Eric Hillebrand
@erichillebrand.bsky.social
Climate econometrics, statistical climate models, emissions and the macroeconomy, professor at Aarhus University's Economics Department, co-organizer of EMCC (tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb), sites.google.com/site/erichillebrand/
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
New paper out in @egu.eu's Climate of the Past together with economists (@mbennedsen.bsky.social @erichillebrand.bsky.social) to apply their rate prediction tools to the Cenozoic stack for detecting the timing and duration of breakpoints. Really fun. @au.dk
cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/...
cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/...
Estimating breakpoints in the Cenozoic Era: an econometric approach
Abstract. This study presents a statistical time-domain approach for identifying transitions between climate states, referred to as breakpoints, using well-established econometric tools. Our approach ...
cp.copernicus.org
November 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM
New paper out in @egu.eu's Climate of the Past together with economists (@mbennedsen.bsky.social @erichillebrand.bsky.social) to apply their rate prediction tools to the Cenozoic stack for detecting the timing and duration of breakpoints. Really fun. @au.dk
cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/...
cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/...
New paper out:
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
with Mikkel Bennedsen @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
with Mikkel Bennedsen @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman
journals.ametsoc.org
October 24, 2025 at 7:54 AM
New paper out:
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
with Mikkel Bennedsen @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
with Mikkel Bennedsen @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman
We celebrated Carter Hill's birthday yesterday with the presentation of an edited volume in his honor: "Teaching Econometrics - A Tribute to R. Carter Hill".
link.springer.com/book/9783031...
It is scheduled to be released in December 2025 by Springer.
link.springer.com/book/9783031...
It is scheduled to be released in December 2025 by Springer.
Teaching Econometrics
This book collects advances and reflections on the teaching of econometrics from internationally well-known econometricians
link.springer.com
October 2, 2025 at 10:36 AM
We celebrated Carter Hill's birthday yesterday with the presentation of an edited volume in his honor: "Teaching Econometrics - A Tribute to R. Carter Hill".
link.springer.com/book/9783031...
It is scheduled to be released in December 2025 by Springer.
link.springer.com/book/9783031...
It is scheduled to be released in December 2025 by Springer.
Forskerforum has written a piece about my unfortunate experience with the Danish Office for Naturalization (in Danish)
dm.dk/forskerforum...
dm.dk/forskerforum...
For international til at blive dansker
AU-professor Eric Hillebrand troede, at det efter 13 år i Danmark som fastansat forsker ville være en formssag at få statsborgerskab. Men nej – han rejser for meget.
dm.dk
September 26, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Forskerforum has written a piece about my unfortunate experience with the Danish Office for Naturalization (in Danish)
dm.dk/forskerforum...
dm.dk/forskerforum...
Special Issue – The Econometrics Journal
Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition
Submission deadline: Feb 28, 2026
Call for papers:
sites.google.com/view/emcccon...
Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition
Submission deadline: Feb 28, 2026
Call for papers:
sites.google.com/view/emcccon...
EMCC - Call for papers - The Econometrics Journal
The Econometrics Journal and EMCC call for papers for a new special issue on
Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition
with a submission deadline of
February 28, 2026.
We welcom...
sites.google.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Special Issue – The Econometrics Journal
Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition
Submission deadline: Feb 28, 2026
Call for papers:
sites.google.com/view/emcccon...
Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition
Submission deadline: Feb 28, 2026
Call for papers:
sites.google.com/view/emcccon...
Econometric Models of Climate Change, 9th annual conference at the University of Victoria, Canada, Aug 27-28, 2025
Call for papers: tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic
Call for papers: tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic
9th Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) – Felix Pretis
tinyurl.com
January 31, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Econometric Models of Climate Change, 9th annual conference at the University of Victoria, Canada, Aug 27-28, 2025
Call for papers: tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic
Call for papers: tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic
New work on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2412.09226
The Global Carbon Budget data is a textbook example of cointegration.
The Global Carbon Budget data is a textbook example of cointegration.
The Global Carbon Budget as a cointegrated system
The Global Carbon Budget, maintained by the Global Carbon Project, summarizes Earth's global carbon cycle through four annual time series beginning in 1959: atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations, anthropo...
arxiv.org
December 16, 2024 at 12:58 PM
New work on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2412.09226
The Global Carbon Budget data is a textbook example of cointegration.
The Global Carbon Budget data is a textbook example of cointegration.
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Earlier this year, I received news that fake peer reviews were allegedly being submitted impersonating me and approximately six others
I shared my story with Science to, hopefully, reduce the chance of this kind of breach happening again
www.science.org/content/arti...
I shared my story with Science to, hopefully, reduce the chance of this kind of breach happening again
www.science.org/content/arti...
‘It felt very icky’: This scientist’s name was used to write fake peer reviews
Elsevier retracts dozens of journal articles that were published based on “fictitious” reviews
www.science.org
December 3, 2024 at 9:24 AM
Earlier this year, I received news that fake peer reviews were allegedly being submitted impersonating me and approximately six others
I shared my story with Science to, hopefully, reduce the chance of this kind of breach happening again
www.science.org/content/arti...
I shared my story with Science to, hopefully, reduce the chance of this kind of breach happening again
www.science.org/content/arti...
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
The global carbon budget 2024 is out
November 13, 2024 at 7:03 AM
The global carbon budget 2024 is out
New work in Nature Communications about the CO2 airborne fraction, the part of emissions that remains in the atmosphere
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction - Nature Communications
A presented regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction is statistically superior to the conventional ratio-based approach. It reduces estimation uncertainty, requires fewer assumptions, an...
www.nature.com
October 3, 2024 at 6:59 AM
New work in Nature Communications about the CO2 airborne fraction, the part of emissions that remains in the atmosphere
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The new Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets - CoRE is a public-private research center jointly initiated by Aarhus BSS - @aarhusuni.bsky.social and InCommodities. We had this video made professionally to summarize what we're about. Check it out.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFI...
CoRE Research
Video produced by Gotfat Productions
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2024 at 3:19 PM
The new Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets - CoRE is a public-private research center jointly initiated by Aarhus BSS - @aarhusuni.bsky.social and InCommodities. We had this video made professionally to summarize what we're about. Check it out.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFI...
8th annual conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-VIII):
Deadline for extended abstracts/papers: May 15
University of Cambridge, King's College, Aug 16 & 17
tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Deadline for extended abstracts/papers: May 15
University of Cambridge, King's College, Aug 16 & 17
tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
EMCC
News:
EMCC-VIII Call for papers, deadline for submitting papers and extended abstracts is May 15, submission link
EMCC-VIII in 2024 will take place on Aug 16 and 17 at the University of Cambridge, Kin...
tinyurl.com
May 3, 2024 at 8:33 PM
8th annual conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-VIII):
Deadline for extended abstracts/papers: May 15
University of Cambridge, King's College, Aug 16 & 17
tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Deadline for extended abstracts/papers: May 15
University of Cambridge, King's College, Aug 16 & 17
tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Fingers crossed for AU’s team at the #EconometricGame 2024, with a case on Estimating Causal Effects of Educational Policies!
April 17, 2024 at 8:33 AM
Fingers crossed for AU’s team at the #EconometricGame 2024, with a case on Estimating Causal Effects of Educational Policies!
New work on time series analysis of paleoclimate proxies. Incredibly cool time series, about 23,000 irregularly spaced observations covering 67 million years
Continuous-time state-space methods for delta-O-18 and delta-C-13
Time series analysis of delta-O-18 and delta-C-13 measurements from benthic foraminifera for purposes of paleoclimatology is challenging. The time series reach back tens of millions of years, they...
arxiv.org
April 11, 2024 at 6:48 PM
New work on time series analysis of paleoclimate proxies. Incredibly cool time series, about 23,000 irregularly spaced observations covering 67 million years
Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) - 8th annual conference takes place Aug 16 and 17 at King's College, University of Cambridge.
Call for papers and extended abstracts and link for submissions at tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Deadline May 15. Mark your calendars, and see you in Cambridge in August
Call for papers and extended abstracts and link for submissions at tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Deadline May 15. Mark your calendars, and see you in Cambridge in August
February 29, 2024 at 4:36 PM
Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) - 8th annual conference takes place Aug 16 and 17 at King's College, University of Cambridge.
Call for papers and extended abstracts and link for submissions at tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Deadline May 15. Mark your calendars, and see you in Cambridge in August
Call for papers and extended abstracts and link for submissions at tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb
Deadline May 15. Mark your calendars, and see you in Cambridge in August
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Global Carbon Budget 2023
Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023.
Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows!
essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
1/
Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023.
Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows!
essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
1/
December 5, 2023 at 7:20 AM
Global Carbon Budget 2023
Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023.
Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows!
essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
1/
Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023.
Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows!
essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
1/
"Prediction based upon a hypothesis, or model, is the ideal, but it should be noted that prediction can be based upon *recognition* of a regularity as well as upon *explanation* of a regularity." Peter Whittle, 1963
DeepMind AI accurately forecasts weather — on a desktop computer
The machine-learning model takes less than a minute to predict future weather worldwide more precisely than other approaches. The machine-learning model takes less than a minute to predict future weat...
www.nature.com
November 24, 2023 at 4:51 PM
"Prediction based upon a hypothesis, or model, is the ideal, but it should be noted that prediction can be based upon *recognition* of a regularity as well as upon *explanation* of a regularity." Peter Whittle, 1963
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
Is the Earth's Energy Imbalance of the scales?
Does it mean 1.5°C is inevitable, or is it our actions that make 1.5°C inevitable?
I scribbled down some thoughts: glenpeters.substack.com/p/understand...
Does it mean 1.5°C is inevitable, or is it our actions that make 1.5°C inevitable?
I scribbled down some thoughts: glenpeters.substack.com/p/understand...
November 23, 2023 at 12:22 PM
Is the Earth's Energy Imbalance of the scales?
Does it mean 1.5°C is inevitable, or is it our actions that make 1.5°C inevitable?
I scribbled down some thoughts: glenpeters.substack.com/p/understand...
Does it mean 1.5°C is inevitable, or is it our actions that make 1.5°C inevitable?
I scribbled down some thoughts: glenpeters.substack.com/p/understand...
A question for the hive mind that is driving me crazy: I vaguely remember a quote (was it by Kahane?) that mathematical models are devices to organize thinking and help asking the right, sharp questions (as opposed to accurate descriptions of reality). Anybody knows the quote?
November 14, 2023 at 8:37 AM
A question for the hive mind that is driving me crazy: I vaguely remember a quote (was it by Kahane?) that mathematical models are devices to organize thinking and help asking the right, sharp questions (as opposed to accurate descriptions of reality). Anybody knows the quote?
Reposted by Eric Hillebrand
I fear this might not be the most exciting account... so watch this. I still laughed even when we did the 30th take. youtu.be/CnITUQVEqLQ?...
November 11, 2023 at 8:28 AM
I fear this might not be the most exciting account... so watch this. I still laughed even when we did the 30th take. youtu.be/CnITUQVEqLQ?...
Ten years ago, I published my first paper on statistical approaches in climate research, coming from economics and mathematics. It's been quite a journey since then, and I'm glad I made the decision to put my main focus on this
Redirecting
doi.org
November 8, 2023 at 9:53 AM
Ten years ago, I published my first paper on statistical approaches in climate research, coming from economics and mathematics. It's been quite a journey since then, and I'm glad I made the decision to put my main focus on this
New working paper on arXiv: The airborne fraction of CO2 is commonly estimated in a way that makes an econometrician scratch their head and think “But why not the other way?” So we dug into it.
arxiv.org/abs/2311.01053
arxiv.org/abs/2311.01053
November 3, 2023 at 8:31 AM
New working paper on arXiv: The airborne fraction of CO2 is commonly estimated in a way that makes an econometrician scratch their head and think “But why not the other way?” So we dug into it.
arxiv.org/abs/2311.01053
arxiv.org/abs/2311.01053