Bob Hayes
@bobhayes.bsky.social
Yank in London who trained myself to say "football." Analytics professional and hobbyist. Used to write things, many of which are still relevant, here: https://fromthebyline.substack.com/
Arsenal conceding 3 is going to be a red herring in the reaction to this; the problem is more in the inability to create when needing to, plus some poor sloppiness in minutes ~30-50.
January 25, 2026 at 6:29 PM
Arsenal conceding 3 is going to be a red herring in the reaction to this; the problem is more in the inability to create when needing to, plus some poor sloppiness in minutes ~30-50.
I was hoping this was a good opportunity for Eze to do the thing where he does something (for the first time since November) but nope, more of the same
January 25, 2026 at 6:09 PM
I was hoping this was a good opportunity for Eze to do the thing where he does something (for the first time since November) but nope, more of the same
The frequency at which I oscillate between “Arsenal are the best team in Europe and are on their way to a historically special season” and “Arsenal aren’t very good” is troubling
January 25, 2026 at 5:53 PM
The frequency at which I oscillate between “Arsenal are the best team in Europe and are on their way to a historically special season” and “Arsenal aren’t very good” is troubling
Can’t wait for this lad to score the winner
January 13, 2026 at 7:05 PM
Can’t wait for this lad to score the winner
That’s the fewest possible games for Manchester United in a season, confirmed
No UEFA + elimination in their first game in both domestic cups
No UEFA + elimination in their first game in both domestic cups
January 11, 2026 at 6:24 PM
That’s the fewest possible games for Manchester United in a season, confirmed
No UEFA + elimination in their first game in both domestic cups
No UEFA + elimination in their first game in both domestic cups
Quietly, not only are all 3 relegation spots quite possibly already locked in, we might already have our final top 5.
I’ll consult the models tomorrow but think the current bottom 3 may now have joint probability >50% to go down. I doubt we are there with the top 5 but don’t think it’s far off.
I’ll consult the models tomorrow but think the current bottom 3 may now have joint probability >50% to go down. I doubt we are there with the top 5 but don’t think it’s far off.
January 6, 2026 at 9:57 PM
Quietly, not only are all 3 relegation spots quite possibly already locked in, we might already have our final top 5.
I’ll consult the models tomorrow but think the current bottom 3 may now have joint probability >50% to go down. I doubt we are there with the top 5 but don’t think it’s far off.
I’ll consult the models tomorrow but think the current bottom 3 may now have joint probability >50% to go down. I doubt we are there with the top 5 but don’t think it’s far off.
Rotated every player they reasonably could, put up 3.3 xG / 3.1 xGOT, conceded on the only shot on target.
I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.
I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.
December 23, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Rotated every player they reasonably could, put up 3.3 xG / 3.1 xGOT, conceded on the only shot on target.
I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.
I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.
Martinelli is absolutely cooking. Arsenal up to 1.5 xG, need to get one in the net.
December 23, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Martinelli is absolutely cooking. Arsenal up to 1.5 xG, need to get one in the net.
The NFL quietly gradually moving toward the large majority of teams having domes -- including in geographies that do not remotely need them -- is a bummer.
Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.
Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.
December 22, 2025 at 9:56 PM
The NFL quietly gradually moving toward the large majority of teams having domes -- including in geographies that do not remotely need them -- is a bummer.
Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.
Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.
The comparative npxG in Forest-Spurs and Palace-City are basically identical, and both games are 3-0 in opposite directions
December 14, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The comparative npxG in Forest-Spurs and Palace-City are basically identical, and both games are 3-0 in opposite directions
5 total shots in over an hour in Sunderland
December 14, 2025 at 3:24 PM
5 total shots in over an hour in Sunderland
Arsenal’s key issue today was Gyökeres, Martinelli, Eze all seem to need transition to be effective, and it was a bus-park game
…but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them
…but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them
December 13, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Arsenal’s key issue today was Gyökeres, Martinelli, Eze all seem to need transition to be effective, and it was a bus-park game
…but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them
…but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them
Gotta figure out how to get Eze doing anything useful that’s not scoring a hat trick against Tottenham
December 13, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Gotta figure out how to get Eze doing anything useful that’s not scoring a hat trick against Tottenham
Kinda feels like all the attackers on the bench are better fits for this match than all the ones playing. I bet we will see changes quickly.
December 13, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Kinda feels like all the attackers on the bench are better fits for this match than all the ones playing. I bet we will see changes quickly.
Playing in a winning game state in Bruges with a clearly weaker opponent trying to play in transition is the archetypal Gyökeres use case… and he did nothing
December 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Playing in a winning game state in Bruges with a clearly weaker opponent trying to play in transition is the archetypal Gyökeres use case… and he did nothing
The contrast in take-on ability between Madueke and Martinelli is comical.
Martinelli has just lost it the last couple seasons, especially against a set defense.
Martinelli has just lost it the last couple seasons, especially against a set defense.
December 10, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The contrast in take-on ability between Madueke and Martinelli is comical.
Martinelli has just lost it the last couple seasons, especially against a set defense.
Martinelli has just lost it the last couple seasons, especially against a set defense.
Insane how much less cool (…and good) Isak is than last season
December 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Insane how much less cool (…and good) Isak is than last season
Prepare thyself for this to become a norm (even in freezing weather) with an ad break each time
News: Every 2026 World Cup match will feature two "hydration breaks," no matter the weather.
Each half will pause for exactly three minutes midway through.
It's a player welfare measure. It also has sporting & commercial implications.
More @theathleticfc.bsky.social:
Each half will pause for exactly three minutes midway through.
It's a player welfare measure. It also has sporting & commercial implications.
More @theathleticfc.bsky.social:
2026 World Cup to feature three-minute hydration breaks in every half throughout tournament
Every game will pause for three minutes in the middle of each half, which will essentially split the match into quarters.
www.nytimes.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Prepare thyself for this to become a norm (even in freezing weather) with an ad break each time
Red Bull should have pit Verstappen in that window there where he still would have come out ahead of Piastri.
It’s absolutely worth slightly decreasing race win odds to up the variance in the WDC race and ultimately increase WDC odds.
It’s absolutely worth slightly decreasing race win odds to up the variance in the WDC race and ultimately increase WDC odds.
December 7, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Red Bull should have pit Verstappen in that window there where he still would have come out ahead of Piastri.
It’s absolutely worth slightly decreasing race win odds to up the variance in the WDC race and ultimately increase WDC odds.
It’s absolutely worth slightly decreasing race win odds to up the variance in the WDC race and ultimately increase WDC odds.
On both sides of the back 4, Arsenal are playing guys who could plausibly play CB or FB.
I’d love to see them try out some fluid rotational stuff in possession (though unfortunately they have basically no time on the training pitch to game that out).
I’d love to see them try out some fluid rotational stuff in possession (though unfortunately they have basically no time on the training pitch to game that out).
December 6, 2025 at 11:18 AM
On both sides of the back 4, Arsenal are playing guys who could plausibly play CB or FB.
I’d love to see them try out some fluid rotational stuff in possession (though unfortunately they have basically no time on the training pitch to game that out).
I’d love to see them try out some fluid rotational stuff in possession (though unfortunately they have basically no time on the training pitch to game that out).
[Looking at Group A:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group B:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group C:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group D:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group E:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group F:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group G:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group B:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group C:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group D:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group E:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group F:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group G:] that’s a weak group
December 6, 2025 at 9:01 AM
[Looking at Group A:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group B:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group C:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group D:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group E:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group F:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group G:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group B:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group C:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group D:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group E:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group F:] that’s a weak group
[Looking at Group G:] that’s a weak group
This second half is exactly the product of one of these teams playing twice a week for the first time in their careers with no depth and the other a bunch of guys being able to go full gas for all 90 minutes every game.
November 30, 2025 at 1:49 PM
This second half is exactly the product of one of these teams playing twice a week for the first time in their careers with no depth and the other a bunch of guys being able to go full gas for all 90 minutes every game.
Is 2 shots for 0.07 xG in a half when you’ve been desperately chasing a goal the whole time at home against a bad team good?
November 29, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Is 2 shots for 0.07 xG in a half when you’ve been desperately chasing a goal the whole time at home against a bad team good?
Arsenal hath seized the European throne
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
November 26, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Arsenal hath seized the European throne
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence
…with Merino once again playing striker and Ødegaard finally gracing the grass with his presence