Dionis Cenusa
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dioniscenusa.bsky.social
Dionis Cenusa
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
440 followers 10 following 260 posts
Risk Analyst, Assoc. Expert: @EESC_LT; @Expert_Grup; ex-@CEPS_thinktank; FP/Risk&Crisis/security/sanctions/energy/CIP/EU-Eurasia-Russia-China-GlobalSouth
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dioniscenusa.bsky.social
Dionis Cenusa @dioniscenusa.bsky.social · Jun 17
My new paper: “The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’”.

An earlier version of this paper was funded by SONAC, with UK Ministry of Defence. For @gssc-lt.bsky.social

www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...
The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’ | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known a...
www.gssc.lt
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
matisaksk.bsky.social
Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps?, @dioniscenusa.bsky.social writes.
ridl.io/moldova-s-pr... #Moldova #Russia #EU
Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenușă on What a More Empowered Opposition in Parliament Means for Moldova’s Pro-EU Movement
ridl.io
October 5, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
abarbashin.bsky.social
After the parliamentary elections in #Moldova, the key focus for pro-EU forces should be providing economic growth - otherwise Euroscepticism fueled by Russia will weaken Moldova's European future
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/moldova-s-pr...
Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenușă on What a More Empowered Opposition in Parliament Means for Moldova’s Pro-EU Movement
ridl.io
October 3, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
cepa.org
Why Moldova Matters | "For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like. That signals its importance." @dioniscenusa.bsky.social
Why Moldova Matters
For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like.
cepa.org
October 2, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
matisaksk.bsky.social
If you, inexplicably :-), missed the most recent episode of my 🎙️ #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, here it is:
▶️ Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Moldova #EU #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? by The Global Agora
Is it accurate to describe the upcoming elections in Moldova, scheduled for September 28, as a duel between the pro-EU and pro-Russian camps? Has Russia been at least partly successful in influencing ...
podcasters.spotify.com
September 27, 2025 at 8:27 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
My latest piece: “Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the EU, a “Revenge” for Russia?” For @ispionline.bsky.social www.ispionline.it/en/publicati...
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the EU, a “Revenge” for Russia? | ISPI
With parliamentary elections looming on 28 September, Moldova faces a critical juncture. The outcome could either consolidate its pro-EU trajectory under President Maia Sandu’s party or compel a delic...
www.ispionline.it
September 27, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
matisaksk.bsky.social
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social.
▶️ ko-fi.com/post/Moldova...
If you enjoy what I do, please buy me coffee ☕️. Thank you! #Moldova #Russia #EU #Ukraine #Putinswar
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win?
Andrej Matisak published a post on Ko-fi
ko-fi.com
September 26, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
matisaksk.bsky.social
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social.
▶️ #Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

▶️ #Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/6RVb...

▶️ #Goodpods goodpods.com/podcasts/the... #Moldova #EU #Russia #politics
podcasts.apple.com
September 25, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
matisaksk.bsky.social
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? Listen to another episode of 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora. I talked to @dioniscenusa.bsky.social. podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Moldova #EU #Russia #politics
Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? by The Global Agora
Is it accurate to describe the upcoming elections in Moldova, scheduled for September 28, as a duel between the pro-EU and pro-Russian camps? Has Russia been at least partly successful in influencing ...
podcasters.spotify.com
September 24, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
newunionpost.bsky.social
What does #Cyprus teach the EU about candidate countries with occupied or separatist territories, such as #Ukraine, #Moldova, and #Georgia?
An interview with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, associate expert at the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (GSSC)

newunionpost.eu/2025/09/23/c...
Is Cyprus an example for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia?
Cyprus' lack of territorial integrity has never posed existential threats for the EU as a whole. But with the three candidates, the situation could be different
newunionpost.eu
September 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
My new paper: “The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’”.

An earlier version of this paper was funded by SONAC, with UK Ministry of Defence. For @gssc-lt.bsky.social

www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...
The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’ | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known a...
www.gssc.lt
June 17, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
abarbashin.bsky.social
#romania
Simion’s victory could have positive implications for Russia broader geopolitical calculations in the EU.His success would mark the first instance since Trump’s victory where MAGA propels sovereigntists in electoral processes beyond USA
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-russian-...
The Russian versus MAGA Effect on the Romanian Elections: Which Weighs More? – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on why Simion’s victory could have positive implications for Russia’s broader geopolitical calculations in the EU
ridl.io
May 15, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
gssc-lt.bsky.social
We are pleased to share that the @consilium.europa.eu has included a publication “Rethinking the EU’s Eastern Partnership: Three Ways to Upgrade Amid Geopolitical Competition” written by the GSSC analyst @dioniscenusa.bsky.social in its list of recommended research for April.

Read more:
Think Tank Review - April 2025
EU enlargement and the balance of power in the Council; invest in Europe first; defence expenditure in the context of the EU’s fiscal rules; how the European gas market can wean itself off Russian imp...
www.consilium.europa.eu
May 6, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
ecprtheloop.bsky.social
🧭 #EUEnlargementDilemmas No.12
🪆 Russia is emboldening sovereigntist #populism, spreading #disinformation, and weaponising economic hardship, all of which poses a threat to #EUEnlargement.
🤝 @dioniscenusa.bsky.social suggests countermeasures to protect the EU's resilience.
👇
bit.ly/42Cq4rn
🧭 Russia’s hybrid warfare on EU enlargement
Russia’s hybrid tactics — emboldening sovereigntist populism, spreading disinformation, and weaponising economic hardship — threaten EU enlargement.
bit.ly
April 10, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
abarbashin.bsky.social
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova
March 30, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
abarbashin.bsky.social
In a nutshell: if a far-right guy wins Romania, pro-Russian forces have a much better chance next year in Moldova.
These dynamic is observed with great interest from Moscow
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/romania-s-ra...
Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova
ridl.io
March 27, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
gssc-lt.bsky.social
🌍Regional wake-up call: the EU’s Eastern Partnership is at a crossroads. Our associate expert @dioniscenusa.bsky.social explores how EU, Ukraine, Moldova & others navigate growing geopolitical competition, urging the EU to rethink its Eastern strategy.

Read more ⬇️
#Geopolitics #EU
March 27, 2025 at 11:43 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
My latest article: “Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence” for @RiddleRussia ridl.io/romania-s-ra...
Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence – Riddle Russia
Denis Cenusa on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova
ridl.io
March 27, 2025 at 8:04 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
#Ukraine:

Russia and its main ally in Europe, Hungary, are using two levers to undermine Ukraine's willingness to fight on the battlefield:

1) Moscow is slowing down peace talks, negotiating with the US to reduce aid to Ukraine, and making it more susceptible to concessions;⤵️
March 25, 2025 at 7:49 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
My latest article: "The Yerevan-Baku “peace” deal and the fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia" for @gssc-lt.bsky.social www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...
The Yerevan-Baku “Peace” Deal and the Fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Centre, EESC)
www.gssc.lt
March 18, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Dionis Cenusa
gssc-lt.bsky.social
Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan - What’s Next for the EU Mission?

What are the prospects for a peace agreement? What is the future of the EU’s EUMA mission? @gssc-lt.bsky.social Associate Analyst @dioniscenusa.bsky.social explores these questions and more in the latest bulletin.
The Yerevan-Baku “Peace” Deal and the Fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Centre, EESC)
www.gssc.lt
March 17, 2025 at 12:53 PM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
#Russia_Sanctions: The US is dropping its pursuit of Russian oligarchs as part of its sanctions mechanism against drug cartels and terrorist groups (domestic angle of security): ⤵️
February 7, 2025 at 12:31 PM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
#Azerbaijan: Baku has called for the closure of the Russian House and USAID in Azerbaijan, arguing that it does not need external help. Baku is contesting the external influence.
February 6, 2025 at 1:25 PM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
#Ukraine: The US indicates, through Rubio's comments, the following guiding principles for the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: 1) both sides must make concessions; ⤵️
January 31, 2025 at 10:40 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
#EU_Enlargement: The EU has not applied sanctions to Serbia, but ongoing protests have put pressure on Vučević to resign. In contrast, the nearly two months of protests in another EU candidate country, Georgia, ⤵️
January 29, 2025 at 8:51 AM
dioniscenusa.bsky.social
#EU_Enlargement: There is no interest from the EU in escalating sanctions against the Georgian government: 1) HR/VP Kallas highlighted that sanctions on diplomatic passports are in place, but this measure can be circumvented by the proponents of the government in Tbilisi. ⤵️
January 27, 2025 at 11:53 AM