Daily Chartbook
@dailychartbook.bsky.social
I look at hundreds of charts every day.
After the closing bell, I curate the best ones and send them to investors.
Subscribe to be one of them (it's free):
https://dailychartbook.com
After the closing bell, I curate the best ones and send them to investors.
Subscribe to be one of them (it's free):
https://dailychartbook.com
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Daily Chartbook
The day's best charts and insights, curated
www.dailychartbook.com
We look at hundreds of charts a day.
After the bell, we curate the best ones and send them to investors.
No long-winded paragraphs. No filler. Just the charts and insights that matter.
Subscribe:
www.dailychartbook.com
After the bell, we curate the best ones and send them to investors.
No long-winded paragraphs. No filler. Just the charts and insights that matter.
Subscribe:
www.dailychartbook.com
“Many software companies have been revising their expectations for future revenue and earnings down ... we haven’t seen this much downward revision to the median software company’s sales estimate relative to the broader tech sector since the 2009 financial crisis.”
Tracy Alloway
Tracy Alloway
January 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM
“Many software companies have been revising their expectations for future revenue and earnings down ... we haven’t seen this much downward revision to the median software company’s sales estimate relative to the broader tech sector since the 2009 financial crisis.”
Tracy Alloway
Tracy Alloway
“Almost 1000 executives at roughly 6,000 US-listed firms have unloaded shares this month, compared with 207 who added, resulting in the highest sell-to-buy ratio in five years”.
-Natalia Kniazhevich
-Natalia Kniazhevich
January 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM
“Almost 1000 executives at roughly 6,000 US-listed firms have unloaded shares this month, compared with 207 who added, resulting in the highest sell-to-buy ratio in five years”.
-Natalia Kniazhevich
-Natalia Kniazhevich
“Markets tend to test new Fed chairs. The average correction in the first six months is 15%. When the chair faces their first crisis, investors don’t wait and see how they handle it. Fed independence is a potential crisis for Warsh but it could be anything.”
-Ed Clissold, NDR
-Ed Clissold, NDR
January 31, 2026 at 1:01 PM
“Markets tend to test new Fed chairs. The average correction in the first six months is 15%. When the chair faces their first crisis, investors don’t wait and see how they handle it. Fed independence is a potential crisis for Warsh but it could be anything.”
-Ed Clissold, NDR
-Ed Clissold, NDR
“If Trump wants someone easy on inflation, he got the wrong guy in Kevin Warsh.”
-Anna Wong, Bloomberg
-Anna Wong, Bloomberg
January 31, 2026 at 12:10 PM
“If Trump wants someone easy on inflation, he got the wrong guy in Kevin Warsh.”
-Anna Wong, Bloomberg
-Anna Wong, Bloomberg
The Chicago Business Barometer jumped to 54 in January, breaking a streak of 25 consecutive months of contraction. It was the strongest reading since Nov’23.
via Koyfin
via Koyfin
January 31, 2026 at 11:05 AM
The Chicago Business Barometer jumped to 54 in January, breaking a streak of 25 consecutive months of contraction. It was the strongest reading since Nov’23.
via Koyfin
via Koyfin
"Markets are pricing a greater set of risks to the economy’s outcome. Gold is on the rise and so too the 10Y term premium excluding the 10Y breakeven inflation rate."
-Steven Blitz, TS Lombard
-Steven Blitz, TS Lombard
January 30, 2026 at 3:01 PM
"Markets are pricing a greater set of risks to the economy’s outcome. Gold is on the rise and so too the 10Y term premium excluding the 10Y breakeven inflation rate."
-Steven Blitz, TS Lombard
-Steven Blitz, TS Lombard
"AI adoption increased last year to 17%, especially in areas where work tasks are more exposed to AI automation, and many companies appear eager to implement AI to reduce labor costs."
Goldman Sachs via Blake Millard, The Sandbox Daily
Goldman Sachs via Blake Millard, The Sandbox Daily
January 30, 2026 at 2:29 PM
"AI adoption increased last year to 17%, especially in areas where work tasks are more exposed to AI automation, and many companies appear eager to implement AI to reduce labor costs."
Goldman Sachs via Blake Millard, The Sandbox Daily
Goldman Sachs via Blake Millard, The Sandbox Daily
"Employment growth in large companies is outpacing job growth in smaller companies. The source of the underperformance of small businesses could be AI or it could be the trade war."
-Apollo Slok
-Apollo Slok
January 30, 2026 at 2:01 PM
"Employment growth in large companies is outpacing job growth in smaller companies. The source of the underperformance of small businesses could be AI or it could be the trade war."
-Apollo Slok
-Apollo Slok
"A weaker dollar is bad for bitcoin because it depresses bitcoin's value in other currencies. That may cause overseas investors to take their gains or cut their losses by selling their bitcoin."
-Ed Yardeni
-Ed Yardeni
January 30, 2026 at 1:29 PM
"A weaker dollar is bad for bitcoin because it depresses bitcoin's value in other currencies. That may cause overseas investors to take their gains or cut their losses by selling their bitcoin."
-Ed Yardeni
-Ed Yardeni
"Bitcoin’s 'digital gold' promise is unraveling as traders forgo the token for surging metals, hurting a narrative that once defined the asset’s macro appeal."
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
January 30, 2026 at 1:01 PM
"Bitcoin’s 'digital gold' promise is unraveling as traders forgo the token for surging metals, hurting a narrative that once defined the asset’s macro appeal."
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
"As households repaired their balance sheets coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. government borrowed more money than ever. Government debt-to-GDP has skyrocketed while household debt-to-GDP has fallen considerably."
Ben Carlson
Ben Carlson
January 30, 2026 at 12:27 PM
"As households repaired their balance sheets coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. government borrowed more money than ever. Government debt-to-GDP has skyrocketed while household debt-to-GDP has fallen considerably."
Ben Carlson
Ben Carlson
"For every 5 dollars the government collects in taxes 1 dollar goes to paying interest on debt"
-Apollo Slok
-Apollo Slok
January 30, 2026 at 11:57 AM
"For every 5 dollars the government collects in taxes 1 dollar goes to paying interest on debt"
-Apollo Slok
-Apollo Slok
"The S&P 500 has spent 71.5% of its time above its 10-month moving average. In those periods, the index delivered an average annual gain of 10.1%. When price traded below it, returns dropped to 3.4%."
-Grant Hawkridge, All Star Charts
-Grant Hawkridge, All Star Charts
January 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM
"The S&P 500 has spent 71.5% of its time above its 10-month moving average. In those periods, the index delivered an average annual gain of 10.1%. When price traded below it, returns dropped to 3.4%."
-Grant Hawkridge, All Star Charts
-Grant Hawkridge, All Star Charts
"The last time the S&P 500 Software & Services industry group was down at least 20% over a 63-session stretch while [SPY] was positive happened to be June 12, 2000."
Luke Kawa
Luke Kawa
January 30, 2026 at 10:59 AM
"The last time the S&P 500 Software & Services industry group was down at least 20% over a 63-session stretch while [SPY] was positive happened to be June 12, 2000."
Luke Kawa
Luke Kawa
"The average purchase for all the flows into all the spot $BTC since inception (January 2024) is $90,200. With today's plunge, the AVERAGE $BTC ETF holder is about $5,000 (or ~7% underwater)."
-Jim Bianco
-Jim Bianco
January 30, 2026 at 10:29 AM
"The average purchase for all the flows into all the spot $BTC since inception (January 2024) is $90,200. With today's plunge, the AVERAGE $BTC ETF holder is about $5,000 (or ~7% underwater)."
-Jim Bianco
-Jim Bianco
"Gold VIX recently spiked to a level rarely seen before. The chart below highlights, with a red dot, the rare occasions when the Gold VIX crossed above 38 for the first time in three months ... The sample size is so small that it may be dangerous to attempt to draw conclusions."
Jay Kaeppel
Jay Kaeppel
January 30, 2026 at 9:59 AM
"Gold VIX recently spiked to a level rarely seen before. The chart below highlights, with a red dot, the rare occasions when the Gold VIX crossed above 38 for the first time in three months ... The sample size is so small that it may be dangerous to attempt to draw conclusions."
Jay Kaeppel
Jay Kaeppel
"I think one boring but underrated reason behind the weakness in the dollar and the strength in metals and international stocks is that we are in the middle of a cyclical reacceleration."
-Juan Correa-Ossa, BCA Research
-Juan Correa-Ossa, BCA Research
January 30, 2026 at 9:30 AM
"I think one boring but underrated reason behind the weakness in the dollar and the strength in metals and international stocks is that we are in the middle of a cyclical reacceleration."
-Juan Correa-Ossa, BCA Research
-Juan Correa-Ossa, BCA Research
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q4 GDP growth dropped to 4.2% from 5.4% on Jan 26, primarily due to net exports.
via Augur Infinity
via Augur Infinity
January 30, 2026 at 9:01 AM
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q4 GDP growth dropped to 4.2% from 5.4% on Jan 26, primarily due to net exports.
via Augur Infinity
via Augur Infinity
5 of Thursday's best charts and insights:
DC Lite #526
"Gold VIX recently spiked to a level rarely seen before"
www.dailychartbook.com
January 30, 2026 at 3:39 AM
5 of Thursday's best charts and insights:
Reposted by Daily Chartbook
“The dollar is still trading at a rich premium on most valuation metrics, leaving it vulnerable to further declines.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/843 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
January 29, 2026 at 3:17 PM
“The dollar is still trading at a rich premium on most valuation metrics, leaving it vulnerable to further declines.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/843 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
Reposted by Daily Chartbook
“Rolling 6-month correlation among Big Tech stocks is at its lowest level in the past decade.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/843 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
January 29, 2026 at 3:21 PM
“Rolling 6-month correlation among Big Tech stocks is at its lowest level in the past decade.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/843 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
"The areas of the market driving earnings growth aren’t tethered to the traditional economy ... while earnings growth and the market are very much on track for another strong year, their results aren’t likely to support the labor market or the median consumer."
-JPMorgan AM
-JPMorgan AM
January 29, 2026 at 2:03 PM
"The areas of the market driving earnings growth aren’t tethered to the traditional economy ... while earnings growth and the market are very much on track for another strong year, their results aren’t likely to support the labor market or the median consumer."
-JPMorgan AM
-JPMorgan AM
"Another feature of this fixed income environment: an expected surge in U.S. corporate bond sales, partly tied to the AI buildout, with BlackRock’s global markets team seeing U.S. investment grade bond issuance hitting a record $1.85 trillion this year."
-BlackRock
-BlackRock
January 29, 2026 at 1:31 PM
"Another feature of this fixed income environment: an expected surge in U.S. corporate bond sales, partly tied to the AI buildout, with BlackRock’s global markets team seeing U.S. investment grade bond issuance hitting a record $1.85 trillion this year."
-BlackRock
-BlackRock
"There is a capex boom underway, and corporate capex plans are moving higher driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill."
-Apollo Slok
-Apollo Slok
January 29, 2026 at 12:59 PM
"There is a capex boom underway, and corporate capex plans are moving higher driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill."
-Apollo Slok
-Apollo Slok
"The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the carry trade, which is now a critical variable and has survived two sharp reversals in the last two years to set new highs."
@johnauthers.bsky.social
@johnauthers.bsky.social
January 29, 2026 at 12:30 PM
"The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the carry trade, which is now a critical variable and has survived two sharp reversals in the last two years to set new highs."
@johnauthers.bsky.social
@johnauthers.bsky.social