Emadeddin Badi
@emadbadi.bsky.social
Eyes on #Libya, MENA geopolitics & security.
A thread unpacking recent #RSF weapons-supply dynamics in Sudan, & how a set of external shocks is now reshaping how the #UAE moves materiel to Hemedti's forces - from the Turko-Egyptian rapprochement and the Red Sea fallout to the evolving Saudi-Emirati rivalry.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20108...
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20108...
Thread by @emad_badi on Thread Reader App
@emad_badi: A brief tactical-geopolitical update on the evolving regional dynamics affecting RSF supply lines since this paper came out. Whereas RSF supply lines were primarily shaped by endogenous de...
threadreaderapp.com
January 13, 2026 at 6:29 PM
A thread unpacking recent #RSF weapons-supply dynamics in Sudan, & how a set of external shocks is now reshaping how the #UAE moves materiel to Hemedti's forces - from the Turko-Egyptian rapprochement and the Red Sea fallout to the evolving Saudi-Emirati rivalry.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20108...
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20108...
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
#Libya #Chad #Sudan
@emadbadi.bsky.social
'In weakly governed borderlands, the market for #mercenary labour and the market for #weapons interact to entrench a regionalized economy of insecurity.. networks in which weapons, fighters, fuel and [ICT] move together'
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
@emadbadi.bsky.social
'In weakly governed borderlands, the market for #mercenary labour and the market for #weapons interact to entrench a regionalized economy of insecurity.. networks in which weapons, fighters, fuel and [ICT] move together'
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya
The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...
globalinitiative.net
December 4, 2025 at 9:40 AM
#Libya #Chad #Sudan
@emadbadi.bsky.social
'In weakly governed borderlands, the market for #mercenary labour and the market for #weapons interact to entrench a regionalized economy of insecurity.. networks in which weapons, fighters, fuel and [ICT] move together'
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
@emadbadi.bsky.social
'In weakly governed borderlands, the market for #mercenary labour and the market for #weapons interact to entrench a regionalized economy of insecurity.. networks in which weapons, fighters, fuel and [ICT] move together'
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya
The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...
globalinitiative.net
December 1, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests.
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
How did the UAE supply the RSF & sustain its war effort in Sudan for 2+ years? What dictated the reliance on Amdjarass, Kufra or other nodes?
More broadly, how did Sudan's war affect arms trafficking & mercenary networks in Chad & Libya?
My in-depth report:
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
More broadly, how did Sudan's war affect arms trafficking & mercenary networks in Chad & Libya?
My in-depth report:
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya
The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...
globalinitiative.net
December 1, 2025 at 4:58 PM
How did the UAE supply the RSF & sustain its war effort in Sudan for 2+ years? What dictated the reliance on Amdjarass, Kufra or other nodes?
More broadly, how did Sudan's war affect arms trafficking & mercenary networks in Chad & Libya?
My in-depth report:
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
More broadly, how did Sudan's war affect arms trafficking & mercenary networks in Chad & Libya?
My in-depth report:
globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Huge kudos to @data.ft.com for putting together this forensic mapping of the utter vileness of the Israel-US "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation"
Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ www.ft.com/content/6c74... via @data.ft.com
Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ www.ft.com/content/6c74... via @data.ft.com
Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’
A US-backed scheme forces hungry Palestinians to trek kilometres for food aid. Many never make it back
www.ft.com
July 15, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Huge kudos to @data.ft.com for putting together this forensic mapping of the utter vileness of the Israel-US "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation"
Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ www.ft.com/content/6c74... via @data.ft.com
Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ www.ft.com/content/6c74... via @data.ft.com
My latest, with a view from the ground in #Tripoli: Ankara’s quiet intervention to rein in the GNU reveals a deeper shift - from assertive influence to cautious containment - as #Turkey recalibrates its role in an increasingly unstable capital.
Still in the Game: Ankara’s Quiet Pivot in Libya - A View from Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi
Tripoli, the evening of June 4, 2025. Around sundown, I stood on the corniche of Treeg al-Shat near the Waddan Hotel, watching as a convoy of armored pickups moved hastily toward the Radisson Blu “al-...
emadbadi.com
June 11, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
A failed power grab has eroded trust and deepened rivalries, leaving Tripoli in a state of suspended conflict primed for renewed violence, write @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social for @newlinesmag.bsky.social
A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli
Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong
newlinesmag.com
May 29, 2025 at 9:00 PM
A failed power grab has eroded trust and deepened rivalries, leaving Tripoli in a state of suspended conflict primed for renewed violence, write @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social for @newlinesmag.bsky.social
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
'With trust eroded and rivalries deepened, #Tripoli is in a state of suspended conflict, primed for renewed violence.' @emadbadi.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social @newlinesmag.bsky.social #Libya
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli
Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong
newlinesmag.com
May 29, 2025 at 10:59 AM
'With trust eroded and rivalries deepened, #Tripoli is in a state of suspended conflict, primed for renewed violence.' @emadbadi.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social @newlinesmag.bsky.social #Libya
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Excellent, must-read analysis of unfolding events in Libya by @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social 👇
After a gambit by #Libya's Dabeiba to consolidate control in #Tripoli backfired, the capital has entered a state of suspended conflict - a tenuous standoff unlikely to hold.
In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.
In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.
A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli
Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong
newlinesmag.com
May 29, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Excellent, must-read analysis of unfolding events in Libya by @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social 👇
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Excellent review and analysis of the recent fighting and shifting power dynamics in #Tripoli #Libya
@wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social
@wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social
New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate.
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli
Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong
newlinesmag.com
May 28, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Excellent review and analysis of the recent fighting and shifting power dynamics in #Tripoli #Libya
@wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social
@wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate.
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli
Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong
newlinesmag.com
May 28, 2025 at 11:52 AM
New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate.
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...
After a gambit by #Libya's Dabeiba to consolidate control in #Tripoli backfired, the capital has entered a state of suspended conflict - a tenuous standoff unlikely to hold.
In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.
In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.
A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli
Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong
newlinesmag.com
May 28, 2025 at 12:05 PM
After a gambit by #Libya's Dabeiba to consolidate control in #Tripoli backfired, the capital has entered a state of suspended conflict - a tenuous standoff unlikely to hold.
In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.
In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Haaretz’s Yaniv Kubovich reports that Israel plans to seize 75% of Gaza and relocate more than 1,3 million Palestinians in the upcoming offensive, ultimately forcing the entire population into three military zones with food supplies strictly controlled by GHF/Israel. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
May 26, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Haaretz’s Yaniv Kubovich reports that Israel plans to seize 75% of Gaza and relocate more than 1,3 million Palestinians in the upcoming offensive, ultimately forcing the entire population into three military zones with food supplies strictly controlled by GHF/Israel. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Literally every experienced humanitarian or medical professional coming out of Gaza says:
„this is the worst I have seen, anywhere, anytime“
„this is the worst I have seen, anywhere, anytime“
“It’s the worst I’ve ever seen it in Gaza.”
British surgeon Dr Victoria Rose tells @vicderbyshire.bsky.social about the current situation at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza, adding: “there are more patients coming through the door than I have ever witnessed before.”
#Newsnight
British surgeon Dr Victoria Rose tells @vicderbyshire.bsky.social about the current situation at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza, adding: “there are more patients coming through the door than I have ever witnessed before.”
#Newsnight
May 22, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Literally every experienced humanitarian or medical professional coming out of Gaza says:
„this is the worst I have seen, anywhere, anytime“
„this is the worst I have seen, anywhere, anytime“
My latest for @mecouncil.bsky.social unpacks how a bid to rein in militias in #Tripoli unraveled into a war of militias, & what is now at stake.
International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.
International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.
In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias
A recent upsurge in violence in the Libyan capital portends a familiar and dangerous path for the war-torn country, and the urgent need for a political reset.
mecouncil.org
May 21, 2025 at 3:25 PM
My latest for @mecouncil.bsky.social unpacks how a bid to rein in militias in #Tripoli unraveled into a war of militias, & what is now at stake.
International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.
International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Granular analysis of events unfolding in Tripoli, Libya.
recommend reading ⬇️
recommend reading ⬇️
For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics.
It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi
Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...
emadbadi.com
May 15, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Granular analysis of events unfolding in Tripoli, Libya.
recommend reading ⬇️
recommend reading ⬇️
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Precious analysis of events in Tripoli over the past 24 hours, by @emadbadi.bsky.social
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi
Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...
emadbadi.com
May 14, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Precious analysis of events in Tripoli over the past 24 hours, by @emadbadi.bsky.social
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics.
It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi
Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...
emadbadi.com
May 14, 2025 at 1:48 PM
For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics.
It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires.
emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...
Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare.
The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.
The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.
May 14, 2025 at 6:31 AM
Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare.
The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.
The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
For an excellent analysis of Ghnewa's rise, see this @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social paper written under a pseudonym by
@emadbadi.bsky.social - Emad outed himself as the author last night.
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/pol...
@emadbadi.bsky.social - Emad outed himself as the author last night.
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/pol...
A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon
Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated ...
www.smallarmssurvey.org
May 13, 2025 at 6:34 AM
For an excellent analysis of Ghnewa's rise, see this @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social paper written under a pseudonym by
@emadbadi.bsky.social - Emad outed himself as the author last night.
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/pol...
@emadbadi.bsky.social - Emad outed himself as the author last night.
www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/pol...
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
And you know who is in no position to comment on these plans? The EU and its member states, who have been seeking to trap migrants in Libya for the past eight years.
If the first deportation flight to Libya does leave today, we will find out which of the two rival ruling families the Trump administration has reached a deal with. It's most likely the Haftars, believing they can handle the negative public reaction this will trigger.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/u...
Trump Administration Plans to Send Migrants to Libya on a Military Flight
www.nytimes.com
May 7, 2025 at 5:09 AM
And you know who is in no position to comment on these plans? The EU and its member states, who have been seeking to trap migrants in Libya for the past eight years.
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Heartbroken at the passing of Pope Francis, a man who may not have been perfect but who consistently used his immense platform and his influence not only to say what was right in the face of political power, but also to model the behavior that brought those words to life. (1)
April 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Heartbroken at the passing of Pope Francis, a man who may not have been perfect but who consistently used his immense platform and his influence not only to say what was right in the face of political power, but also to model the behavior that brought those words to life. (1)
Reposted by Emadeddin Badi
Excellent recap of the recent crisis in the Libyan economy
short, concise, and well done. Please give it a read
short, concise, and well done. Please give it a read
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.
Solving Libya’s economic collapse will require confrontation—not consensus
If the status quo continues, the next phase of Libya’s crisis will not be quiet erosion. It will be public revolt.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
April 16, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Excellent recap of the recent crisis in the Libyan economy
short, concise, and well done. Please give it a read
short, concise, and well done. Please give it a read
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.
Solving Libya’s economic collapse will require confrontation—not consensus
If the status quo continues, the next phase of Libya’s crisis will not be quiet erosion. It will be public revolt.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
April 16, 2025 at 11:48 AM
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.
In one world, Libya's Central Bank begs for help - calling out graft, diverted oil revenues, and wild spending that's sinking Libya; all while passing policy that makes ordinary people foot the bill.
In another world, Libya is “stable” and “open for business.”
Only one of these worlds is real.
In another world, Libya is “stable” and “open for business.”
Only one of these worlds is real.
April 6, 2025 at 1:33 PM
In one world, Libya's Central Bank begs for help - calling out graft, diverted oil revenues, and wild spending that's sinking Libya; all while passing policy that makes ordinary people foot the bill.
In another world, Libya is “stable” and “open for business.”
Only one of these worlds is real.
In another world, Libya is “stable” and “open for business.”
Only one of these worlds is real.