Sunset over Belfast Lough yesterday evening from Holywood, County Down, Northern Ireland.
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Sunset over Belfast Lough yesterday evening from Holywood, County Down, Northern Ireland.
H5N1 infections in wildfowl and poultry are increasing quickly in North America and Europe as a result of the southward migration of wild birds. With a severe flu season ahead of us, driven by H3N2, the risk of reassortment has significantly increased.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
New flu virus mutation could see ‘worst season in a decade'
Leading flu experts say they will not be surprised if this year's is the worst flu season for a decade.
www.bbc.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:23 AM
H5N1 infections in wildfowl and poultry are increasing quickly in North America and Europe as a result of the southward migration of wild birds. With a severe flu season ahead of us, driven by H3N2, the risk of reassortment has significantly increased.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
1. Rather than, 'Two of the worst winter flu seasons of the past decade have been seen in the last three years, something partly attributed to the *bounce-back of the virus after Covid restrictions were lifted combined with immunity being low*'...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
UK facing long, tough flu season, NHS chiefs warn
Vulnerable urged to come forward for flu jab quickly as virus has come early this year.
www.bbc.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:41 AM
1. Rather than, 'Two of the worst winter flu seasons of the past decade have been seen in the last three years, something partly attributed to the *bounce-back of the virus after Covid restrictions were lifted combined with immunity being low*'...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
The reason for this is multi-factorial, but the fact that Long Covid is not mentioned once is extremely telling. Especially since the article makes an explicit comparison with 2019.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Britain sliding 'into economic crisis' over £85bn sickness bill, ex-John Lewis boss warns
The number of people who are out of work for health reasons has grown by 800,000 since 2019.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 5, 2025 at 11:17 AM
The reason for this is multi-factorial, but the fact that Long Covid is not mentioned once is extremely telling. Especially since the article makes an explicit comparison with 2019.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Considering the vast amount of evidence that Covid can cause serious long-term health problems, mitigating risk of infection is absolutely logical. This should be utterly uncontroversial. But alas, politics, tribalism, and a desire to conform trump logic for most people. Not me.
November 4, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Considering the vast amount of evidence that Covid can cause serious long-term health problems, mitigating risk of infection is absolutely logical. This should be utterly uncontroversial. But alas, politics, tribalism, and a desire to conform trump logic for most people. Not me.
1. My background is in CBRN defense. I was involved in the field long before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.
I used to essentially discount comments on social media - especially this platform - as fringe, not representative of the real world. Sadly, this is no longer the case.
I used to essentially discount comments on social media - especially this platform - as fringe, not representative of the real world. Sadly, this is no longer the case.
November 2, 2025 at 10:28 AM
1. My background is in CBRN defense. I was involved in the field long before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.
I used to essentially discount comments on social media - especially this platform - as fringe, not representative of the real world. Sadly, this is no longer the case.
I used to essentially discount comments on social media - especially this platform - as fringe, not representative of the real world. Sadly, this is no longer the case.
1. Fundamentally, a significant part of what I do is the prediction of both the behaviour of pathogens in the future and our likely collective response to future pathogenic threats. I have an excellent track record in this regard for two main reasons:
November 1, 2025 at 10:37 AM
1. Fundamentally, a significant part of what I do is the prediction of both the behaviour of pathogens in the future and our likely collective response to future pathogenic threats. I have an excellent track record in this regard for two main reasons:
1. The possibility of low-level human to human transmission of H5N1 occurring under the radar is something that has concerned me for several months now.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
www.cidrap.umn.edu
October 31, 2025 at 11:03 AM
1. The possibility of low-level human to human transmission of H5N1 occurring under the radar is something that has concerned me for several months now.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe...
1. I read a study that hinted at this over a year ago. Although the overall individual risk seems to be small, there will be impacts at the population level. The effects of pathogens are an inconvenient truth for MAHA.
Non paywalled link in next post.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
Non paywalled link in next post.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
Covid in pregnancy tied to autism, developmental issues, study says
A study published in the journal Obstetrics and Gynecology analyzed more than 18,100 births in Massachusetts of children born to women who contracted the virus starting in the early months of the pand...
www.washingtonpost.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:39 AM
1. I read a study that hinted at this over a year ago. Although the overall individual risk seems to be small, there will be impacts at the population level. The effects of pathogens are an inconvenient truth for MAHA.
Non paywalled link in next post.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
Non paywalled link in next post.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
I believe that the state and media backed changing of the meaning of the word, 'Covid' to 'the period of time when non-pharmaceutical interventions were in place' rather than the disease itself will, in the future, be seen as the most damaging linguistic trick in history.
October 30, 2025 at 12:39 PM
I believe that the state and media backed changing of the meaning of the word, 'Covid' to 'the period of time when non-pharmaceutical interventions were in place' rather than the disease itself will, in the future, be seen as the most damaging linguistic trick in history.
I try to be professional on this platform but there are times, like now, when it hits me hard on a visceral level that we are in the midst of a catastrophic global public health crisis and it seems, as a species, we've somehow decided that ignoring it is the best plan we've got.
October 28, 2025 at 12:42 AM
I try to be professional on this platform but there are times, like now, when it hits me hard on a visceral level that we are in the midst of a catastrophic global public health crisis and it seems, as a species, we've somehow decided that ignoring it is the best plan we've got.
1. Please read the article (linked in the next post). What galls me is that there is nothing 'astonishing' about this; it was absolutely predictable. The reasons are multi-factorial, but low uptake of flu and Covid vaccines (and very tight eligibility for the latter) are a large part of the problem.
October 26, 2025 at 9:21 AM
1. Please read the article (linked in the next post). What galls me is that there is nothing 'astonishing' about this; it was absolutely predictable. The reasons are multi-factorial, but low uptake of flu and Covid vaccines (and very tight eligibility for the latter) are a large part of the problem.
The pandemic has, and continues to have, significant effects on global politics. I am certain that in the future entire books will be written on this subject, but these effects can be distilled to one concept: the vast majority of people have normalised that which is abnormal.
October 24, 2025 at 12:11 PM
The pandemic has, and continues to have, significant effects on global politics. I am certain that in the future entire books will be written on this subject, but these effects can be distilled to one concept: the vast majority of people have normalised that which is abnormal.
Every time I hear someone who was in government in the UK in 2020 mention lockdown, I immediately remember walking through the streets of Belfast during the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, seeing throngs of people packed in restaurants, and thinking this will kill so many.
October 23, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Every time I hear someone who was in government in the UK in 2020 mention lockdown, I immediately remember walking through the streets of Belfast during the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, seeing throngs of people packed in restaurants, and thinking this will kill so many.
I don't know what pathogen will cause the next pandemic - Disease X - but what I do know is that the combination of the immune dysregulation effect of SARS-CoV-2 and the political legacy of our response to Covid means this pandemic makes us much more vulnerable to the next one.
October 21, 2025 at 10:22 PM
I don't know what pathogen will cause the next pandemic - Disease X - but what I do know is that the combination of the immune dysregulation effect of SARS-CoV-2 and the political legacy of our response to Covid means this pandemic makes us much more vulnerable to the next one.
1. There has obviously been considerable discussion regarding the differences and similarities between HIV / AIDS and SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 on this platform over the past few days.
October 20, 2025 at 11:58 AM
1. There has obviously been considerable discussion regarding the differences and similarities between HIV / AIDS and SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 on this platform over the past few days.
1. I've recently returned from a week-long sojourn on the beautiful North Coast of Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, during my stay there, I had to see two optometrists on an emergency basis (thankfully, I'm fine, just a quite dramatic posterior vitreous detachment).
October 15, 2025 at 9:44 PM
1. I've recently returned from a week-long sojourn on the beautiful North Coast of Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, during my stay there, I had to see two optometrists on an emergency basis (thankfully, I'm fine, just a quite dramatic posterior vitreous detachment).
1. Before 2020, I never, ever remember getting sick being portrayed as a good thing.
"Most people will get one or two respiratory infections every year. In some ways, it's a *good thing* when you are a child or healthy adult".
*my emphasis.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"Most people will get one or two respiratory infections every year. In some ways, it's a *good thing* when you are a child or healthy adult".
*my emphasis.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Common cold, flu, Covid: Why is Britain so sick right now?
Why coughs and colds seem to be taking hold currently - and what you can do to protect yourself.
www.bbc.com
October 12, 2025 at 7:31 AM
1. Before 2020, I never, ever remember getting sick being portrayed as a good thing.
"Most people will get one or two respiratory infections every year. In some ways, it's a *good thing* when you are a child or healthy adult".
*my emphasis.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"Most people will get one or two respiratory infections every year. In some ways, it's a *good thing* when you are a child or healthy adult".
*my emphasis.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
This is why one of my mantras is 'politics itself can be a biological risk'. Wildfowl migration has already begun in North America, which will mean a significant increase in H5N1 infections in poultry, dairy cattle and humans. Yet politics is dismantling the defence.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
Trump Administration Lays Off Dozens of C.D.C. Officials
www.nytimes.com
October 11, 2025 at 9:23 AM
This is why one of my mantras is 'politics itself can be a biological risk'. Wildfowl migration has already begun in North America, which will mean a significant increase in H5N1 infections in poultry, dairy cattle and humans. Yet politics is dismantling the defence.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
I'm old enough to remember when almost everyone smoked, knowing just how bad smoking was for health. A lot of people still drink well above recommended weekly limits, even though they are not physically dependent on alcohol. I think about this a lot when I think about Covid.
October 10, 2025 at 5:18 PM
I'm old enough to remember when almost everyone smoked, knowing just how bad smoking was for health. A lot of people still drink well above recommended weekly limits, even though they are not physically dependent on alcohol. I think about this a lot when I think about Covid.
The coastal path from Dunseverick Castle to the Giant's Causeway earlier this afternoon. One of my favourite places on Earth.
October 8, 2025 at 5:18 PM
The coastal path from Dunseverick Castle to the Giant's Causeway earlier this afternoon. One of my favourite places on Earth.
1. I've had a surprising number of conversations about Covid-19 over the past week or so, all sparked by the fact that I was, as always, wearing an FFP2 respirator. People in healthcare facilities, taxi drivers, people on trains and buses.
October 8, 2025 at 9:33 AM
1. I've had a surprising number of conversations about Covid-19 over the past week or so, all sparked by the fact that I was, as always, wearing an FFP2 respirator. People in healthcare facilities, taxi drivers, people on trains and buses.
Looking out on the Atlantic Ocean from West Strand, Portrush. From the early days of the pandemic, the rugged coastline between here and Ballycastle has been my sanctuary. The photograph is not filtered; the concrete-like, flat, monotone light is typical of October here.
October 6, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Looking out on the Atlantic Ocean from West Strand, Portrush. From the early days of the pandemic, the rugged coastline between here and Ballycastle has been my sanctuary. The photograph is not filtered; the concrete-like, flat, monotone light is typical of October here.
Vaccination is highly effective at preventing hospitalisation for acute Covid-19. The NHS is under unprecedented pressure. A sensible, evidence-based policy decision would thus be to significantly widen eligibility for free Covid-19 vaccination.
inews.co.uk/news/health/...
inews.co.uk/news/health/...
Covid hospitalisations up by 37% - highest in nearly a year
Waning immunity from jabs and prior infections - together with rising cases as children go back to school and the weather cools - are thought to be behind the rise in hospitalisations
inews.co.uk
September 29, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Vaccination is highly effective at preventing hospitalisation for acute Covid-19. The NHS is under unprecedented pressure. A sensible, evidence-based policy decision would thus be to significantly widen eligibility for free Covid-19 vaccination.
inews.co.uk/news/health/...
inews.co.uk/news/health/...