Press release about our ongoing forecast demonstration with a global 3.75-km MPAS:
news.ucar.edu/133040/scien...

Four days before Typhoon Ragasa’s rainbands hit Taiwan, the 3.75-km MPAS predicted >36" of rain in the mountains—while the 15-km parallel run only showed up to 24".

By better resolving Taiwan’s terrain and upslope rainfall, the high-res run shows the value of higher resolution in complex terrain.

While our experimental 3.75-km MPAS forecast did not move the storm as quickly as in reality—placing it farther east and farther from land—it nevertheless captured a super typhoon before the system was even named #Ragasa
👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

Today's tidbit from @ncar-ucar.bsky.social's experimental 3.75-km MPAS forecasts: An active train of African easterly waves.
- a squall line over western Africa
- a tropical storm near 30°W
- another less well defined tropical system near 45°W
👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

MPAS brings Hurricane Kiko close to Hawaii (as a 45-kt tropical storm) in ~4 days creating some interesting topographical flow features
👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...
Variable: 10-m Winds, Domain: Hawaii

🌍 The MMM lab at @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is running experimental realtime forecasts with a global 3.75-km MPAS model.

Goal: Highlight the power of global km-scale models for weather prediction from local to planetary scales, incl. tropical cyclones.

👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

Tired of guessing how many core-hours your MPAS run will devour? My new script (github.com/falkojudt/mp...) helps you to get the numbers.

Trade wind cumulus at work, transporting moisture from the boundary layer into the free troposphere

A beautiful mild late autumn day by Boulder creek.
So, what’s going on meteorologically? #cowx

Great example of a “cyclone train”, where each storm takes a similar path to the previous one.

Big question is: are these “trains” predictable on S2S time scales (weeks in advance)?

Flying is such a privilege. I can spend hours 👀 all the landmarks and the weather from above…
(1) Golden, CO and its table mountains
(2) Berthoud Pass
(3) Rocky🏔️ after the first ❄️, barren South Park in the background (Copper ⛷️ peaks out, too)
(4) Fog moving into dry hills near San Francisco