The Orca Fin
@axbkol.bsky.social
Former Fortune 500 executive with three decades of experience in technology, insurance, and financial markets. https://orcafin.beehiiv.com/
We Gen X have failed.
September 14, 2025 at 10:32 AM
We Gen X have failed.
Some ABS talk and an interesting long-term portfolio idea. No paywall. And people think I only do bearish stuff... SMH. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/where-is-t...
This year, a sampling of bullish calls
$UBER -> 60 to 90
$TOST -> 30 to 40
$RDDT -> 95 to 256
Bearish home runs? $DUOL, $WING, more
This year, a sampling of bullish calls
$UBER -> 60 to 90
$TOST -> 30 to 40
$RDDT -> 95 to 256
Bearish home runs? $DUOL, $WING, more
Where is the Beef?
Tyson Foods and a little ABS talk.
orcafin.beehiiv.com
September 14, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Some ABS talk and an interesting long-term portfolio idea. No paywall. And people think I only do bearish stuff... SMH. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/where-is-t...
This year, a sampling of bullish calls
$UBER -> 60 to 90
$TOST -> 30 to 40
$RDDT -> 95 to 256
Bearish home runs? $DUOL, $WING, more
This year, a sampling of bullish calls
$UBER -> 60 to 90
$TOST -> 30 to 40
$RDDT -> 95 to 256
Bearish home runs? $DUOL, $WING, more
Was talking to a few fellow publishers. They said, "People have started to intentionally put in typos and errors in their articles to mess up the AI training." One tech guy said, "They do clean up the data, you know." I said, "That requires more compute, no?"
September 14, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Was talking to a few fellow publishers. They said, "People have started to intentionally put in typos and errors in their articles to mess up the AI training." One tech guy said, "They do clean up the data, you know." I said, "That requires more compute, no?"
When a company uses adjusted EBITDA, that in itself is beyond BS, after all, the great Charlie Munger used to call EBITDA BS earnings. Now imagine a company using adjusted FCF all the time, along with everything adjusted. An example of that, my friends, is $AN.
September 12, 2025 at 3:23 PM
When a company uses adjusted EBITDA, that in itself is beyond BS, after all, the great Charlie Munger used to call EBITDA BS earnings. Now imagine a company using adjusted FCF all the time, along with everything adjusted. An example of that, my friends, is $AN.
So nice of them. A stake and oversight, too.
September 11, 2025 at 9:39 PM
So nice of them. A stake and oversight, too.
Ere thou goest read this which I have beneth the lid of my token box. It applies to the borrower and the lender: Better a little caution than a great regret. - From the book, The Richest Man in Babylon.
September 11, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Ere thou goest read this which I have beneth the lid of my token box. It applies to the borrower and the lender: Better a little caution than a great regret. - From the book, The Richest Man in Babylon.
Laughing my arse off here seeing $CVNA getting dumped, albeit a little, due to the whole ABS thingy, and $AN up for the day, albeit having lost the highs of the day. Efficient Market Hypothesis is bunkum because knowledge and ability are asymmetric. Reflexivity drives markets.
September 11, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Laughing my arse off here seeing $CVNA getting dumped, albeit a little, due to the whole ABS thingy, and $AN up for the day, albeit having lost the highs of the day. Efficient Market Hypothesis is bunkum because knowledge and ability are asymmetric. Reflexivity drives markets.
Psst ... long $INDA. Why? Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalization goes into effect on the 22nd. A massive consumption boost is expected. Trump and Modi are expected to talk soon. Trade deal and GOD CANDLE. Take it for what it is worth.
September 11, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Psst ... long $INDA. Why? Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalization goes into effect on the 22nd. A massive consumption boost is expected. Trump and Modi are expected to talk soon. Trade deal and GOD CANDLE. Take it for what it is worth.
My banger long call for the year: $RDDT. It was not a medium term call but a buy and hold call. Up 174% since April 3. (Article in reply. It is free... now imagine how good the paid ones are.)
September 11, 2025 at 2:04 PM
My banger long call for the year: $RDDT. It was not a medium term call but a buy and hold call. Up 174% since April 3. (Article in reply. It is free... now imagine how good the paid ones are.)
$WING might soon ban me from their restaurants. Here we go again... LOLz. (Article from August in the replies. It is free.)
September 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
$WING might soon ban me from their restaurants. Here we go again... LOLz. (Article from August in the replies. It is free.)
The EU just gave Trump the middle finger.
September 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
The EU just gave Trump the middle finger.
Here is another reason why Trump wants some of the Russian oil off the market. Say it slowly: Caught between a rock and a hard place.
September 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Here is another reason why Trump wants some of the Russian oil off the market. Say it slowly: Caught between a rock and a hard place.
If only Buffett had bought $ORCL in 2020 instead of mucking around with $SNOW in 2020 and dumping it in August 2024, what could have been. Before any smart arse kid asks, here is the screenshot of what I said in September 2024 on my blog.
September 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
If only Buffett had bought $ORCL in 2020 instead of mucking around with $SNOW in 2020 and dumping it in August 2024, what could have been. Before any smart arse kid asks, here is the screenshot of what I said in September 2024 on my blog.
If only Buffett had bought $ORCL in 2020 instead of mucking around with $SNOW in 2020 and dumping it in August 2024, what could have been. Before any smart arse kid asks, here is the screenshot of what I said in September 2024 on my blog.
September 10, 2025 at 3:48 PM
If only Buffett had bought $ORCL in 2020 instead of mucking around with $SNOW in 2020 and dumping it in August 2024, what could have been. Before any smart arse kid asks, here is the screenshot of what I said in September 2024 on my blog.
Reposted by The Orca Fin
Prediction markets rate it close to a coin flip as to whether the Supreme Court will rule most of Trump's tariffs as (un)constitutional.
My $0.02: Don't take legal advice from an economist, but can't see a credible reading that says they're legal.
polymarket.com/event/will-t...
My $0.02: Don't take legal advice from an economist, but can't see a credible reading that says they're legal.
polymarket.com/event/will-t...
September 9, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Prediction markets rate it close to a coin flip as to whether the Supreme Court will rule most of Trump's tariffs as (un)constitutional.
My $0.02: Don't take legal advice from an economist, but can't see a credible reading that says they're legal.
polymarket.com/event/will-t...
My $0.02: Don't take legal advice from an economist, but can't see a credible reading that says they're legal.
polymarket.com/event/will-t...
When the CEOs, who were recently at the roundtable with Trump, tell him, "Mr. President, we can create millions of more jobs at home if you remove the Section 232 tariffs, watch how fast those tariffs get dropped."
Now, the art of it all will be timing it right.
Now, the art of it all will be timing it right.
September 10, 2025 at 12:41 AM
When the CEOs, who were recently at the roundtable with Trump, tell him, "Mr. President, we can create millions of more jobs at home if you remove the Section 232 tariffs, watch how fast those tariffs get dropped."
Now, the art of it all will be timing it right.
Now, the art of it all will be timing it right.
Oh, man, look what I found in one of my articles on my blog. Pay attention to the date: August 9, 2024. In the context of the BLS's revision, I chuckled at my rant.
September 9, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Oh, man, look what I found in one of my articles on my blog. Pay attention to the date: August 9, 2024. In the context of the BLS's revision, I chuckled at my rant.
Oh, I understand there will be a fight here between the bulls and the bears. The bulls got short-term support; those who know the whole story are sitting back and watching the fun. The support will eventually fail to hold. When will it fail? I have no idea.
September 9, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Oh, I understand there will be a fight here between the bulls and the bears. The bulls got short-term support; those who know the whole story are sitting back and watching the fun. The support will eventually fail to hold. When will it fail? I have no idea.
Here is something to think about. Bush imposed tariffs on steel imports in 2002 to protect the US steel industry, but lifted them in December 2003 after just 18 months.
The whole metal space went crazy. China was gobbling everything up; who or who all could it be this time? 🤔
The whole metal space went crazy. China was gobbling everything up; who or who all could it be this time? 🤔
September 9, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Here is something to think about. Bush imposed tariffs on steel imports in 2002 to protect the US steel industry, but lifted them in December 2003 after just 18 months.
The whole metal space went crazy. China was gobbling everything up; who or who all could it be this time? 🤔
The whole metal space went crazy. China was gobbling everything up; who or who all could it be this time? 🤔
Most people with any grey matter knew the employment situation was bad. Why bother with the indices? Just go short the consumer discretionary stuff. Easiest ones? Restaurants, Specialty Retail, ... You could have made 50%+ shorting those. You don't believe me? Just read my blog.
September 9, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Most people with any grey matter knew the employment situation was bad. Why bother with the indices? Just go short the consumer discretionary stuff. Easiest ones? Restaurants, Specialty Retail, ... You could have made 50%+ shorting those. You don't believe me? Just read my blog.
Now that everybody is talking about gold, it is time for me to start talking about the Baltic Dry Index.
September 9, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Now that everybody is talking about gold, it is time for me to start talking about the Baltic Dry Index.
Small thread on WPM. You know why they will have a blowout quarter? Look at their cost basis for gold, and it hasn't changed much. (Charts and tables are from the end of January when WPM was trading at ~63, now ~106). No, they are not a miner, but a streamer. 1/3
September 8, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Small thread on WPM. You know why they will have a blowout quarter? Look at their cost basis for gold, and it hasn't changed much. (Charts and tables are from the end of January when WPM was trading at ~63, now ~106). No, they are not a miner, but a streamer. 1/3
Silver bulls, please send a thank note to the White House. As there are growing fears of tariffs on silver, NY silver futures are trading at $0.70 premium to London. This is pushing people to ship to the US to capture the premium and also increasing borrowing costs in London.
September 8, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Silver bulls, please send a thank note to the White House. As there are growing fears of tariffs on silver, NY silver futures are trading at $0.70 premium to London. This is pushing people to ship to the US to capture the premium and also increasing borrowing costs in London.
LG Energy has tentatively decided to postpone the start of its EV battery plant with Hyundai in Georgia. Hyundai has banned all US trips for its staff. - Korea Economic Daily.
September 8, 2025 at 9:47 AM
LG Energy has tentatively decided to postpone the start of its EV battery plant with Hyundai in Georgia. Hyundai has banned all US trips for its staff. - Korea Economic Daily.
Seasonally, the best period for Class 8 Truck Orders is September to December. We will now get to know how the freight industry is really doing. (Source for graph: FTR Transportation Intelligence).
September 8, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Seasonally, the best period for Class 8 Truck Orders is September to December. We will now get to know how the freight industry is really doing. (Source for graph: FTR Transportation Intelligence).