Dalia Dassa Kaye
@dassakaye.bsky.social
Middle East/geopolitics/diplomacy analyst. Current: Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center. Former: Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. More info here: https://www.daliadassakaye.net/.
Pinned
Enduring Hostility | Stanford University Press
A timely and rigorous analysis of a half-century of American policymakers' shifting perceptions of Iran, and how they have driven US-Iran relations.
www.sup.org
It's publication week! My new book takes a deep dive into how US policy on Iran has been made since the 1980's. It's a story of why US-Iran hostility has endured for now nearly half a century. Please check it out!
Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
More astonishing public comments from Danish PM on Greenland: “I believe one should take the American president seriously when he says that he wants Greenland. But I will also make it clear that if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO..."
Denmark Says US Attack on Greenland Would Mean End of NATO
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that if Donald Trump were to attack the Danish island of Greenland that would mean the end of the NATO alliance.
www.bloomberg.com
January 5, 2026 at 5:16 PM
More astonishing public comments from Danish PM on Greenland: “I believe one should take the American president seriously when he says that he wants Greenland. But I will also make it clear that if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO..."
Kudos to @profsaunders.bsky.social for consistently and brilliantly linking current foreign policy developments to scholarly literature for context. Extremely helpful!
great thread
this does not end well
this does not end well
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
January 5, 2026 at 5:11 PM
Kudos to @profsaunders.bsky.social for consistently and brilliantly linking current foreign policy developments to scholarly literature for context. Extremely helpful!
The Venezuela operation may raise the risks that the US strikes Iran again. I assess these risks in my conversation with @cnbc.com
Could US strike Iran again? Expert says Venezuela strike underlines the risks
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Senior Fellow at UCLA Burkle Center, talks about where Iran stands in light of the capture of Venezuelan president Maduro. She says the US administration sees a link between the Madu...
www.cnbc.com
January 5, 2026 at 5:04 PM
The Venezuela operation may raise the risks that the US strikes Iran again. I assess these risks in my conversation with @cnbc.com
Iran is not Venezuela. And another military strike on Iran is not inevitable. but i can see a logic for why the dynamics in Trump 2.0 could lead us there.
there is not a zero chance of this by any means. i've said many times that the 12-day war was more like a 12-day battle in a multi-year war. The Venezuela attack + ongoing protests may only make the next battle with Iran more likely.
As discussed here previously, the US seems to be gearing up for a strike on Iran.
January 4, 2026 at 10:23 PM
Iran is not Venezuela. And another military strike on Iran is not inevitable. but i can see a logic for why the dynamics in Trump 2.0 could lead us there.
there is not a zero chance of this by any means. i've said many times that the 12-day war was more like a 12-day battle in a multi-year war. The Venezuela attack + ongoing protests may only make the next battle with Iran more likely.
As discussed here previously, the US seems to be gearing up for a strike on Iran.
"Similar increases in C-17 activity at the base were observed ahead of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025."
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-special-...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-special-...
January 4, 2026 at 10:15 PM
there is not a zero chance of this by any means. i've said many times that the 12-day war was more like a 12-day battle in a multi-year war. The Venezuela attack + ongoing protests may only make the next battle with Iran more likely.
great show--excited for 2nd season!
With “The Pitt,” Noah Wyle and his castmates turned one harrowing day at an emergency room into an unforgettable season of television. The writer Sam Anderson visited the set during the filming of the second season to see how far the team went to make the hospital drama feel so real.
On ‘The Pitt,’ E.R. Doctors Try to Fix This Broken World
www.nytimes.com
January 4, 2026 at 10:12 PM
great show--excited for 2nd season!
good. we need serious domestic debate not only about the legality of these actions but also the objectives, which are murkier by the hour.
Top Democrat calls operation 'a violation of the law' and promises Senate vote on President Trump's war powers n.pr/4jr9Jge
Rubio says there's 'not a war against Venezuela' despite U.S. capture of Maduro
Top Democrat calls operation 'a violation of the law' and promises Senate vote on President Trump's war powers
n.pr
January 4, 2026 at 10:10 PM
good. we need serious domestic debate not only about the legality of these actions but also the objectives, which are murkier by the hour.
So the US will maintain a military blockade to coerce Venezuela's not so new leadership to: 1. allow private investment in oil 2. stop narcotics trafficking. How will we know if these goals are met? How long does the US keep up this coercive posture?
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday sidestepped questions on whether the U.S. would run Venezuela, appearing to pivot away from President Trump’s assertion a day earlier. Rubio emphasized instead that the administration would keep a military “quarantine” on oil exports.
Rubio Stresses U.S. Plan to Coerce Venezuela Rather Than Govern It
The secretary of state said that a military “quarantine” on some oil exports would stay in place to put pressure on the country’s acting leadership.
nyti.ms
January 4, 2026 at 9:58 PM
So the US will maintain a military blockade to coerce Venezuela's not so new leadership to: 1. allow private investment in oil 2. stop narcotics trafficking. How will we know if these goals are met? How long does the US keep up this coercive posture?
where are folks getting legit news about what's happening on the ground in Venezuela?
January 4, 2026 at 3:14 AM
where are folks getting legit news about what's happening on the ground in Venezuela?
looks like it. but question is regime change to what end? doesn't look like democracy is on the agenda, the regime itself is so far in place minus Maduro, and nothing else seems to be thought through.
It was always about regime change. Here's our @nytimes story from September breaking the news that Rubio was leading an effort in the Trump administration to oust Maduro, with the support of Miller and Ratcliffe. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/u...
Top Trump Aides Push for Ousting Maduro From Power in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
January 4, 2026 at 12:28 AM
looks like it. but question is regime change to what end? doesn't look like democracy is on the agenda, the regime itself is so far in place minus Maduro, and nothing else seems to be thought through.
Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
Rep. Seth Moulton: "This is insane. What the hell are we doing? ... this is illegal."
January 3, 2026 at 5:59 PM
Rep. Seth Moulton: "This is insane. What the hell are we doing? ... this is illegal."
This is not just about the future of Venezuela. This is about the future of American democracy. Please members of Congress, connect the dots before it’s too late.
January 3, 2026 at 5:58 PM
This is not just about the future of Venezuela. This is about the future of American democracy. Please members of Congress, connect the dots before it’s too late.
Trump completely unleashed is a terrifying reality for America and the world.
Breaking News: President Trump said that the U.S. would “run the country” after capturing Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, in a military attack. Follow live updates.
Watch Live: Trump Says U.S. Will ‘Run' Venezuela After Capture of Maduro
nyti.ms
January 3, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Trump completely unleashed is a terrifying reality for America and the world.
Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
January 3, 2026 at 1:41 PM
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
👇
No one knows what’s going to happen in Iran.
January 3, 2026 at 12:05 AM
👇
This part of my assessment of the US and Iran just over a month ago seems relevant in light of Trump's post today
January 2, 2026 at 11:58 PM
This part of my assessment of the US and Iran just over a month ago seems relevant in light of Trump's post today
A US government that was serious about protecting Iranian people would not be deporting Iranians back to Iran against their will. www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...
55 more Iranians deported from U.S., Iran says
The U.S. government has not acknowledged the deportation flight.
www.pbs.org
January 2, 2026 at 4:19 PM
A US government that was serious about protecting Iranian people would not be deporting Iranians back to Iran against their will. www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...
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Exclusive: The CIA carried out a drone strike earlier this month on a port facility in Venezuela, sources told CNN, marking the first known US attack on a target inside that country. This is the attack Trump has repeatedly alluded to in recent days. www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/p...
Exclusive: CIA carried out drone strike on port facility on Venezuelan coast | CNN Politics
The CIA carried out a drone strike earlier this month on a port facility on the coast of Venezuela, sources familiar with the matter told CNN, marking the first known US attack on a target inside that...
www.cnn.com
December 30, 2025 at 1:43 AM
⁉️
Surge of Economic Pain Pushes Iranians to the Streets www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/w...
Surge of Economic Pain Pushes Iranians to the Streets
www.nytimes.com
December 30, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Surge of Economic Pain Pushes Iranians to the Streets www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/w...
So much for the ‘one and done’ logic of the June war. But the question becomes: is it viable for Israel/US to continue bombing Iran on a regular basis like Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Syria/Lebanon? The military, political, and economic costs could be much higher in this case.
Trump threatens strikes against Iran if it restarts nuclear programme ft.trib.al/zoB8d7K
Trump threatens strikes against Iran if it restarts nuclear programme
US president warns Hamas it has a ‘very short period of time to disarm’ after talks with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu
ft.trib.al
December 30, 2025 at 1:26 AM
So much for the ‘one and done’ logic of the June war. But the question becomes: is it viable for Israel/US to continue bombing Iran on a regular basis like Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Syria/Lebanon? The military, political, and economic costs could be much higher in this case.
Regardless of the veracity of the pardon claim, it should be clear if it wasn't already that expectations that Trump would press Netanyahu on Gaza (or for restraint on Iran) are unrealistic. They are political allies at the end of the day.
Trump calls Netanyahu a “hero” and says a pardon is coming, citing Herzog. Israel’s President’s Residence says no such assurance was given.
www.jpost.com/israel-news/...
www.jpost.com/israel-news/...
Trump says Herzog told him Netanyahu pardon 'on the way,' presidency denies claim
The President's Residence issued a statement denying that any such conversation took place.
www.jpost.com
December 29, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Regardless of the veracity of the pardon claim, it should be clear if it wasn't already that expectations that Trump would press Netanyahu on Gaza (or for restraint on Iran) are unrealistic. They are political allies at the end of the day.
Of course this news is huge if confirmed, but meanwhile we're all staring at Bibi's matching outfit with Trump. That about sums up where we're at in the world right now.
Moments after seemingly confirming that the US conducted a land strike on Venezuela, Trump refuses to say if the military or CIA was behind the operation
December 29, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Of course this news is huge if confirmed, but meanwhile we're all staring at Bibi's matching outfit with Trump. That about sums up where we're at in the world right now.
"Although Trump’s plan explicitly states that Israel will progressively withdraw and hand over territory in Gaza to the International Stabilization Force, on the ground Israel is consolidating what appears to be a permanent military presence across more than half of Gaza."
A meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump may determine whether the agreement advances—or hardens into a permanent order. newyorkermag.visitlink.me/eLKgWD
A Reckoning for the Stalled Gaza Peace Plan
A meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump may determine whether the agreement advances—or hardens into a permanent order.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
December 29, 2025 at 7:05 PM
"Although Trump’s plan explicitly states that Israel will progressively withdraw and hand over territory in Gaza to the International Stabilization Force, on the ground Israel is consolidating what appears to be a permanent military presence across more than half of Gaza."
Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
As a researcher at RAND, Robert Lempert helps communities around the world plan for uncertain futures and survive disasters.
After his home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, he's been helping his own community become a global leader in wildfire resilience. https://lat.ms/3Y4LDOy
After his home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, he's been helping his own community become a global leader in wildfire resilience. https://lat.ms/3Y4LDOy
His computer simulations help communities survive disasters. Can they design a Palisades that never burns?
Robert Lempert, a RAND researcher who lost his home in the Palisades fire, hopes to use computer simulations, and his neighbors' ideas, to design a fire-resilient community.
www.latimes.com
December 24, 2025 at 3:06 PM
As a researcher at RAND, Robert Lempert helps communities around the world plan for uncertain futures and survive disasters.
After his home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, he's been helping his own community become a global leader in wildfire resilience. https://lat.ms/3Y4LDOy
After his home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, he's been helping his own community become a global leader in wildfire resilience. https://lat.ms/3Y4LDOy
Important lessons and ideas for how to move forward with reconstruction and development in Gaza in the years ahead, following many other great reports from @rand.org on the topic.
But all of this will require a political will in Israel (and the US) that does not seem to currently exist.
But all of this will require a political will in Israel (and the US) that does not seem to currently exist.
"The way Gaza rebuilds in the next several years will determine whether this moment can break the region's long cycle of violence or become yet another false dawn."
How to Keep Gaza's Recovery from Becoming an 80-Year Project
The coming year will determine whether Gaza's recovery begins on realistic footing or remains in a quagmire. Getting the details right could give Palestinians what they have lacked for decades: not ju...
www.rand.org
December 26, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Important lessons and ideas for how to move forward with reconstruction and development in Gaza in the years ahead, following many other great reports from @rand.org on the topic.
But all of this will require a political will in Israel (and the US) that does not seem to currently exist.
But all of this will require a political will in Israel (and the US) that does not seem to currently exist.