have wished for even more on the aggregation theorem.)
I have a new book out! "An Introduction to Utilitarianism", co-authored with Richard Chappell and Darius Meissner.
It all started in 2016: I was giving the introduction to ethics lectures at Oxford and I was frustrated by how utilitarianism was presented to students in introductory materials...
It all started in 2016: I was giving the introduction to ethics lectures at Oxford and I was frustrated by how utilitarianism was presented to students in introductory materials...
www.amazon.co.uk
December 2, 2024 at 7:08 PM
Utilitarianism is very underrated, in part because many textbooks neglect the strongest arguments in its favour (especially Harsanyi's two arguments).
This book does much better in that regard! (Though I would have wished for even more on the aggregation theorem.)
This book does much better in that regard! (Though I would have wished for even more on the aggregation theorem.)
Very disappointing findings regarding the relationship between impact evaluations and policy spending.
We still have a relatively poor understanding of the relationship between evidence and policy. Program evaluation in particular is often motivated by a desire to make policy better. But how effective is program evaluation itself?Michelle Rao's JMP tackles this question. www.michellerao.com/research
November 27, 2024 at 9:58 AM
Very disappointing findings regarding the relationship between impact evaluations and policy spending.
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
"Sure, the last 1000 grad students failed to solve the problem of induction, but that's no reason to think I can't do it."
November 26, 2024 at 9:16 PM
"Sure, the last 1000 grad students failed to solve the problem of induction, but that's no reason to think I can't do it."
I'm calling it early: the funniest philosophy paper of the year is "The Foresight Response to Money Pumps Refuted in Words of One Syllable".
November 26, 2024 at 5:37 PM
I'm calling it early: the funniest philosophy paper of the year is "The Foresight Response to Money Pumps Refuted in Words of One Syllable".
Reposted by Gustav Alexandrie
Open Phil is hiring a Program Officer to lead new program on economic growth in LMICs
Deadline 1 Dec - keen to get range of applicants with experience working on growth.
Can be based anywhere!
JD: bit.ly/lmicgrowth
Rationale: bit.ly/lmicgrowth-research
Referrals: bit.ly/openphil-referrals
1/n
Deadline 1 Dec - keen to get range of applicants with experience working on growth.
Can be based anywhere!
JD: bit.ly/lmicgrowth
Rationale: bit.ly/lmicgrowth-research
Referrals: bit.ly/openphil-referrals
1/n
Program Officer, Economic Growth in LMICs
Open Philanthropy is looking to hire a Program Officer to lead our new program: economic growth in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
bit.ly
November 20, 2024 at 11:27 AM
Open Phil is hiring a Program Officer to lead new program on economic growth in LMICs
Deadline 1 Dec - keen to get range of applicants with experience working on growth.
Can be based anywhere!
JD: bit.ly/lmicgrowth
Rationale: bit.ly/lmicgrowth-research
Referrals: bit.ly/openphil-referrals
1/n
Deadline 1 Dec - keen to get range of applicants with experience working on growth.
Can be based anywhere!
JD: bit.ly/lmicgrowth
Rationale: bit.ly/lmicgrowth-research
Referrals: bit.ly/openphil-referrals
1/n
Given that growth tends to be exponential it is not surprising that incomes in poor countries have not increased as fast as incomes in rich countries in *absolute* terms (figure to the left).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
November 25, 2024 at 9:43 PM
Given that growth tends to be exponential it is not surprising that incomes in poor countries have not increased as fast as incomes in rich countries in *absolute* terms (figure to the left).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
Luckily, incomes in poor countries have increased faster in *relative* terms (figure to the right).
One of the most striking abstracts I've read:
"the increase in traffic density from a typical additional driver increases total statewide insurance costs of other drivers by $1,725–$3,239 per year [in California]"
From old paper, but huge if correct: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
"the increase in traffic density from a typical additional driver increases total statewide insurance costs of other drivers by $1,725–$3,239 per year [in California]"
From old paper, but huge if correct: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
November 25, 2024 at 6:10 PM
One of the most striking abstracts I've read:
"the increase in traffic density from a typical additional driver increases total statewide insurance costs of other drivers by $1,725–$3,239 per year [in California]"
From old paper, but huge if correct: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
"the increase in traffic density from a typical additional driver increases total statewide insurance costs of other drivers by $1,725–$3,239 per year [in California]"
From old paper, but huge if correct: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....