Giuseppe Spatafora
@gspataf95.bsky.social
Analyst for transatlantic relations 🇺🇸 at @euiss.bsky.social 🇪🇺. PhD International Relations @politicsoxford.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk. Formerly at NATO Policy Planning Unit, ISF fellow 2025
Pinned
Giuseppe Spatafora
@gspataf95.bsky.social
· Oct 15
The transatlantic partnership was built on trust.
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Today, that trust is rapidly eroding.
🧭 Europe must adapt — and learn to navigate this age of low trust.
New Chaillot Paper 👉 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁” 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽? Today we publish our latest @euiss.bsky.social Chaillot Paper on transatlantic relations - a collective work edited by me, @sbeverts.bsky.social & Alice Ekman. 1/🧵
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Trump claims to have ended 8 wars in 2025.
Many of these US-brokered peace deals include economic components, such as access to minerals, making them tools to forge business ties & secure new resources.
More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
Many of these US-brokered peace deals include economic components, such as access to minerals, making them tools to forge business ties & secure new resources.
More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
February 6, 2026 at 11:24 AM
Trump claims to have ended 8 wars in 2025.
Many of these US-brokered peace deals include economic components, such as access to minerals, making them tools to forge business ties & secure new resources.
More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
Many of these US-brokered peace deals include economic components, such as access to minerals, making them tools to forge business ties & secure new resources.
More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Nearly 500 US military strikes in 12 months - more than under Biden in four years.
From 'America First' to 'Foreign Policy-First'?
📊 Our interactive analysis of US foreign policy under Trump, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
From 'America First' to 'Foreign Policy-First'?
📊 Our interactive analysis of US foreign policy under Trump, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
February 5, 2026 at 8:50 AM
Nearly 500 US military strikes in 12 months - more than under Biden in four years.
From 'America First' to 'Foreign Policy-First'?
📊 Our interactive analysis of US foreign policy under Trump, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
From 'America First' to 'Foreign Policy-First'?
📊 Our interactive analysis of US foreign policy under Trump, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆-𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆
It was supposed to be America First — but #Trump 2.0 has been defined above all by foreign policy.
My latest @euiss.bsky.social data analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
It was supposed to be America First — but #Trump 2.0 has been defined above all by foreign policy.
My latest @euiss.bsky.social data analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
The Foreign Policy-First President?
Donald Trump’s second term has defied expectations of isolationism. This interactive publication uses data and visuals to map the main axes of US foreign policy under Trump 2.0: military intervention,...
www.iss.europa.eu
February 5, 2026 at 8:33 AM
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆-𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆
It was supposed to be America First — but #Trump 2.0 has been defined above all by foreign policy.
My latest @euiss.bsky.social data analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
It was supposed to be America First — but #Trump 2.0 has been defined above all by foreign policy.
My latest @euiss.bsky.social data analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
💡 @gspataf95.bsky.social opens the panel discussion with policy-makers and practitioners connecting the survey results to the EU's strategic priorities. 🧵
January 20, 2026 at 4:12 PM
💡 @gspataf95.bsky.social opens the panel discussion with policy-makers and practitioners connecting the survey results to the EU's strategic priorities. 🧵
Read below the results of our latest collaboration w. @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-schuman.bsky.social @vanghel.bsky.social @erik-jones.bsky.social
💥 What are Europe’s top security threats in 2026?
@vanghel.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social analyse the findings of the Global Risks to the EU survey & what they reveal about Europe’s security environment.
Read 🔗 ow.ly/Xqvt50Y002s
@vanghel.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social analyse the findings of the Global Risks to the EU survey & what they reveal about Europe’s security environment.
Read 🔗 ow.ly/Xqvt50Y002s
January 20, 2026 at 2:10 PM
Read below the results of our latest collaboration w. @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-schuman.bsky.social @vanghel.bsky.social @erik-jones.bsky.social
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
#Greenland: a stronger European presence in the region is necessary, not only to deter Russian or Chinese influence but also to reinforce the principle that allied territories will be defended against all threats. Giuseppe Spatafora for Anadolu ⤵️
Europe's Greenland challenge: With Trump eyeing island, limited EU seeks way to protect it
Experts warn any military attempt to acquire island would have severe political consequences, violate international law - Anadolu Ajansı
www.aa.com.tr
January 13, 2026 at 1:00 PM
#Greenland: a stronger European presence in the region is necessary, not only to deter Russian or Chinese influence but also to reinforce the principle that allied territories will be defended against all threats. Giuseppe Spatafora for Anadolu ⤵️
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Venezuela’s crisis won’t stay within its borders. Pressure is already felt in Colombia & Cuba, while US strikes on coca crops, fentanyl labs or criminal hubs across the region are now plausible, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social.
🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI
🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI
After Maduro: The future of Venezuela and the Caribbean
The US ousting of Maduro generates new uncertainties for Venezuela and the Caribbean. Several pathways could lead to regional instability, with direct consequences for European interests and partners....
ow.ly
January 13, 2026 at 10:10 AM
Venezuela’s crisis won’t stay within its borders. Pressure is already felt in Colombia & Cuba, while US strikes on coca crops, fentanyl labs or criminal hubs across the region are now plausible, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social.
🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI
🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Joint statement by 4 former officials in Democratic and Republican Administrations—including four NATO Ambassadors, 3 Assistant Secretaries of State for Europe, and 3 NSC Senior Directors.
Excellent opening in particular.
Excellent opening in particular.
America’s Strategic Alliance with Denmark and NATO
A statement by 14 former officials in Democratic and Republican Administrations—including four NATO Ambassadors, 3 Assistant Secretaries of State for Europe, and 3 NSC Senior Directors
newsletter.ivodaalder.com
January 11, 2026 at 6:09 PM
Joint statement by 4 former officials in Democratic and Republican Administrations—including four NATO Ambassadors, 3 Assistant Secretaries of State for Europe, and 3 NSC Senior Directors.
Excellent opening in particular.
Excellent opening in particular.
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
In #Greenland all US goals can be attained through cooperation with Denmark & Europe. This must be visible in deeds, not just words, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social in Defense News.
🔗 www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
🔗 www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
January 9, 2026 at 10:25 AM
In #Greenland all US goals can be attained through cooperation with Denmark & Europe. This must be visible in deeds, not just words, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social in Defense News.
🔗 www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
🔗 www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
A lot has been said about the next 🇺🇸 foreign policy moves after the seizing of Maduro.
But what could be the consequences of Maduro's ousting for the Caribbean region? And why does this directly affect Europe?
My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:
But what could be the consequences of Maduro's ousting for the Caribbean region? And why does this directly affect Europe?
My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:
Maduro’s ousting has pushed the Caribbean into uncharted waters. Europe must prepare for the fallout of Venezuela’s crisis & take concrete steps to protect EU territories and regional partners, writes @gspataf95.bsky.social.
➡️ Read the analysis🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI
➡️ Read the analysis🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI
January 7, 2026 at 3:09 PM
A lot has been said about the next 🇺🇸 foreign policy moves after the seizing of Maduro.
But what could be the consequences of Maduro's ousting for the Caribbean region? And why does this directly affect Europe?
My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:
But what could be the consequences of Maduro's ousting for the Caribbean region? And why does this directly affect Europe?
My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Les Européens doivent gérer une hiérarchie de menaces en parant au plus pressé : d’abord la Russie, puis la Chine et, enfin, commencer à appréhender la transition des États-Unis du statut d’allié à celui d’adversaire, voire de menace, explique @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
Raid américain au Venezuela : les Européens tétanisés face à l’agressivité de Donald Trump
RÉCIT - Le Danemark et ses alliés prennent très au sérieux les menaces du président américain sur le Groenland, réaffirmées après son spectaculaire coup de force au Venezuela.
www.lefigaro.fr
January 7, 2026 at 11:03 AM
Les Européens doivent gérer une hiérarchie de menaces en parant au plus pressé : d’abord la Russie, puis la Chine et, enfin, commencer à appréhender la transition des États-Unis du statut d’allié à celui d’adversaire, voire de menace, explique @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
The Americas have become the laboratory of Trump 2.0’s foreign policy: tariffs, aid cuts, military deployments & claims on Greenland. Europe should respond by becoming an active player in the region and challenge the Monroe Doctrine, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social 🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
January 5, 2026 at 1:25 PM
The Americas have become the laboratory of Trump 2.0’s foreign policy: tariffs, aid cuts, military deployments & claims on Greenland. Europe should respond by becoming an active player in the region and challenge the Monroe Doctrine, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social 🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Linking Africa & South America, the South Atlantic is fast becoming a pivotal arena where security risks, economic opportunities & global competition converge. The EU must step up strategically to avoid losing influence, argue Rossella Marangio & @gspataf95.bsky.social.
🔗 ow.ly/aj3z50XHpc3
🔗 ow.ly/aj3z50XHpc3
December 11, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Linking Africa & South America, the South Atlantic is fast becoming a pivotal arena where security risks, economic opportunities & global competition converge. The EU must step up strategically to avoid losing influence, argue Rossella Marangio & @gspataf95.bsky.social.
🔗 ow.ly/aj3z50XHpc3
🔗 ow.ly/aj3z50XHpc3
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
As the gap between national sovereignty and regional collaboration widens, @gspataf95.bsky.social flags the high risk of US withdrawal from Europe.
More in #F24Debate ➡️ f24.my/6GOp
More in #F24Debate ➡️ f24.my/6GOp
December 9, 2025 at 9:03 PM
As the gap between national sovereignty and regional collaboration widens, @gspataf95.bsky.social flags the high risk of US withdrawal from Europe.
More in #F24Debate ➡️ f24.my/6GOp
More in #F24Debate ➡️ f24.my/6GOp
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
"European leaders must adjust to a new reality in which US interests don’t necessarily match theirs".
@gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to the Washington Post as NATO allies worry Washington is charting its own course on the peace talks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
@gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to the Washington Post as NATO allies worry Washington is charting its own course on the peace talks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
In Russia talks, NATO allies fear Trump is doing his ‘own thing’
In negotiations over Ukraine, European officials say President Trump’s team has positioned the U.S. as an independent arbiter rather than the leading voice of NATO.
www.washingtonpost.com
December 9, 2025 at 9:46 AM
"European leaders must adjust to a new reality in which US interests don’t necessarily match theirs".
@gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to the Washington Post as NATO allies worry Washington is charting its own course on the peace talks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
@gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to the Washington Post as NATO allies worry Washington is charting its own course on the peace talks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
We are in the age of low trust
The new US National Security Strategy & its sharp criticism of Europe signals a deep erosion of trust. @gspataf95.bsky.social highlights how hostile voices in Washington contribute to this trend & how Europe must prepare for more crises. 🔗http://ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO
Low trust: navigating transatlantic relations under Trump 2.0
The transatlantic relationship has changed profoundly. Europe must recognise it and act accordingly. We explore how the EU can move transatlantic relations forward in an age of low trust, and how othe...
ow.ly
December 8, 2025 at 2:47 PM
We are in the age of low trust
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Europe needs a new playbook for dealing with Trump in 2026, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social. That means adopting a transactional approach: speaking to Trump in terms he responds to & use the EU-US trade deal as leverage. www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
'You can’t turn Trump into Biden': Europe needs a new approach in 2026
As Washington’s overtures to Moscow grow, the EU risks being sidelined. Europe must adopt a more transactional strategy to safeguard its security and secure a voice in shaping the continent’s future s...
www.iss.europa.eu
December 4, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Europe needs a new playbook for dealing with Trump in 2026, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social. That means adopting a transactional approach: speaking to Trump in terms he responds to & use the EU-US trade deal as leverage. www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Europe's influence over the US is dwindling. The approach used in 2025 has not fundamentally changed the basic direction of US policy. It's time for Europeans to adopt a different paradigm. My latest
@euiss.bsky.social
commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden"
@euiss.bsky.social
commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden"
Europe’s Trump strategy is outdated. For 2026, it need a new approach: more transactional and leveraging US pressure points ahead of the midterms, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/GEoe50XBc9J
December 3, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Europe's influence over the US is dwindling. The approach used in 2025 has not fundamentally changed the basic direction of US policy. It's time for Europeans to adopt a different paradigm. My latest
@euiss.bsky.social
commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden"
@euiss.bsky.social
commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden"
Europe's influence over the US is dwindling. The approach used in 2025 has not fundamentally changed the basic direction of US policy. It's time for Europeans to adopt a different paradigm. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
'You can’t turn Trump into Biden': Europe needs a new approach in 2026
As Washington’s overtures to Moscow grow, the EU risks being sidelined. Europe must adopt a more transactional strategy to safeguard its security and secure a voice in shaping the continent’s future s...
www.iss.europa.eu
December 3, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Europe's influence over the US is dwindling. The approach used in 2025 has not fundamentally changed the basic direction of US policy. It's time for Europeans to adopt a different paradigm. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Warships, bombers, a carrier strike group: the US is mounting a massive military build-up in the Caribbean, officially for counter-narcotics. Could more be at play? @gspataf95.bsky.social analyses the situation and the implications for Europe. 🔗 ow.ly/Yj5V50XsX2r
Warm waters: The Caribbean between counter-narcotics operations and the prospects of regime change
A major US military build-up is under way in the Caribbean, officially to target drug-trafficking networks. But the scale of the deployment raises questions about possible regime-change ambitions in V...
ow.ly
November 17, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Warships, bombers, a carrier strike group: the US is mounting a massive military build-up in the Caribbean, officially for counter-narcotics. Could more be at play? @gspataf95.bsky.social analyses the situation and the implications for Europe. 🔗 ow.ly/Yj5V50XsX2r
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
The US is carrying out a major military build-up in the Caribbean, officially for counter-narcotics. But the scale is fuelling speculation about possible regime change in Venezuela. What does this mean for Europe? @gspataf95.bsky.social explores the stakes: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
November 14, 2025 at 11:26 AM
The US is carrying out a major military build-up in the Caribbean, officially for counter-narcotics. But the scale is fuelling speculation about possible regime change in Venezuela. What does this mean for Europe? @gspataf95.bsky.social explores the stakes: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Just back from DC, where among other things I could learn more about the US operations in the Caribbean. I summarise my understanding of the situation in the newest
@euiss.bsky.social commentary "Warm waters" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
@euiss.bsky.social commentary "Warm waters" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Warm waters: The Caribbean between counter-narcotics operations and the prospects of regime change
A major US military build-up is under way in the Caribbean, officially to target drug-trafficking networks. But the scale of the deployment raises questions about possible regime-change ambitions in V...
www.iss.europa.eu
November 14, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Just back from DC, where among other things I could learn more about the US operations in the Caribbean. I summarise my understanding of the situation in the newest
@euiss.bsky.social commentary "Warm waters" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
@euiss.bsky.social commentary "Warm waters" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations:
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
November 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations:
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe
Brussels is racing to put together a new plan by the end of this year to secure the EU's supply of so-called critical raw materials away from China.
The big hurdle: Money.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
The big hurdle: Money.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
November 2, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
🇺🇸 Following the US troop drawdown in Romania, @gspataf95.bsky.social tells @apnews.com the move could undermine NATO's deterrent effect.
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
The US draws down troops on NATO's eastern flank as Europe frets about a security vacuum
The U.S. confirms it will reduce its troop presence on NATO’s borders with Ukraine. This move has raised concerns among allies about a potential security gap as Russia becomes more confrontational.
apnews.com
October 30, 2025 at 11:20 AM
🇺🇸 Following the US troop drawdown in Romania, @gspataf95.bsky.social tells @apnews.com the move could undermine NATO's deterrent effect.
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...
💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...