D. H. Taylor Analysis
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D. H. Taylor Analysis
@dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social
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Economic Indicators & Stock Market Analysis
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PCE Price index will be released Friday for September. Looking beyond, the tariffs will be struck down by the Supreme Court. That will reinvigorate consumer economic activity, while also dropping price pressures.
#EconFin
#Economy
#Stockmarket
December 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social
AI stock valuations are high, but not in 'bubble-concerning' territory. Historically, forward P/E ratios have been higher. Still, AI stocks that offer data services are rich and profits need to materialize.
#StockMarket
#Economy
#Investing
November 25, 2025 at 4:14 PM
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Nvidia stock sold last week despite solid earnings, but that does not indicate a bubble.
NVDA is trading at 29.9x forward, whereas the S&P500 is at 22.36x
Other stocks within the AI trade may be overvalued, and #NVDA stock may not move because of other stocks
#StockMarket
#Trading
#Economy
NVDA stock sold after last week's earnings. Is the AI trade a bubble? Is NVDA stock overvalued? These questions are causing the market to be cautious. Because of that, NVDA stock last week, despite a solid earnings release, sold off. First, the real culprit for selling may have been Federal Reserve members making comments that a rate cut may not be in the cards next month, and from that the broad market sold off. Since then, there’s been another Fed member stating they believe a rate cut is possible in the next meeting… and the market whipsaws back upward. As for NVDA stock, the forward P/E ratio is a mere 29.9x with expected EPS of $6.02 over the following four quarters. This is slightly above the S&P 500 average of about 22.65. Keep in mind, Nvidia continually increases their revenue expectations as business continues to grow by leaps and bounds. NVDA stock is likely not a bubble at this price, but that does not mean investors are going to continually push the price higher and higher. Other stocks in the AI trade, may, however, be a bit overvalued relative to future earnings and growth potential, and this may keep a lid on NVDA price increases.
November 24, 2025 at 4:02 PM
dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social
Non-Farm Payrolls added more jobs than expected in September, but saw negative revisions in previous months.
The Federal Reserve will have to contend with data skew in its upcoming decision.
I expect no move in the upcoming meeting
#Economy
#StockMarket
#Investing
November 21, 2025 at 4:05 PM
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NVDA stock has shot up from its earnings release with better-than-expected revenue, earnings, and forecast. However, #NVDA stock is having trouble maintaining upward momentum.
Look for future bottom up revenue declines from other AI companies first
#StockMarket
#Investing
#Economy
November 20, 2025 at 4:23 PM
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Walmart stock is shooting up on better-than-expected revenue and earnings, and they have increased their forecast. Online and delivery are leading the charge; this, despite the tariffs and price pressures.
#Stockmarket
#Investing
#Economy
November 20, 2025 at 4:01 PM
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The Home Depot #HD stock, took a hit after missing earnings. This is a sign of the tariffs effects on the consumer and overall economy
But the tariffs will eventually be struck down by the Supreme Court, giving the consumer their money back.
#StockMarket
#Investing
#Economy
November 19, 2025 at 4:55 PM
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Michael Burry is short #NVDA and is already slightly profitable. The $110 puts for 17DEC2027 have plenty of time, and likely lot of rationale for continued downside moves. AI trade is likely to succumb to bottom-up selling as companies fall short of profits
#Trading
#StockMarket
November 18, 2025 at 4:27 PM
dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social
The stock market has been driven by AI. This week, we get consumer news via Walmart, Home Depot, and others.
Looking beyond these current numbers, the consumer will be in far better shape once the tariffs are struck down.
#StockMarket
#Economy
#Investing

open.substack.com/pub/dhtaylor...
How Bad Is The Economy?
We won't be getting consistent flows of economic data for a few weeks. In the meantime, the consumer sector of the S&P 500 tells us the consumer-driven economy is weakening
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
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How well is the consumer doing?
Confidence & consumption are closely correlated. Confidence is in the gutter. But the concerns are the tariffs and shutdown; Both will shift.
Given that, consumer staples stocks may see potential upside
#EconFin
#StockFin
November 17, 2025 at 2:32 PM
dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social
The CME Fed Cut prediction is showing balanced for December.
The Fed is flying blind—the resumption of data from the shutdown will take time. Without reasonable data, the Fed makes no moves in December, and for that, the stock market sold off.
#FinSky
#EconSky
November 14, 2025 at 3:39 PM
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The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is at its 2nd-worst reading in history. This week, I am looking to the Consumer Staple sector of the S&P 500, the only sector in the red this year.
This will show the difference in the AI economy v. consumers.
#EconSky
#FinSKly
November 13, 2025 at 3:59 PM
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The employment situation remains sideways with no real impact yet from tariff taxation. Initial claims and continuing claims have not moved much.
Unemployment will move as Federal workers who've taken voluntary furloughs start to show up in data, just not jobless claims
#EconSky
#FinSky
September 26, 2025 at 3:17 PM
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The M2 Money Supply growth declined for the month of August, and this portends economic contraction in the economy.
Money supply is driven by business growth and consumer expenditures via fractional banking. If supply declines, growth follows.
#EconSky
#FinSky
September 24, 2025 at 2:49 PM
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The next major economic release will be is Tuesday with M2 Money Supply. If the pace of money growth slows, this shows continued decrease in economic activity from the tariffs. This is more of a leading indicator, and one of the key economic data points.
#FinSKy
#EconSky
September 22, 2025 at 2:37 PM
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The US 10-year Treasury yield is moving lower to start the week on increased likelihood of rate cuts amidst slowing private-sector employment. But if the economy slows, there will be less tax take by the government which will drive interest rates up
#FinSky
#EconSky
July 21, 2025 at 3:53 PM
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Trump is imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods as a punishment for the trial of Bolsonaro. Coffee futures had been much higher earlier on fears of a poor harvest. So, while the price of coffee did move higher on the latest news, it is inconsequential in the overall picture.
#FinSky
#EconSky
July 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
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Euro currency has soared since January as the US dollar has sold off. Versus the Chinese yuan, this will improve terms of trade for European consumers and businesses buy raw materials.
But, eventually, the ECBN may take note and make changes.
#FinSky
#EconSky
July 9, 2025 at 3:17 PM
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Copper soared to a new all-time high. Tariff threats have driven the price of the industrial metal higher on price hikes.
Copper typically follows economic expansion. However, tariffs are an anomaly, and the price of copper is artificially inflated as a result.
#EconSky
#FinSky
July 9, 2025 at 2:50 PM
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The stock market rallied Thursday after non-farm payrolls showed continued strong numbers.
In the meantime, tariffs are back in consideration with a slew of activity likely to occur this week as the deadline looms.
The Big Beautiful Bill passed: bond market has taken notice.
#EconSky
#FinSky
July 7, 2025 at 4:16 PM
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The US Dollar Index continues to slide lower as investors leave for other opportunities. Whereas during the COVID-led inflation, investors flocked to the US, now those funds are finding other opportunities. The US economy will react in kind.
#FinSKy
#EconSky
July 1, 2025 at 3:28 PM
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The stock market has rallied to new all-time highs after April's selloff. The leading sector? Industrials. AXON is up 1,000% in five years with many others seeing big triple-digit returns over the same time period.
#FinSky
#EconSky
June 30, 2025 at 3:37 PM
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Inflation edged higher. Tariffs, however, will worsen this trend. That, in turn, will push unemploynet upward. While the Federal Reserve will act to maintain employment growth, the balance will shift in favor of slower economic growth.
#FinSky
#EconSky
June 28, 2025 at 4:01 PM
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Personal incomes & expendtures declined month-over-month, but are still positive year-over-year. However, that pace is declining. This is the future of the US economic growth rate. Factor in tariffs, the economy grows less rapidly
#FinSKy
#EconSky
June 28, 2025 at 3:20 PM
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The stock market is up 5.25% year-to-date. Some sectors are outperforming the broader market. Then, if you break down the individual sectors, you see some stocks outperform within. This potentially leads a tale of two economies with cracks under the surface
#EconSky
#FinSky
June 27, 2025 at 4:16 PM