Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations:
🔹 Unpredictability
🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty
🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe

Thanks Jason - and indeed, cuts may be small or big, but are likely nonetheless

Update: on Wed 22 October 11am CET, I'll discuss the report online w. coauthors @lscazzieri.bsky.social @leodeago.bsky.social @katarzyna-sidlo.bsky.social & Bojana Zoric. Sign up here: www.linkedin.com/events/lowtr...

The Chaillot Paper is edited by @gspataf95.bsky.social , @sbeverts.bsky.social and Alice Ekman and includes chapters covering many policy fields and regions across the globe:
www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

10/
Read our Chaillot Paper: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

9/
Strategic moves
3️⃣𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: plan for crises as the new normal
4️⃣𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫: build Europe’s will and capacity to act on its own
5️⃣𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩: strengthen alliances across the world with concrete offers

8/ Tactical moves
1️⃣𝐏𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐦: cooperate where interests still align
2️⃣ 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞: continue engaging with Washington at the highest level

7/
⚖️ In the conclusion, @sbeverts.bsky.social & I argue that navigating this era of 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 requires both tactical adaptation to keep the relationship functioning, and strategic moves to strengthen Europe's ability to defend its interests

6/
👉 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 in dealing with Trump 2.0: the Americas (@gspataf95.bsky.social), North-East Asia (Lizza Bomassi), the Western Balkans (Bojana Zorić), the Gulf (@katarzyna-sidlo.bsky.social) &Sub-Saharan Africa (Rossella Marangio)

5/
👉 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗘𝗨-𝗨𝗦 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲: disinformation (@leodeago.bsky.social), the “tech industrial complex” (@clotildebomont.bsky.social), climate & energy (@casparhobhouse.bsky.social).

4/
📖 In this Chaillot Paper, we examine:
👉 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: European defence (@lscazzieri.bsky.social), support to Ukraine (@ditrych.bsky.social), China policy (@ruehlig.bsky.social)

3/
🔹 Hostile elements to Europe have influence within the administration
🔹 A president defined by unpredictability and volatility
🔹 A policy process where loyalty is privileged above all
➡️ These shifts erode 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁, making traditional engagement harder than ever.

2/ Almost one year into President Trump’s re-election, 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁.There has been no complete rupture – European leaders are still managing ties with Washington. But the way the US behaves and interacts with Europe – and the world – has 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆:

“The other side can just keep throwing things at you,”... “There’s only a certain number of fighter jets, each of them carries a certain amount of munitions, which tends to be quite high-tech and expensive. You cannot expend them easily.”

👉“Although NATO has the top-level defense capabilities,” Spatafora added, “they are not enough to deal with cheap drones that can be sent in droves and make a lot of damage.”

👉“The U.S. is sort of new to this game as well,” Spatafora said. “So the Europeans, basically they cannot just rely on U.S. capabilities. It’s new for everyone.”