@gunnermatt91.bsky.social
Lifelong Gooner 🔴⚪ | Living for the highs, surviving the lows | North London Forever ❤️ | 🌦️ Weather analysis, model watching & charts 📊
GFS Ensembles & ECMWF 12Z ❄️
Mid-Feb still looks interesting. GFS ensembles keep a cooling signal, with several members below average at 850 hPa.
ECMWF 12Z also hints at a colder European pattern with reduced Atlantic influence.
Early days, but the cold signal hasn’t gone away 👀❄️
Mid-Feb still looks interesting. GFS ensembles keep a cooling signal, with several members below average at 850 hPa.
ECMWF 12Z also hints at a colder European pattern with reduced Atlantic influence.
Early days, but the cold signal hasn’t gone away 👀❄️
February 5, 2026 at 6:52 PM
GFS Ensembles & ECMWF 12Z ❄️
Mid-Feb still looks interesting. GFS ensembles keep a cooling signal, with several members below average at 850 hPa.
ECMWF 12Z also hints at a colder European pattern with reduced Atlantic influence.
Early days, but the cold signal hasn’t gone away 👀❄️
Mid-Feb still looks interesting. GFS ensembles keep a cooling signal, with several members below average at 850 hPa.
ECMWF 12Z also hints at a colder European pattern with reduced Atlantic influence.
Early days, but the cold signal hasn’t gone away 👀❄️
Models yet again teasing us with the potential of colder conditions filtering in from around the 13th onwards? Lots of uncertainty though because a milder outcome is still a possibility
February 4, 2026 at 11:28 AM
Models yet again teasing us with the potential of colder conditions filtering in from around the 13th onwards? Lots of uncertainty though because a milder outcome is still a possibility
GFS 18z ensembles!
Plenty of scatter showing still from the 11th onwards now no one can call any weather pattern at the moment for that timeframe. The amount of scatter showing is ridiculously silly, however I am noticing that more GEFS ensemble members are going colder then they are milder 🤔🤔
Plenty of scatter showing still from the 11th onwards now no one can call any weather pattern at the moment for that timeframe. The amount of scatter showing is ridiculously silly, however I am noticing that more GEFS ensemble members are going colder then they are milder 🤔🤔
February 4, 2026 at 12:05 AM
GFS 18z ensembles!
Plenty of scatter showing still from the 11th onwards now no one can call any weather pattern at the moment for that timeframe. The amount of scatter showing is ridiculously silly, however I am noticing that more GEFS ensemble members are going colder then they are milder 🤔🤔
Plenty of scatter showing still from the 11th onwards now no one can call any weather pattern at the moment for that timeframe. The amount of scatter showing is ridiculously silly, however I am noticing that more GEFS ensemble members are going colder then they are milder 🤔🤔
Cold here today
February 3, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Cold here today
GFS 06z!!
The latest model run is again teasing us with colder conditions. Do I believe it will happen? Certainly not we've seen the colder weather being pushed back and now we're looking at mid February. I have no confidence whatsoever
The latest model run is again teasing us with colder conditions. Do I believe it will happen? Certainly not we've seen the colder weather being pushed back and now we're looking at mid February. I have no confidence whatsoever
February 3, 2026 at 1:18 PM
GFS 06z!!
The latest model run is again teasing us with colder conditions. Do I believe it will happen? Certainly not we've seen the colder weather being pushed back and now we're looking at mid February. I have no confidence whatsoever
The latest model run is again teasing us with colder conditions. Do I believe it will happen? Certainly not we've seen the colder weather being pushed back and now we're looking at mid February. I have no confidence whatsoever
Really hope I'm wrong here but the outputs aren't looking as good as they were a few days ago? Seems to me that they are watering down the deep cold potential which isn't a good sign......
February 2, 2026 at 11:36 AM
Really hope I'm wrong here but the outputs aren't looking as good as they were a few days ago? Seems to me that they are watering down the deep cold potential which isn't a good sign......
Last month state - January
High 11.7C
Min low -8.2C
Precipitation 115.82mm 🌧️
High 11.7C
Min low -8.2C
Precipitation 115.82mm 🌧️
February 1, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Last month state - January
High 11.7C
Min low -8.2C
Precipitation 115.82mm 🌧️
High 11.7C
Min low -8.2C
Precipitation 115.82mm 🌧️
ECMWF 00z turns seriously cold 🥶❄️
-12°C uppers over the UK = proper snow-friendly air 🌨️
SSW risk + MJO heading 6–8 = Atlantic domination looking unlikely.
Not a forecast, but cold looks favoured 👀
-12°C uppers over the UK = proper snow-friendly air 🌨️
SSW risk + MJO heading 6–8 = Atlantic domination looking unlikely.
Not a forecast, but cold looks favoured 👀
January 31, 2026 at 9:31 AM
ECMWF 00z turns seriously cold 🥶❄️
-12°C uppers over the UK = proper snow-friendly air 🌨️
SSW risk + MJO heading 6–8 = Atlantic domination looking unlikely.
Not a forecast, but cold looks favoured 👀
-12°C uppers over the UK = proper snow-friendly air 🌨️
SSW risk + MJO heading 6–8 = Atlantic domination looking unlikely.
Not a forecast, but cold looks favoured 👀
ECM 00z run is bitterly cold this morning with -12hpa upper temps showing across the uk. Now this wouldn't be knife edge stuff when it comes to precipitation as it will be snow you'll be seeing falling from the sky
January 31, 2026 at 9:19 AM
ECM 00z run is bitterly cold this morning with -12hpa upper temps showing across the uk. Now this wouldn't be knife edge stuff when it comes to precipitation as it will be snow you'll be seeing falling from the sky
@ogriff79.bsky.social I am liking the trend on the latest ECMWF 12z ensembles though seems to be trending colder from around the 9th onwards which is good to see but again a good few days out to be confident on this outcome
January 30, 2026 at 9:51 PM
@ogriff79.bsky.social I am liking the trend on the latest ECMWF 12z ensembles though seems to be trending colder from around the 9th onwards which is good to see but again a good few days out to be confident on this outcome
We can't fault the consistency within the output. GFS 12z sticks with the idea of colder weather for the 2nd week into February. Cold easterly winds working there way in and yes wintry potential.
January 30, 2026 at 4:59 PM
We can't fault the consistency within the output. GFS 12z sticks with the idea of colder weather for the 2nd week into February. Cold easterly winds working there way in and yes wintry potential.
Morning everyone ☀️❄️
Writing off cold in the second half of February is a bit premature 👀
February is still winter, and cold spells can happen right through into March 🧊
I’m not saying the models show it yet but northern blocking is appearing again on ECMWF and GFS 📊⬆️
That keeps the door open 👀
Writing off cold in the second half of February is a bit premature 👀
February is still winter, and cold spells can happen right through into March 🧊
I’m not saying the models show it yet but northern blocking is appearing again on ECMWF and GFS 📊⬆️
That keeps the door open 👀
January 30, 2026 at 8:11 AM
Morning everyone ☀️❄️
Writing off cold in the second half of February is a bit premature 👀
February is still winter, and cold spells can happen right through into March 🧊
I’m not saying the models show it yet but northern blocking is appearing again on ECMWF and GFS 📊⬆️
That keeps the door open 👀
Writing off cold in the second half of February is a bit premature 👀
February is still winter, and cold spells can happen right through into March 🧊
I’m not saying the models show it yet but northern blocking is appearing again on ECMWF and GFS 📊⬆️
That keeps the door open 👀
GFS 12z 198 hours again showing real interest especially further north anyway with cold easterly winds in but not everywhere at this stage. Let's see where the rest of this goes
January 29, 2026 at 4:26 PM
GFS 12z 198 hours again showing real interest especially further north anyway with cold easterly winds in but not everywhere at this stage. Let's see where the rest of this goes
Some people are mad just because spring is around the corner they think warmer days are coming. Not the case March can often bring very cold conditions with a late spring arriving. Just saying here not hints lol...
January 29, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Some people are mad just because spring is around the corner they think warmer days are coming. Not the case March can often bring very cold conditions with a late spring arriving. Just saying here not hints lol...
Nothing exciting for cold lovers just yet which is disappointing, however something could be brewing for the 2nd week of February with colder conditions lurking. Cold easterly winds
January 29, 2026 at 10:01 AM
Nothing exciting for cold lovers just yet which is disappointing, however something could be brewing for the 2nd week of February with colder conditions lurking. Cold easterly winds
12z data rolling out now. Let's see what this run brings then and will see more blocking into the 2nd week of February
January 28, 2026 at 3:54 PM
12z data rolling out now. Let's see what this run brings then and will see more blocking into the 2nd week of February
Reposted
Here’s your moment of zen
January 28, 2026 at 11:19 AM
Here’s your moment of zen
Reposted
Further misery for #Ukraine a frigid Siberian blast will consume region this weekend into early next week.
Temps will fall more than 15C below average sometimes 20C below. Life threatening cold. The situation becoming critical when many apartment buildings remain without heating.
Temps will fall more than 15C below average sometimes 20C below. Life threatening cold. The situation becoming critical when many apartment buildings remain without heating.
January 28, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Further misery for #Ukraine a frigid Siberian blast will consume region this weekend into early next week.
Temps will fall more than 15C below average sometimes 20C below. Life threatening cold. The situation becoming critical when many apartment buildings remain without heating.
Temps will fall more than 15C below average sometimes 20C below. Life threatening cold. The situation becoming critical when many apartment buildings remain without heating.
I need to start looking at all the new features of the new IOS updates on the #Iphone17ProMax
January 28, 2026 at 1:57 PM
I need to start looking at all the new features of the new IOS updates on the #Iphone17ProMax
GFS 00z & ECMWF 00z both showing interest after the first week of February... models seems to be showing some consistency in this but again they change fast so it's best to keep things on the low side for now.
January 28, 2026 at 9:52 AM
GFS 00z & ECMWF 00z both showing interest after the first week of February... models seems to be showing some consistency in this but again they change fast so it's best to keep things on the low side for now.
GFS 18z showing the potential yet again for colder weather possibly towards the end of the first week of February. Lots of interest around this timeframe that's for sure, especially if you love cold weather
January 27, 2026 at 10:41 PM
GFS 18z showing the potential yet again for colder weather possibly towards the end of the first week of February. Lots of interest around this timeframe that's for sure, especially if you love cold weather
ECMWF 12z showing some interesting long-range signals around mid-Feb 👀❄️
We’re talking ~300hrs out, so this is pattern watching only – NOT a forecast.
Greenland blocking trying to show up, and GFS is hinting at a similar idea now too.
Plenty can change, but enough there for cold fans to keep eye on
We’re talking ~300hrs out, so this is pattern watching only – NOT a forecast.
Greenland blocking trying to show up, and GFS is hinting at a similar idea now too.
Plenty can change, but enough there for cold fans to keep eye on
January 27, 2026 at 8:01 PM
ECMWF 12z showing some interesting long-range signals around mid-Feb 👀❄️
We’re talking ~300hrs out, so this is pattern watching only – NOT a forecast.
Greenland blocking trying to show up, and GFS is hinting at a similar idea now too.
Plenty can change, but enough there for cold fans to keep eye on
We’re talking ~300hrs out, so this is pattern watching only – NOT a forecast.
Greenland blocking trying to show up, and GFS is hinting at a similar idea now too.
Plenty can change, but enough there for cold fans to keep eye on
GFS 12z continues to tease the idea of colder conditions heading into the second week of February ❄️
Still low confidence given the timeframe and ongoing model volatility, so plenty of scope for changes yet. ECMWF 12z later should add a bit more clarity 👀📊
Still low confidence given the timeframe and ongoing model volatility, so plenty of scope for changes yet. ECMWF 12z later should add a bit more clarity 👀📊
January 27, 2026 at 5:27 PM
GFS 12z continues to tease the idea of colder conditions heading into the second week of February ❄️
Still low confidence given the timeframe and ongoing model volatility, so plenty of scope for changes yet. ECMWF 12z later should add a bit more clarity 👀📊
Still low confidence given the timeframe and ongoing model volatility, so plenty of scope for changes yet. ECMWF 12z later should add a bit more clarity 👀📊
The models are struggling big time aren't they? Another output which shows the possibility of colder conditions returning which would be good for us cold lovers. Though consistency is needed and other models to jump on board
January 24, 2026 at 8:33 PM
The models are struggling big time aren't they? Another output which shows the possibility of colder conditions returning which would be good for us cold lovers. Though consistency is needed and other models to jump on board
GFS 06z is showing plenty of scatter still with colder runs still showing up... it goes to show that it's still a massive headache with looking at the outlook even past day 5
January 22, 2026 at 2:10 PM
GFS 06z is showing plenty of scatter still with colder runs still showing up... it goes to show that it's still a massive headache with looking at the outlook even past day 5