Fernando Martel García
@fmgbsky.bsky.social
𝙲𝚊𝚞𝚜𝚊𝚕 𝙸𝚗𝚏𝚎𝚛𝚎𝚗𝚌𝚎 | 𝚁𝚎𝚜𝚎𝚊𝚛𝚌𝚑 𝙿𝚛𝚊𝚌𝚝𝚒𝚌𝚎 | 𝙴𝚗𝚝𝚛𝚎𝚙𝚛𝚎𝚗𝚎𝚞𝚛𝚜𝚑𝚒𝚙
𝕎𝕒𝕤𝕙𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕥𝕠𝕟, 𝔻.ℂ. | Blog: https://www.fernandomartel.com/blog-1
𝕎𝕒𝕤𝕙𝕚𝕟𝕘𝕥𝕠𝕟, 𝔻.ℂ. | Blog: https://www.fernandomartel.com/blog-1
Pinned
Want to experience the future of scientific work?
Take a screenshot of the tiny data set below and get your favorite LLM to analyze it. You can do it on your phone.
I wrote about my experience here www.fernandomartel.com/post/racing-...
Take a screenshot of the tiny data set below and get your favorite LLM to analyze it. You can do it on your phone.
I wrote about my experience here www.fernandomartel.com/post/racing-...
I find this very counterintuitive. IMHO longer letters send a worse signal than shorter letters. Shorter is a lot harder than longer, while still a packing a punch. Why are folks using AI to write longer letters?
I have been writing for years about the fact that we are not ready for the destruction of costly signalling mechanisms. Writing used to be a way of measuring effort, ability and diligence. We still have no easy substitute
Now this paper confirms that cover letters have lost their value as predictor
Now this paper confirms that cover letters have lost their value as predictor
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 AM
I find this very counterintuitive. IMHO longer letters send a worse signal than shorter letters. Shorter is a lot harder than longer, while still a packing a punch. Why are folks using AI to write longer letters?
Such a metric of success may introduce a conservative incentive, no? E.g. where are you more likely to deviate all else equal: Doing a field experiment in a war torn country, or with grad student at Yale? Which would you choose if you wanted to minimize deviations?
September 24, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Such a metric of success may introduce a conservative incentive, no? E.g. where are you more likely to deviate all else equal: Doing a field experiment in a war torn country, or with grad student at Yale? Which would you choose if you wanted to minimize deviations?
Good to see AI startups tackling judgemental forecasting, a seriously underused technique in business and government alike:
Mantic launch blog: A new kind of foresight
Mantic launch post
www.mantic.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Good to see AI startups tackling judgemental forecasting, a seriously underused technique in business and government alike:
Here is one example onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
My motivation comes for something I wrote a while back. See the section entitled "Move fast, break (little) things" in this blog post www.fernandomartel.com/post/politic...
My motivation comes for something I wrote a while back. See the section entitled "Move fast, break (little) things" in this blog post www.fernandomartel.com/post/politic...
The value of information and optimal clinical trial design
Traditional sample size calculations for randomized clinical trials depend on somewhat arbitrarily chosen factors, such as type I and II errors. Type I error, the probability of rejecting the null hy...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 29, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Here is one example onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
My motivation comes for something I wrote a while back. See the section entitled "Move fast, break (little) things" in this blog post www.fernandomartel.com/post/politic...
My motivation comes for something I wrote a while back. See the section entitled "Move fast, break (little) things" in this blog post www.fernandomartel.com/post/politic...
Value of Information for deciding what initiatives to experiment on, and inform experiment design?
August 28, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Value of Information for deciding what initiatives to experiment on, and inform experiment design?
In the stochastic world of AI models "it takes a scientist to build AI products."
Source:
Source:
Building AI Products In The Probabilistic Era
AI turns products from deterministic functions into probabilistic systems. That requires expanding old playbooks (SLOs, funnels, siloed finance), and reasoning in terms of trajectories, Minimum…
giansegato.com
August 28, 2025 at 3:46 PM
In the stochastic world of AI models "it takes a scientist to build AI products."
Source:
Source:
TIL the auto save feature only works if you have a OneDrive account and the file is in a OneDrive folder.
"Growth teams" need to drive M365 subscriptions!
Even If you have a subscription, if you are working on an Excel file shared by a client in a Dropbox folder, Auto save won't work. 🤦♂️
"Growth teams" need to drive M365 subscriptions!
Even If you have a subscription, if you are working on an Excel file shared by a client in a Dropbox folder, Auto save won't work. 🤦♂️
July 17, 2025 at 1:03 PM
TIL the auto save feature only works if you have a OneDrive account and the file is in a OneDrive folder.
"Growth teams" need to drive M365 subscriptions!
Even If you have a subscription, if you are working on an Excel file shared by a client in a Dropbox folder, Auto save won't work. 🤦♂️
"Growth teams" need to drive M365 subscriptions!
Even If you have a subscription, if you are working on an Excel file shared by a client in a Dropbox folder, Auto save won't work. 🤦♂️
A big confounder here is age. E.g. the population of Barcelona is much older than that of LA. Would be good to plot death rates by age cohort across cities .
July 13, 2025 at 5:54 PM
A big confounder here is age. E.g. the population of Barcelona is much older than that of LA. Would be good to plot death rates by age cohort across cities .
If Schopenhauer is right that life boils down to a flight from either boredom or pain, then the real breakthrough in AI will come the day machines get bored or suffer pain.
Nothing will drive their agency like boredom and pain....
Nothing will drive their agency like boredom and pain....
May 8, 2025 at 3:46 PM
If Schopenhauer is right that life boils down to a flight from either boredom or pain, then the real breakthrough in AI will come the day machines get bored or suffer pain.
Nothing will drive their agency like boredom and pain....
Nothing will drive their agency like boredom and pain....
AI providers may want to change their demos: Nobody is using LLMs to plan trips and book flights.
SURPRISE: Many more people use #LLMs for personal purposes than for work-related activities – and that’s even true for those who have jobs. Part of a new report from @ITDFuture at Elon University about how people use & think about LLMs
imaginingthedigitalfuture.org/reports-and-...
#LLM #AIresearch
imaginingthedigitalfuture.org/reports-and-...
#LLM #AIresearch
April 23, 2025 at 1:19 AM
AI providers may want to change their demos: Nobody is using LLMs to plan trips and book flights.
You've heard of enshitification but have you heard of Carcinisation?
But what if I really want a faster horse? | exotext
But what if I really want a faster horse? | exotext
rakhim.exotext.com
April 22, 2025 at 3:46 PM
You've heard of enshitification but have you heard of Carcinisation?
Will AI replace scientists or create more demand for them? Will it accelerate discovery or bury us in AI-generated noise?
I don’t know. But we need to find out—fast. I started an initiative to explore AI’s impact on science.
Curious? Want to help?
I don’t know. But we need to find out—fast. I started an initiative to explore AI’s impact on science.
Curious? Want to help?
Home | The Future of Science
Exploring AI’s impact on science—one experiment at a time
www.futureofscience.ai
February 21, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Will AI replace scientists or create more demand for them? Will it accelerate discovery or bury us in AI-generated noise?
I don’t know. But we need to find out—fast. I started an initiative to explore AI’s impact on science.
Curious? Want to help?
I don’t know. But we need to find out—fast. I started an initiative to explore AI’s impact on science.
Curious? Want to help?
For lovers of the arcane: BASIC 10Liner Contest, a competition for the best short BASIC program
BASIC 10Liner Contest 2025 by BASIC 10Liner
[BASIC 10Liner 2025] [Invitation]
bunsen.itch.io
February 20, 2025 at 5:24 PM
For lovers of the arcane: BASIC 10Liner Contest, a competition for the best short BASIC program
Why AI Usage May Degrade Human Cognition And Blunt Critical Thinking Skills
Why AI Usage May Degrade Human Cognition And Blunt Critical Thinking Skills
Any statement regarding the potential benefits and/or hazards of AI tends to be automatically very divisive and controversial as the world tries to figure out what the technology means to them, and…
hackaday.com
February 18, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Why AI Usage May Degrade Human Cognition And Blunt Critical Thinking Skills
For the sake of argument:
If the test is a good predictor of job performance, and they can ace the test with AI, should they also not be able to ace the job with AI?
Maybe the problem here is that using AI is consider cheating?
If the test is a good predictor of job performance, and they can ace the test with AI, should they also not be able to ace the job with AI?
Maybe the problem here is that using AI is consider cheating?
February 16, 2025 at 2:13 AM
For the sake of argument:
If the test is a good predictor of job performance, and they can ace the test with AI, should they also not be able to ace the job with AI?
Maybe the problem here is that using AI is consider cheating?
If the test is a good predictor of job performance, and they can ace the test with AI, should they also not be able to ace the job with AI?
Maybe the problem here is that using AI is consider cheating?
To what extent will AI be able to compress this timeline?
Point solutions, like code auto completion, and app solutions, like AlphaFold, may only shrink it in the low teen percent.
True acceleration will require systemic solutions
Point solutions, like code auto completion, and app solutions, like AlphaFold, may only shrink it in the low teen percent.
True acceleration will require systemic solutions
February 15, 2025 at 12:04 AM
To what extent will AI be able to compress this timeline?
Point solutions, like code auto completion, and app solutions, like AlphaFold, may only shrink it in the low teen percent.
True acceleration will require systemic solutions
Point solutions, like code auto completion, and app solutions, like AlphaFold, may only shrink it in the low teen percent.
True acceleration will require systemic solutions
No doubt things have improved, and continue to get better.
But ten years ago I doubt you would have gotten those responses....
But ten years ago I doubt you would have gotten those responses....
February 13, 2025 at 3:19 AM
No doubt things have improved, and continue to get better.
But ten years ago I doubt you would have gotten those responses....
But ten years ago I doubt you would have gotten those responses....
10 years ago or so AJOS had an official editorial policy of not accepting unsolicited rejoinders or replications.
Of course, many replications of positive findings are likely to be null.
Not sure if that policy has changed but to me it was a major red flag for political science, as a science.
Of course, many replications of positive findings are likely to be null.
Not sure if that policy has changed but to me it was a major red flag for political science, as a science.
February 10, 2025 at 9:36 PM
10 years ago or so AJOS had an official editorial policy of not accepting unsolicited rejoinders or replications.
Of course, many replications of positive findings are likely to be null.
Not sure if that policy has changed but to me it was a major red flag for political science, as a science.
Of course, many replications of positive findings are likely to be null.
Not sure if that policy has changed but to me it was a major red flag for political science, as a science.
Reposted by Fernando Martel García
Many follow scientists for their science, not politics. I wish there was a community norm to label political posts #political. That way users can filter out politics, and scientists can freely express views without fear of losing followers. It's a win win.
January 30, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Many follow scientists for their science, not politics. I wish there was a community norm to label political posts #political. That way users can filter out politics, and scientists can freely express views without fear of losing followers. It's a win win.
Many follow scientists for their science, not politics. I wish there was a community norm to label political posts #political. That way users can filter out politics, and scientists can freely express views without fear of losing followers. It's a win win.
January 30, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Many follow scientists for their science, not politics. I wish there was a community norm to label political posts #political. That way users can filter out politics, and scientists can freely express views without fear of losing followers. It's a win win.
Adding a Public Choice perspective....
January 24, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Adding a Public Choice perspective....
The question is a little unclear: What if you compare the means of rank transformed data?
January 24, 2025 at 3:10 AM
The question is a little unclear: What if you compare the means of rank transformed data?
Wasn't there a time when IV was all the rage?
January 24, 2025 at 2:54 AM
Wasn't there a time when IV was all the rage?
Reminds me of Tim Berners-Lee vision of the Semantic Web (plus a sprinkling of Robotic Process Automation).
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semanti...
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semanti...
January 24, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Reminds me of Tim Berners-Lee vision of the Semantic Web (plus a sprinkling of Robotic Process Automation).
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semanti...
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semanti...