Giuseppe Spatafora
@gspataf95.bsky.social
Analyst for transatlantic relations 🇺🇸 at @euiss.bsky.social 🇪🇺. PhD International Relations @politicsoxford.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk. Formerly at NATO Policy Planning Unit, ISF fellow 2025
Pinned
The transatlantic partnership was built on trust.
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁” 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽? Today we publish our latest @euiss.bsky.social Chaillot Paper on transatlantic relations - a collective work edited by me, @sbeverts.bsky.social & Alice Ekman. 1/🧵
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations:
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
November 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations:
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
Brussels is racing to put together a new plan by the end of this year to secure the EU's supply of so-called critical raw materials away from China.
The big hurdle: Money.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
The big hurdle: Money.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
November 2, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
🇺🇸 Following the US troop drawdown in Romania, @gspataf95.bsky.social tells @apnews.com the move could undermine NATO's deterrent effect.
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
The US draws down troops on NATO's eastern flank as Europe frets about a security vacuum
The U.S. confirms it will reduce its troop presence on NATO’s borders with Ukraine. This move has raised concerns among allies about a potential security gap as Russia becomes more confrontational.
apnews.com
October 30, 2025 at 11:20 AM
🇺🇸 Following the US troop drawdown in Romania, @gspataf95.bsky.social tells @apnews.com the move could undermine NATO's deterrent effect.
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
Glad to be quoted in the @apnews.com article on 700 US troops being rotated out of Romania: “we do know the direction of travel: fewer US troops and assets"... “Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further, checking how the alliance responds” apnews.com/article/nato...
The US draws down troops on NATO's eastern flank as Europe frets about a security vacuum
The U.S. confirms it will reduce its troop presence on NATO’s borders with Ukraine. This move has raised concerns among allies about a potential security gap as Russia becomes more confrontational.
apnews.com
October 29, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Glad to be quoted in the @apnews.com article on 700 US troops being rotated out of Romania: “we do know the direction of travel: fewer US troops and assets"... “Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further, checking how the alliance responds” apnews.com/article/nato...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
🙄
“But Sardinia’s regional council—led by the leftwing populist Five Star Movement — has refused to approve it and demanded more information, citing criticism from local environmentalists and anti-war activists”
on.ft.com/4oe1VQx Italian pacifists stymie Europe’s plan to boost ammunition production
“But Sardinia’s regional council—led by the leftwing populist Five Star Movement — has refused to approve it and demanded more information, citing criticism from local environmentalists and anti-war activists”
on.ft.com/4oe1VQx Italian pacifists stymie Europe’s plan to boost ammunition production
Italian pacifists stymie Europe’s plan to boost ammunition production
Anti-establishment politicians oppose expansion of Rheinmetall plant in Sardinia
on.ft.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:10 AM
🙄
“But Sardinia’s regional council—led by the leftwing populist Five Star Movement — has refused to approve it and demanded more information, citing criticism from local environmentalists and anti-war activists”
on.ft.com/4oe1VQx Italian pacifists stymie Europe’s plan to boost ammunition production
“But Sardinia’s regional council—led by the leftwing populist Five Star Movement — has refused to approve it and demanded more information, citing criticism from local environmentalists and anti-war activists”
on.ft.com/4oe1VQx Italian pacifists stymie Europe’s plan to boost ammunition production
After the events of the weekend (cfr @financialtimes.com article), it is clearer that we live in an age of "low trust" in transatlantic relations. Read our @euiss.bsky.social report on navigating this new era👇
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁” 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽? Today we publish our latest @euiss.bsky.social Chaillot Paper on transatlantic relations - a collective work edited by me, @sbeverts.bsky.social & Alice Ekman. 1/🧵
The transatlantic partnership was built on trust.
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
October 20, 2025 at 6:10 AM
After the events of the weekend (cfr @financialtimes.com article), it is clearer that we live in an age of "low trust" in transatlantic relations. Read our @euiss.bsky.social report on navigating this new era👇
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
The Chaillot Paper is edited by @gspataf95.bsky.social , @sbeverts.bsky.social and Alice Ekman and includes chapters covering many policy fields and regions across the globe:
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Low trust: navigating transatlantic relations under Trump 2.0
The transatlantic relationship has changed profoundly. Europe must recognise it and act accordingly. We explore how the EU can move transatlantic relations forward in an age of low trust, and how othe...
www.iss.europa.eu
October 15, 2025 at 5:04 PM
The Chaillot Paper is edited by @gspataf95.bsky.social , @sbeverts.bsky.social and Alice Ekman and includes chapters covering many policy fields and regions across the globe:
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁” 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽? Today we publish our latest @euiss.bsky.social Chaillot Paper on transatlantic relations - a collective work edited by me, @sbeverts.bsky.social & Alice Ekman. 1/🧵
The transatlantic partnership was built on trust.
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
October 15, 2025 at 8:14 AM
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁” 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽? Today we publish our latest @euiss.bsky.social Chaillot Paper on transatlantic relations - a collective work edited by me, @sbeverts.bsky.social & Alice Ekman. 1/🧵
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
🛡️ From securing supply chains and defence ties to fighting transnational organised crime, the EU, Latin America & the Caribbean face common security challenges.
🤝 Ahead of the 2025 #EUCELAC Summit, we held an event to level up the security dimension in cross-regional relations.
🤝 Ahead of the 2025 #EUCELAC Summit, we held an event to level up the security dimension in cross-regional relations.
October 9, 2025 at 10:44 AM
🛡️ From securing supply chains and defence ties to fighting transnational organised crime, the EU, Latin America & the Caribbean face common security challenges.
🤝 Ahead of the 2025 #EUCELAC Summit, we held an event to level up the security dimension in cross-regional relations.
🤝 Ahead of the 2025 #EUCELAC Summit, we held an event to level up the security dimension in cross-regional relations.
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
My regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict is now available. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...
Deep Strikes are Hurting Putin & Russia: The Big Five 5 October edition
My regular update on global conflict. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads.
mickryan.substack.com
October 6, 2025 at 4:25 AM
My regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict is now available. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Fighter jets are too costly against cheap #drones and Europe can’t rely on the US, which is also new to this game. @gspataf95.bsky.social in the Washington Post on the EU's planned "drone wall". www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
October 1, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Fighter jets are too costly against cheap #drones and Europe can’t rely on the US, which is also new to this game. @gspataf95.bsky.social in the Washington Post on the EU's planned "drone wall". www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
A little present this morning: being quoted on the @washingtonpost.com article on Europe's drone wall plan: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
As Russia menaces NATO skies, E.U. plans to build a shield against drones
E.U. leaders say they want to build a “drone wall” along the borders with Russia and Ukraine after incursions into NATO airspace have raised alarm.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 1, 2025 at 12:24 PM
A little present this morning: being quoted on the @washingtonpost.com article on Europe's drone wall plan: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Glad for the conversation I had with @benhallnews.bsky.social @financialtimes.com in preparation for their article on European airspace vulnerabilities and Russia's growing boldness.
Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...
Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...
Denmark drone incidents expose European airspace vulnerabilities
Job of protecting critical national infrastructure grows more complex as Russia tests Nato members
www.ft.com
September 26, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Glad for the conversation I had with @benhallnews.bsky.social @financialtimes.com in preparation for their article on European airspace vulnerabilities and Russia's growing boldness.
Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...
Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...
#Moldova votes this weekend, amid accusations of Russian interference. A snapshot of how elections were targeted in 2024 ⤵️ From @gspataf95.bsky.social & Nad’a Kovalčíková's Brief: ow.ly/wHyH50X239c.
September 26, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told us.
Prepare for possible US troop drawdown in Europe, Estonia says
President Alar Karis warns that all European countries should be prepared for Russian provocations.
ow.ly
September 5, 2025 at 7:16 AM
European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told us.
Previewing the latest @euiss.bsky.social research at #EUISS2025 Annual Conference
📢 How can the EU navigate a transatlantic relationship marked by low trust?
@gspataf95.bsky.social takes the stage to present our upcoming new Chaillot Paper at #EUISS2025.
@gspataf95.bsky.social takes the stage to present our upcoming new Chaillot Paper at #EUISS2025.
September 5, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Previewing the latest @euiss.bsky.social research at #EUISS2025 Annual Conference
September 3, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
This week has seen a whirlwind of diplomatic summits, full of drama and controversy but not much clarity.
If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts:
#EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump
If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts:
#EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump
Where do we stand after the Alaska and Washington Summits?
After the high-stakes Alaska and Washington summits, Europe has managed to hold the line, buying time and keeping Ukraine at the centre of transatlantic diplomacy. Yet, Trump’s commitment remains a do...
www.iss.europa.eu
August 20, 2025 at 1:39 PM
This week has seen a whirlwind of diplomatic summits, full of drama and controversy but not much clarity.
If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts:
#EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump
If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts:
#EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
“In general, the Europeans talk much more often to Trump than during the first 100 days, which is good. They have influence. But it’s limited,” says @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Europe is sending heavy hitters to Washington alongside Ukraine’s president to bolster Kyiv
European leaders are on an all-out push to forestall Oval Office conflict at a crucial stage in diplomacy to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.
www.politico.com
August 18, 2025 at 9:10 AM
“In general, the Europeans talk much more often to Trump than during the first 100 days, which is good. They have influence. But it’s limited,” says @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Yesterday, I was interviewed by @france24.com for "Around the World" on the phone call between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. We touched upon EU attempts to influence Trump, the risks of the meeting, Putin's intentions, and the real obstacles to a ceasefire.
European leaders know the #Alaska meeting will be unpredictable. They’ve given Trump key messages for his talks with Putin, hoping to influence a room they won’t be in, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social on @france24.com.
📺 Watch: www.france24.com/en/video/202...
📺 Watch: www.france24.com/en/video/202...
August 14, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Yesterday, I was interviewed by @france24.com for "Around the World" on the phone call between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. We touched upon EU attempts to influence Trump, the risks of the meeting, Putin's intentions, and the real obstacles to a ceasefire.
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
A fundamental question this article raises is whether Trump & Co. care about NATO allies who use "creative accounting" or whether they are going to look the other way and declare victory.
www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...
www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...
How NATO is using creative accounting to meet Trump's spending demands
In the Trump-brokered agreement for NATO to increase its defense spending, 'defense-related' projects take on a new definition.
www.newsweek.com
August 11, 2025 at 2:06 PM
A fundamental question this article raises is whether Trump & Co. care about NATO allies who use "creative accounting" or whether they are going to look the other way and declare victory.
www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...
www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
💡 The EU can address both its security & competitiveness crises with a new tool: increased defence budgets.
Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...
Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...
August 1, 2025 at 10:20 AM
💡 The EU can address both its security & competitiveness crises with a new tool: increased defence budgets.
Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...
Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...
Maybe that's the point...pressure on spending 5% quickly will lead to pressure to buy off the shelf american...
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger
An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting
www.ft.com
July 29, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Maybe that's the point...pressure on spending 5% quickly will lead to pressure to buy off the shelf american...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger
An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting
www.ft.com
July 28, 2025 at 2:48 PM
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Absolutely yes. And the keyword here is "strategic": it's not smart to give yourself the means without the ends, and Europeans are clearly failing in defining the ends.
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger
An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting
www.ft.com
July 29, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Absolutely yes. And the keyword here is "strategic": it's not smart to give yourself the means without the ends, and Europeans are clearly failing in defining the ends.