Bert Zwart
@bertzwart.bsky.social
prof @ CWI & TU/e
stochastic OR - probability - rare events - energy systems
father - husband - has-been draughtsplayer - wannabe runner - girevik
stochastic OR - probability - rare events - energy systems
father - husband - has-been draughtsplayer - wannabe runner - girevik
How do you handle outliers caused by heavy tails in an optimal way when you want to estimate (but not overestimate) the mean of a nonnegative random variable?
With Bart van Parys, we answer this question in our preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2503.21421
With Bart van Parys, we answer this question in our preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2503.21421
Robust Mean Estimation for Optimization: The Impact of Heavy Tails
We consider the problem of constructing a least conservative estimator of the expected value $μ$ of a non-negative heavy-tailed random variable. We require that the probability of overestimating the e...
arxiv.org
March 28, 2025 at 6:14 AM
How do you handle outliers caused by heavy tails in an optimal way when you want to estimate (but not overestimate) the mean of a nonnegative random variable?
With Bart van Parys, we answer this question in our preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2503.21421
With Bart van Parys, we answer this question in our preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2503.21421
Reposted by Bert Zwart
We didn’t know then that it had all been agreed in advance in the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
Today, we have no excuse for such naivety. It’s a safe bet that the Trump-Putin Pact already exists—and we should act accordingly.🧵14/14
Today, we have no excuse for such naivety. It’s a safe bet that the Trump-Putin Pact already exists—and we should act accordingly.🧵14/14
March 6, 2025 at 5:07 PM
We didn’t know then that it had all been agreed in advance in the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
Today, we have no excuse for such naivety. It’s a safe bet that the Trump-Putin Pact already exists—and we should act accordingly.🧵14/14
Today, we have no excuse for such naivety. It’s a safe bet that the Trump-Putin Pact already exists—and we should act accordingly.🧵14/14
Reposted by Bert Zwart
The Trump-Putin Pact already exists, and we should act accordingly. There are some things we will never change with nice words or smart clothing. If you are worried about those things, you should understand where Trump's tactics come from. From Russia.
A thread. 🧵1/14
A thread. 🧵1/14
March 6, 2025 at 5:07 PM
The Trump-Putin Pact already exists, and we should act accordingly. There are some things we will never change with nice words or smart clothing. If you are worried about those things, you should understand where Trump's tactics come from. From Russia.
A thread. 🧵1/14
A thread. 🧵1/14
Reposted by Bert Zwart
Apart from the bromance talk about him and Putin having been through so much together, it’s 100% clear after today where Trump’s loyalties lie. He attacked Ukraine for defending itself, claiming it (not Russia!) is “risking WW III”. Obscene.
February 28, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Apart from the bromance talk about him and Putin having been through so much together, it’s 100% clear after today where Trump’s loyalties lie. He attacked Ukraine for defending itself, claiming it (not Russia!) is “risking WW III”. Obscene.
Reposted by Bert Zwart
No, Trump has destroyed America in the eyes of the world.
February 28, 2025 at 7:18 PM
No, Trump has destroyed America in the eyes of the world.
In joint work arxiv.org/abs/2502.13944 with Agnieska Janicka, Fiona Sloothaak and Maria Vlasiou, we provide a mathematical explanation of the empirical finding that congestion caused by traffic jams follows a Pareto law. We also give further empirical evidence using Dutch data. 1/4
arxiv.org
February 20, 2025 at 6:06 AM
In joint work arxiv.org/abs/2502.13944 with Agnieska Janicka, Fiona Sloothaak and Maria Vlasiou, we provide a mathematical explanation of the empirical finding that congestion caused by traffic jams follows a Pareto law. We also give further empirical evidence using Dutch data. 1/4
Reposted by Bert Zwart
Er zijn geen 'vredesonderhandelingen'. Wat er gebeurt, is dat de Russische oorlog tegen Oekraïne nu wordt gesteund door de president van de Verenigde Staten.
February 19, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Er zijn geen 'vredesonderhandelingen'. Wat er gebeurt, is dat de Russische oorlog tegen Oekraïne nu wordt gesteund door de president van de Verenigde Staten.
Reposted by Bert Zwart
The legality (not wisdom) of putting European private data on US clouds hinges on the availability of the US Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board. Trump neutered this board, and the European parliament has taken notice & asked the European Commission what they think:
February 19, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The legality (not wisdom) of putting European private data on US clouds hinges on the availability of the US Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board. Trump neutered this board, and the European parliament has taken notice & asked the European Commission what they think:
Reposted by Bert Zwart
Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0
February 18, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0
Reposted by Bert Zwart
Gevaarlijke combinatie van populisme en wensdenken.
Debat over de eerst wet van Faber: over kennismigranten.
Dit wetsvoorstel zet de deur open voor grote groepen en @NwSocContract doet vijf voorstellen om dit alleen voor bepaalde groepen te doen. Wij dienen daarvoor wijzigingsvoorstellen in om de wet te wijzigen.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViKz...
Dit wetsvoorstel zet de deur open voor grote groepen en @NwSocContract doet vijf voorstellen om dit alleen voor bepaalde groepen te doen. Wij dienen daarvoor wijzigingsvoorstellen in om de wet te wijzigen.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViKz...
Bijdrage Pieter Omtzigt tijdens debat over Wijziging van de Vreemdelingenwet 2000
YouTube video by Nieuw Sociaal Contract
www.youtube.com
February 17, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Gevaarlijke combinatie van populisme en wensdenken.
Mijn oudste bespreekt vandaag een boek van @ionica.mathstodon.xyz.ap.brid.gy op school in knutselvorm
January 16, 2025 at 6:12 AM
Mijn oudste bespreekt vandaag een boek van @ionica.mathstodon.xyz.ap.brid.gy op school in knutselvorm
Stelselmatige geweldigdadigheden met een racistisch motief in de achtertuin van @omtzigt.bsky.social
tegen buitenlandse kenniswerkers
tegen buitenlandse kenniswerkers
I just realised/heard that there is a big problem with Dutch teenagers on fat bikes harassing expats in Twente. They have physically attacked one of my direct colleagues for the second time in 3,5 months. The colleague decided to resign and turn back to his home country with a.o. a broken nose. 1/
December 13, 2024 at 8:10 PM
Stelselmatige geweldigdadigheden met een racistisch motief in de achtertuin van @omtzigt.bsky.social
tegen buitenlandse kenniswerkers
tegen buitenlandse kenniswerkers
In our new preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2411.11093 we illustrate the potential of using fluctuations in uncertainty to keep our grid safe at lower costs. We focus on dimensioning FCR-N reserves in the Nordic grid, combining real-life frequency data and a diffusion model for the frequency.
arxiv.org/abs/2411.11093 we illustrate the potential of using fluctuations in uncertainty to keep our grid safe at lower costs. We focus on dimensioning FCR-N reserves in the Nordic grid, combining real-life frequency data and a diffusion model for the frequency.
Dynamic Dimensioning of Frequency Containment Reserves: The Case of the Nordic Grid
One of the main responsibilities of a Transmission System Operator (TSO) operating an electric grid is to maintain a designated frequency (e.g., 50 Hz in Europe). To achieve this, TSOs have created se...
arxiv.org
November 19, 2024 at 6:20 AM
In our new preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2411.11093 we illustrate the potential of using fluctuations in uncertainty to keep our grid safe at lower costs. We focus on dimensioning FCR-N reserves in the Nordic grid, combining real-life frequency data and a diffusion model for the frequency.
arxiv.org/abs/2411.11093 we illustrate the potential of using fluctuations in uncertainty to keep our grid safe at lower costs. We focus on dimensioning FCR-N reserves in the Nordic grid, combining real-life frequency data and a diffusion model for the frequency.
I should post something to show it's me.
Like on the other platform, I'll post on whatever topic interests me.
I just went out for a run, the first after having corona. My heart rate was 15 beats higher than normal - I'm still happy to be back at it.
Like on the other platform, I'll post on whatever topic interests me.
I just went out for a run, the first after having corona. My heart rate was 15 beats higher than normal - I'm still happy to be back at it.
November 13, 2024 at 3:12 PM
I should post something to show it's me.
Like on the other platform, I'll post on whatever topic interests me.
I just went out for a run, the first after having corona. My heart rate was 15 beats higher than normal - I'm still happy to be back at it.
Like on the other platform, I'll post on whatever topic interests me.
I just went out for a run, the first after having corona. My heart rate was 15 beats higher than normal - I'm still happy to be back at it.