Cole Harvey
@colejharvey.bsky.social
Assistant professor of political science; PhD UNC-CH; election manipulation, authoritarianism, former USSR region
https://colejharvey.github.io/
https://colejharvey.github.io/
New website!
📖 With updated information on my book manuscript on:
❌ How mass protest fails to prevent election manipulation
❌ How dictators who manipulate more are better at defeating protest
⚖️ What *does* interfere with manipulation efforts
colejharvey.github.io/book.html
📖 With updated information on my book manuscript on:
❌ How mass protest fails to prevent election manipulation
❌ How dictators who manipulate more are better at defeating protest
⚖️ What *does* interfere with manipulation efforts
colejharvey.github.io/book.html
Cole J. Harvey, PhD - Book project: The Machinery of Manipulation
colejharvey.github.io
August 21, 2025 at 5:59 PM
New website!
📖 With updated information on my book manuscript on:
❌ How mass protest fails to prevent election manipulation
❌ How dictators who manipulate more are better at defeating protest
⚖️ What *does* interfere with manipulation efforts
colejharvey.github.io/book.html
📖 With updated information on my book manuscript on:
❌ How mass protest fails to prevent election manipulation
❌ How dictators who manipulate more are better at defeating protest
⚖️ What *does* interfere with manipulation efforts
colejharvey.github.io/book.html
President Trump at only +2.6 net approval in Oklahoma seems hard to believe, and I'm sure reliable point estimates are hard to pin down for such a small state.
But then again my neighbor recently replaced his Trump flag with an American flag, so... 👀
But then again my neighbor recently replaced his Trump flag with an American flag, so... 👀
We estimate that his approval is net negative in 36 states plus DC
August 19, 2025 at 9:35 PM
President Trump at only +2.6 net approval in Oklahoma seems hard to believe, and I'm sure reliable point estimates are hard to pin down for such a small state.
But then again my neighbor recently replaced his Trump flag with an American flag, so... 👀
But then again my neighbor recently replaced his Trump flag with an American flag, so... 👀
I am adopting ~10 chapters from this book for my intro comparative politics course this fall!
1/
🚨 What if intro political science textbooks were better and cheaper?
We built one:
✅ $1/chapter
✅ Modular & flexible
✅ Written by top scholars
✅ Full (free!) instructor resources
🌐 www.politicsexperiment.com
Help us spread the word! @rudalev.bsky.social & I are the editors!
🚨 What if intro political science textbooks were better and cheaper?
We built one:
✅ $1/chapter
✅ Modular & flexible
✅ Written by top scholars
✅ Full (free!) instructor resources
🌐 www.politicsexperiment.com
Help us spread the word! @rudalev.bsky.social & I are the editors!
Home Page - A Political Science Experiment
www.PoliticsExperiment.com
July 23, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I am adopting ~10 chapters from this book for my intro comparative politics course this fall!
Reposted by Cole Harvey
It was painful to write an obituary, from an academic's perspective, for one of Russia's most important civil society organizations
@themoscowtimes.com
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/11/w...
@themoscowtimes.com
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/11/w...
Why Russia's Last Independent Election Monitor Mattered to the World - The Moscow Times
Opinion | After 25 years of work, Russia’s only independent election monitoring organization, Golos, is sadly no more.
www.themoscowtimes.com
July 11, 2025 at 4:08 PM
It was painful to write an obituary, from an academic's perspective, for one of Russia's most important civil society organizations
@themoscowtimes.com
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/11/w...
@themoscowtimes.com
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/11/w...
There definitely seems to have been a phase shift this semester
On the verge of declaring defeat with chatgpt in my asynchronous online dataviz class. Something changed this semester compared to past ones and SO MANY assignments are essentially 100% LLM output.
May 8, 2025 at 2:02 AM
There definitely seems to have been a phase shift this semester
April 6, 2025 at 5:09 PM
I am genuinely very curious how easily the president will be able to remove from power a man who:
1) apparently has access to / control over govt payroll and Social Security payment infrastructure, and
2) has a large portion of his wealth tied to the idea that he has governing influence
🤔🤔🤔
1) apparently has access to / control over govt payroll and Social Security payment infrastructure, and
2) has a large portion of his wealth tied to the idea that he has governing influence
🤔🤔🤔
"Donald Trump has told his inner circle, including members of his Cabinet, that Elon Musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role as governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man."
Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon
The president is pleased with Musk but the decision comes as the tech mogul increasingly looks like a political liability.
www.politico.com
April 2, 2025 at 4:13 PM
I am genuinely very curious how easily the president will be able to remove from power a man who:
1) apparently has access to / control over govt payroll and Social Security payment infrastructure, and
2) has a large portion of his wealth tied to the idea that he has governing influence
🤔🤔🤔
1) apparently has access to / control over govt payroll and Social Security payment infrastructure, and
2) has a large portion of his wealth tied to the idea that he has governing influence
🤔🤔🤔
Musk's turnout-buying scheme in WI is probably illegal (electionlawblog.org?p=149196).
As a social scientist of election integrity, what's interesting here is the effort to build a patronage-based election manipulating apparatus in a society that doesn't have one.
As a social scientist of election integrity, what's interesting here is the effort to build a patronage-based election manipulating apparatus in a society that doesn't have one.
Elon Musk Appears to Be Breaking Wisconsin Law Against Vote Buying in Offering a Chance to Win $1 Million to Anyone Who Voted in Wisconsin Supreme Court Race #ELB
During the 2024 elections, there was a question whether Elon Musk was breaking federal law in offering various incentives only to registered voters, including what was essentially a lottery open only ...
electionlawblog.org
March 28, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Musk's turnout-buying scheme in WI is probably illegal (electionlawblog.org?p=149196).
As a social scientist of election integrity, what's interesting here is the effort to build a patronage-based election manipulating apparatus in a society that doesn't have one.
As a social scientist of election integrity, what's interesting here is the effort to build a patronage-based election manipulating apparatus in a society that doesn't have one.
Very encouraging for democratic resilience
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
March 18, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Very encouraging for democratic resilience
Not to add undue alarm, but two things I have not yet seen in the Discourse:
1) If Musk's team has made code changes to the the federal payments system, what happens if he is sidelined?
I.e. if Trump pushes him out, does anyone else know how to cut the checks?
www.wired.com/story/elon-m...
1) If Musk's team has made code changes to the the federal payments system, what happens if he is sidelined?
I.e. if Trump pushes him out, does anyone else know how to cut the checks?
www.wired.com/story/elon-m...
A 25-Year-Old With Elon Musk Ties Has Direct Access to the Federal Payment System
The Bureau of the Fiscal Service is a sleepy part of the Treasury Department. It’s also where, sources say, a 25-year-old engineer tied to Elon Musk has admin privileges over the code that controls So...
www.wired.com
February 5, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Not to add undue alarm, but two things I have not yet seen in the Discourse:
1) If Musk's team has made code changes to the the federal payments system, what happens if he is sidelined?
I.e. if Trump pushes him out, does anyone else know how to cut the checks?
www.wired.com/story/elon-m...
1) If Musk's team has made code changes to the the federal payments system, what happens if he is sidelined?
I.e. if Trump pushes him out, does anyone else know how to cut the checks?
www.wired.com/story/elon-m...
Perhaps the senior Democratic cohort thinks they can replay 2005 and W. Bush's failed social security reform: Trump overreach ➡️ Dems taking Congress in 2026.
But this won't work: the fight is about the rules of the game, not just policy. A few thoughts from a scholar of electoral authoritarianism 🧵
But this won't work: the fight is about the rules of the game, not just policy. A few thoughts from a scholar of electoral authoritarianism 🧵
Chuck Schumer’s advice for Democrats staring at a long two or more years out of power: Just wait.
“Trump will screw up,” he tells Semafor in an interview.
“Trump will screw up,” he tells Semafor in an interview.
‘Trump will screw up’: Schumer plots the Democratic comeback
The Senate minority leader talked to Semafor about his approach to the president’s polarizing uses of executive power.
www.semafor.com
February 3, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Perhaps the senior Democratic cohort thinks they can replay 2005 and W. Bush's failed social security reform: Trump overreach ➡️ Dems taking Congress in 2026.
But this won't work: the fight is about the rules of the game, not just policy. A few thoughts from a scholar of electoral authoritarianism 🧵
But this won't work: the fight is about the rules of the game, not just policy. A few thoughts from a scholar of electoral authoritarianism 🧵
Reposted by Cole Harvey
We noticed there wasn't a starter pack on authoritarian politics yet – Now there is!
go.bsky.app/UFHn7sS
Spread and ask to join!
go.bsky.app/UFHn7sS
Spread and ask to join!
November 15, 2024 at 5:21 PM
We noticed there wasn't a starter pack on authoritarian politics yet – Now there is!
go.bsky.app/UFHn7sS
Spread and ask to join!
go.bsky.app/UFHn7sS
Spread and ask to join!
Beyond the problems identified in the quoted posted, each new post-elections news story like this one (www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...) takes my fury to new heights, considering how many pre-election stories were variations on "BREAKING: Trump campaigns in Wisconsin"
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Beyond the problems identified in the quoted posted, each new post-elections news story like this one (www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...) takes my fury to new heights, considering how many pre-election stories were variations on "BREAKING: Trump campaigns in Wisconsin"
Line stretching to the construction sign was ~15% of the people waiting to vote in Tulsa. Took about 1.75hrs.
Inspiring to see the commitment, but sad state of voting in OK.
Tulsa (380,000 registered voters) has *2* early polling places. Compare to Durham NC (250,000 RV) with 12 polling places!
Inspiring to see the commitment, but sad state of voting in OK.
Tulsa (380,000 registered voters) has *2* early polling places. Compare to Durham NC (250,000 RV) with 12 polling places!
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Line stretching to the construction sign was ~15% of the people waiting to vote in Tulsa. Took about 1.75hrs.
Inspiring to see the commitment, but sad state of voting in OK.
Tulsa (380,000 registered voters) has *2* early polling places. Compare to Durham NC (250,000 RV) with 12 polling places!
Inspiring to see the commitment, but sad state of voting in OK.
Tulsa (380,000 registered voters) has *2* early polling places. Compare to Durham NC (250,000 RV) with 12 polling places!
Situation in 🇬🇪 developing rapidly; major opposition parties are refusing their parliamentary mandates and the country's president refuses to recognize the official results (which show the ruling party with a narrow majority).
civil.ge/archives/631...
For background and survey data, see quoted post!
civil.ge/archives/631...
For background and survey data, see quoted post!
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Situation in 🇬🇪 developing rapidly; major opposition parties are refusing their parliamentary mandates and the country's president refuses to recognize the official results (which show the ruling party with a narrow majority).
civil.ge/archives/631...
For background and survey data, see quoted post!
civil.ge/archives/631...
For background and survey data, see quoted post!
While we Americans are justifiably stressed abt Nov. 5, there's another consequential election coming up--in the Republic of Georgia.
Like the US, Georgia is undergoing political polarization and threats to democracy.
See my analysis here with original survey data, via PONARS: tinyurl.com/66s3k2t6
Like the US, Georgia is undergoing political polarization and threats to democracy.
See my analysis here with original survey data, via PONARS: tinyurl.com/66s3k2t6
Survey Data from Republic of Georgia Highlights Risks of Polarization Ahead of 2024 Election - PONARS Eurasia
Image credit/license PONARS EURASIA POLICY MEMO NO. 914 (PDF) The Republic of Georgia will hold highly consequential elections on October 26. This is the first parliamentary election conducted under a...
www.ponarseurasia.org
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
While we Americans are justifiably stressed abt Nov. 5, there's another consequential election coming up--in the Republic of Georgia.
Like the US, Georgia is undergoing political polarization and threats to democracy.
See my analysis here with original survey data, via PONARS: tinyurl.com/66s3k2t6
Like the US, Georgia is undergoing political polarization and threats to democracy.
See my analysis here with original survey data, via PONARS: tinyurl.com/66s3k2t6
Agreed, which makes the prediction markets wildly overconfident in a Trump win, in my (non-betting) opinion:
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Agreed, which makes the prediction markets wildly overconfident in a Trump win, in my (non-betting) opinion:
So the last 12 hours or so have significantly increased the odds of Supreme Court reform in 2029, though, right?
Bright Side GIF
ALT: Bright Side GIF
media.tenor.com
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
So the last 12 hours or so have significantly increased the odds of Supreme Court reform in 2029, though, right?
I have little doubt that SCOTUS will rule in a way that benefits candidate Trump; the question remains how much damage will be done to the constitutional order along the way.
[PS: most authoritarian presidential regimes I know have absolute presidential immunity, note how well that works out.]
[PS: most authoritarian presidential regimes I know have absolute presidential immunity, note how well that works out.]
Alito tries to turn things on their head, by saying that to encourage peaceful transitions of power, you need to give incumbents absolute immunity so they will leave and won't worry about prosecution later. This is the most insane thing I've heard today (and there have been many crazy things).
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
I have little doubt that SCOTUS will rule in a way that benefits candidate Trump; the question remains how much damage will be done to the constitutional order along the way.
[PS: most authoritarian presidential regimes I know have absolute presidential immunity, note how well that works out.]
[PS: most authoritarian presidential regimes I know have absolute presidential immunity, note how well that works out.]
Hello polisky ! To introduce myself on Bluesky: I study authoritarian politics, election manipulation, and geographically Russia, Ukraine, etc.
To get started, I wrote a longish thread here on the attempted pogrom in Dagestan two days ago, and what it tells us about 🇷🇺 politics. Thoughts welcome!
To get started, I wrote a longish thread here on the attempted pogrom in Dagestan two days ago, and what it tells us about 🇷🇺 politics. Thoughts welcome!
The Putinite regime has no interest in ethnic or religious conflict in Russia. The whole state project is to depict modern Russia as a multi-confessional, multiethnic federation (of course, some confessions and some ethnicities are more equal than others).
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Hello polisky ! To introduce myself on Bluesky: I study authoritarian politics, election manipulation, and geographically Russia, Ukraine, etc.
To get started, I wrote a longish thread here on the attempted pogrom in Dagestan two days ago, and what it tells us about 🇷🇺 politics. Thoughts welcome!
To get started, I wrote a longish thread here on the attempted pogrom in Dagestan two days ago, and what it tells us about 🇷🇺 politics. Thoughts welcome!
Like Kevin notes here, when the videos from Makhachkala cycled up from regional accounts to more generalist journos/commentators, the vibe shifted to "Look what Putin has done."
I think that's right...but in the most roundabout way possible. 1/n on Dagestan and authoritarianism, and RU politics
I think that's right...but in the most roundabout way possible. 1/n on Dagestan and authoritarianism, and RU politics
When the Putin regime does atrocities, many foreigners — in a knee-jerk reaction — blame Russian society. Meanwhile, when a community in Russia does grassroots anti-Semitism, there’s a knee-jerk reaction to blame the Kremlin. Neat!
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Like Kevin notes here, when the videos from Makhachkala cycled up from regional accounts to more generalist journos/commentators, the vibe shifted to "Look what Putin has done."
I think that's right...but in the most roundabout way possible. 1/n on Dagestan and authoritarianism, and RU politics
I think that's right...but in the most roundabout way possible. 1/n on Dagestan and authoritarianism, and RU politics
The Republican party has been having hard days doing politics at the politics factory
Really hard to have a functioning majority party when, in reality, that party is actually three factions stacked in a trench coat.
Couple of visualizations of where House Republicans are right now. Both show basically the same thing: the moderates stopped Jordan; fringe conservatives are opposing Emmer.
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
The Republican party has been having hard days doing politics at the politics factory
Hello Comparativesky and PoliSkyData 📊 folks!
Posting to see if anyone knows of an archive of the precinct-level results for 🇺🇦 Ukraine's 2019 elections. The official databases are 404-ed, and the Wayback Machine archive is naturally spotty. Appreciate any ideas!
Posting to see if anyone knows of an archive of the precinct-level results for 🇺🇦 Ukraine's 2019 elections. The official databases are 404-ed, and the Wayback Machine archive is naturally spotty. Appreciate any ideas!
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
Hello Comparativesky and PoliSkyData 📊 folks!
Posting to see if anyone knows of an archive of the precinct-level results for 🇺🇦 Ukraine's 2019 elections. The official databases are 404-ed, and the Wayback Machine archive is naturally spotty. Appreciate any ideas!
Posting to see if anyone knows of an archive of the precinct-level results for 🇺🇦 Ukraine's 2019 elections. The official databases are 404-ed, and the Wayback Machine archive is naturally spotty. Appreciate any ideas!
@profmusgrave.bsky.social Hello! Could you add me to the Polisky list at your convenience? Thanks for your help; I found the blog post on adjusting to Bluesky very helpful
November 19, 2024 at 7:17 PM
@profmusgrave.bsky.social Hello! Could you add me to the Polisky list at your convenience? Thanks for your help; I found the blog post on adjusting to Bluesky very helpful