Elisabeth Braw
@elisabethbraw.bsky.social
Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, Politico Europe. Author of The Defender's Dilemma (2022), Goodbye Globalization (2024) and Undersea War (2026). Geopolitics & globalisation/greyzone aggression/total defence/societal resilience. Own views
Another cable break, this time in Latvian waters.
Let's await the findings from the investigation.
In the meantime, here's a picture of the Newnew Polar Bear, whose master is on trial over the Balticconnector incident.
Let's await the findings from the investigation.
In the meantime, here's a picture of the Newnew Polar Bear, whose master is on trial over the Balticconnector incident.
January 5, 2026 at 9:18 AM
Another cable break, this time in Latvian waters.
Let's await the findings from the investigation.
In the meantime, here's a picture of the Newnew Polar Bear, whose master is on trial over the Balticconnector incident.
Let's await the findings from the investigation.
In the meantime, here's a picture of the Newnew Polar Bear, whose master is on trial over the Balticconnector incident.
On the last day of the year, another cable damaged in the Gulf of Finland.
The Finnish Border Guard reports that a ship has been taken into custody.
The incident is not good news. The Finnish response is.
We've not seen the last of these suspicious cable cuts.
The Finnish Border Guard reports that a ship has been taken into custody.
The incident is not good news. The Finnish response is.
We've not seen the last of these suspicious cable cuts.
December 31, 2025 at 11:56 AM
On the last day of the year, another cable damaged in the Gulf of Finland.
The Finnish Border Guard reports that a ship has been taken into custody.
The incident is not good news. The Finnish response is.
We've not seen the last of these suspicious cable cuts.
The Finnish Border Guard reports that a ship has been taken into custody.
The incident is not good news. The Finnish response is.
We've not seen the last of these suspicious cable cuts.
Your country needs YOU to invent new forms of defence.
CDS Sir Richard Knighton has called for an 'all-in mentality' to protect the UK.
Hear, hear. And teenagers, pensioners and others may have useful ideas no one has yet thought of.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
(Me @thetimes.com)
CDS Sir Richard Knighton has called for an 'all-in mentality' to protect the UK.
Hear, hear. And teenagers, pensioners and others may have useful ideas no one has yet thought of.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
(Me @thetimes.com)
December 30, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Your country needs YOU to invent new forms of defence.
CDS Sir Richard Knighton has called for an 'all-in mentality' to protect the UK.
Hear, hear. And teenagers, pensioners and others may have useful ideas no one has yet thought of.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
(Me @thetimes.com)
CDS Sir Richard Knighton has called for an 'all-in mentality' to protect the UK.
Hear, hear. And teenagers, pensioners and others may have useful ideas no one has yet thought of.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
(Me @thetimes.com)
A few weeks ago, a stranger turned up and started photographing sensitive Swedish telecoms masts.
But - the employees were alert, and the man was arrested.
A lesson for other companies, because attacks against our companies will continue, I write in @politico.eu. No paywall.
But - the employees were alert, and the man was arrested.
A lesson for other companies, because attacks against our companies will continue, I write in @politico.eu. No paywall.
COMMENTARY: In these geopolitically turbulent times, we can’t know exactly what kind of subversive activities will be directed against our societies.
But companies can teach their employees what to look for, because spotting incidents is everyone’s responsibility.
But companies can teach their employees what to look for, because spotting incidents is everyone’s responsibility.
Companies should do right by their home countries — and stay alert
When crises approach, we all have a part to play — and businesses need to step up to the plate.
www.politico.eu
December 26, 2025 at 10:33 AM
A few weeks ago, a stranger turned up and started photographing sensitive Swedish telecoms masts.
But - the employees were alert, and the man was arrested.
A lesson for other companies, because attacks against our companies will continue, I write in @politico.eu. No paywall.
But - the employees were alert, and the man was arrested.
A lesson for other companies, because attacks against our companies will continue, I write in @politico.eu. No paywall.
What were the geopolitical words we learnt (or re-learnt) this year? I got to decide for @foreignpolicy.com.
The winners include...narco-terrrorism, drone wall, persistent objector.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/23/n... (Gift link)
The winners include...narco-terrrorism, drone wall, persistent objector.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/23/n... (Gift link)
New Geopolitical Words We Learned in 2025
When it’s TACO time, no one wants to be a persistent objector.
foreignpolicy.com
December 24, 2025 at 8:47 AM
What were the geopolitical words we learnt (or re-learnt) this year? I got to decide for @foreignpolicy.com.
The winners include...narco-terrrorism, drone wall, persistent objector.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/23/n... (Gift link)
The winners include...narco-terrrorism, drone wall, persistent objector.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/23/n... (Gift link)
Sir Richard Knighton, the UK Chief of the Defence Staff, is calling for a whole-of-society effort to deter new threats.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Good.
In the past, when I (and others) made similar pleas, the reaction was typically that it wouldn't work in the UK. But now it's urgent.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Good.
In the past, when I (and others) made similar pleas, the reaction was typically that it wouldn't work in the UK. But now it's urgent.
'Whole of society' effort needed to fight Russia threat, armed forces chief says
Sir Richard Knighton says more families will know what
www.bbc.co.uk
December 16, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Sir Richard Knighton, the UK Chief of the Defence Staff, is calling for a whole-of-society effort to deter new threats.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Good.
In the past, when I (and others) made similar pleas, the reaction was typically that it wouldn't work in the UK. But now it's urgent.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Good.
In the past, when I (and others) made similar pleas, the reaction was typically that it wouldn't work in the UK. But now it's urgent.
Phenomenal work by these German journalism students.
Including the figures they've obtained:
'1,072 incidents involving 1,955 drones in 2025 alone (as of November 19). Forty-five percent occurred in evening hours. Drone swarms flew “almost exclusively over or near military installations".'
Including the figures they've obtained:
'1,072 incidents involving 1,955 drones in 2025 alone (as of November 19). Forty-five percent occurred in evening hours. Drone swarms flew “almost exclusively over or near military installations".'
Extensive and detailed investigation about russian drone intrusion into Germany and Netherlands. The full scope might supprise you, including civilian lead counter drone operation
www.digitaldigging.org/p/they-drone...
www.digitaldigging.org/p/they-drone...
December 12, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Phenomenal work by these German journalism students.
Including the figures they've obtained:
'1,072 incidents involving 1,955 drones in 2025 alone (as of November 19). Forty-five percent occurred in evening hours. Drone swarms flew “almost exclusively over or near military installations".'
Including the figures they've obtained:
'1,072 incidents involving 1,955 drones in 2025 alone (as of November 19). Forty-five percent occurred in evening hours. Drone swarms flew “almost exclusively over or near military installations".'
Now Ukraine has struck another Russian shadow vessel.
It's demonstrating it can slash Russia's main source of revenue - and is willing to do so.
It's demonstrating it can slash Russia's main source of revenue - and is willing to do so.
Attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet have strengthened Kyiv’s hand—but rattling the Kremlin is risky, writes @elisabethbraw.bsky.social.
Ukraine’s Black Sea gamble
Attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet have strengthened Kyiv’s hand—but rattling the Kremlin is risky
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Now Ukraine has struck another Russian shadow vessel.
It's demonstrating it can slash Russia's main source of revenue - and is willing to do so.
It's demonstrating it can slash Russia's main source of revenue - and is willing to do so.
Now one of the Russian shadow vessels struck by Ukraine a few days ago has run aground.
Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.
Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.
Ukraine clearly feels it can’t afford to observe such niceties as the laws of the sea anymore. And Putin seems rattled, writes @elisabethbraw.bsky.social.
Ukraine’s Black Sea gamble
Attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet have strengthened Kyiv’s hand—but rattling the Kremlin is risky
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 7, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Now one of the Russian shadow vessels struck by Ukraine a few days ago has run aground.
Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.
Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.
Norway has a wonderful new(-ish) initiative: preparedness friends.
Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.
Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)
Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.
Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)
December 5, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Norway has a wonderful new(-ish) initiative: preparedness friends.
Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.
Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)
Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.
Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)
Ukrainian negotiators are meeting with Steve Witkoff in Florida today.
And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.
Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...
(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)
And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.
Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...
(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)
December 4, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Ukrainian negotiators are meeting with Steve Witkoff in Florida today.
And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.
Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...
(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)
And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.
Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...
(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)
A sensible step if we are to protect our supply chains against disruption.
Brussels is considering setting “made in Europe” targets of up to 70% for the content of certain products such as cars, as it pushes to prioritise domestic goods and cut reliance on China. Draft law due Dec 10
Brussels pushes for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’
Policy would force EU companies to buy certain products domestically in an effort to cut reliance on China
www.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:23 AM
A sensible step if we are to protect our supply chains against disruption.
As the Ukraine peace negotiations continue, the reality for the shadow fleet has changed dramatically.
Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.
Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.
Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.
Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.
December 1, 2025 at 8:13 AM
As the Ukraine peace negotiations continue, the reality for the shadow fleet has changed dramatically.
Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.
Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.
Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.
Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.
We can't know why the mysterious cable incidents have stopped - or indeed whether they will resume.
But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.
But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.
@sarahkirchberger.bsky.social or @elisabethbraw.bsky.social may have a better view of whether this hearty confidence is justified.
December 1, 2025 at 7:40 AM
We can't know why the mysterious cable incidents have stopped - or indeed whether they will resume.
But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.
But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.
Two Russian shadow vessels (and today reportedly another one) struck by Ukraine:
A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
November 30, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Two Russian shadow vessels (and today reportedly another one) struck by Ukraine:
A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Regarding France's new conscription (www.bbc.com/news/article...):
I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).
I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).
France brings back limited military service with 3,000 volunteers next year
"The only way to avoid danger is to prepare for it," says President Emmanuel Macron.
www.bbc.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Regarding France's new conscription (www.bbc.com/news/article...):
I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).
I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).
First there was a sudden string of mysterious cable & pipeline incidents in the Baltic Sea.
Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.
The incidents have stopped (for now).
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.
Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.
The incidents have stopped (for now).
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.
How the Baltic Sea nations have tackled suspicious cable cuts
Two places in the world's oceans see a lot of suspicious maritime behavior: the Baltic Sea, and the waters around Taiwan. Elisabeth Braw reports from the NATO task force charged with protecting the un...
www.atlanticcouncil.org
November 27, 2025 at 1:59 PM
First there was a sudden string of mysterious cable & pipeline incidents in the Baltic Sea.
Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.
The incidents have stopped (for now).
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.
Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.
The incidents have stopped (for now).
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.
Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately.
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
November 26, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately.
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
Most shadow vessels are very old, which makes death (ie scrapping) imminent.
In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.
www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.
www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
The emergence of the shadow shipbreaking market
The shadow fleet now has its own system for scrapping ships, and it’s even riskier than the official one.
www.politico.eu
November 26, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Most shadow vessels are very old, which makes death (ie scrapping) imminent.
In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.
www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.
www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
The Yantar directing lasers at UK pilots:
It's certainly like a deliberate provocation in waters that have numerous undersea installations.
The point of the provocation: well, there are several possibilities.
www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
It's certainly like a deliberate provocation in waters that have numerous undersea installations.
The point of the provocation: well, there are several possibilities.
www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
Russian spy ship aims lasers at RAF pilots tracking it near UK waters
We see you, John Healey tells Putin, as he calls for a new era of ‘hard power’ after surveillance vessel is spotted loitering off Scotland
www.thetimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:22 PM
The Yantar directing lasers at UK pilots:
It's certainly like a deliberate provocation in waters that have numerous undersea installations.
The point of the provocation: well, there are several possibilities.
www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
It's certainly like a deliberate provocation in waters that have numerous undersea installations.
The point of the provocation: well, there are several possibilities.
www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
She's back (very) near UK waters, the research vessel Yantar.
And not just that, Defence Secretary John Healey says she has 'directed lasers at our pilots'.
Research, provocation or both?
news.sky.com/story/russia...
And not just that, Defence Secretary John Healey says she has 'directed lasers at our pilots'.
Research, provocation or both?
news.sky.com/story/russia...
November 19, 2025 at 10:59 AM
She's back (very) near UK waters, the research vessel Yantar.
And not just that, Defence Secretary John Healey says she has 'directed lasers at our pilots'.
Research, provocation or both?
news.sky.com/story/russia...
And not just that, Defence Secretary John Healey says she has 'directed lasers at our pilots'.
Research, provocation or both?
news.sky.com/story/russia...
Thank you
A very important piece from @elisabethbraw.bsky.social on the toll Russian grey zone ops are taking on our societies and what to do about it. I recommend it to everyone (no paywall):
Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.
One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.
Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.
www.politico.eu/article/russ...
Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.
Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.
www.politico.eu/article/russ...
Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
November 5, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Thank you
Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.
One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.
Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.
www.politico.eu/article/russ...
Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.
Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.
www.politico.eu/article/russ...
Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
November 5, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.
One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.
Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.
www.politico.eu/article/russ...
Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.
Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.
www.politico.eu/article/russ...
Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
Your friendly reminder that this week is Norway's Self Preparedness Week.
A week-long reminder (with instructions) of how everyone can contribute to national resilience.
This is how to do it.
A week-long reminder (with instructions) of how everyone can contribute to national resilience.
This is how to do it.
October 29, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Your friendly reminder that this week is Norway's Self Preparedness Week.
A week-long reminder (with instructions) of how everyone can contribute to national resilience.
This is how to do it.
A week-long reminder (with instructions) of how everyone can contribute to national resilience.
This is how to do it.