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Aurora Forecast
@auroraforecast.bsky.social
44 followers 8 following 16 posts
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Reposted by Aurora Forecast
solarham.bsky.social
A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect beginning January 4th and into the 5th. A solar wind stream flowing from a pair of coronal holes is expected to reach Earth. SolarHam.com
January 3, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-01-02T14:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Jan 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale G4). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 02-Jan 04 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 02-Jan 04 2025 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 2.67 2.33 3.33 06-09UT 3.33 1.33 2.67 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 1.33 2.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 1.00 2.00 15-18UT 4.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.67 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 1.67 Rationale: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected for the rest of the UTC day on 02 Jan as CME activity persists. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2025 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 S1 or greater 10% 10% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event will persist through 03 Jan given the current total disk potential. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 01 2025 1817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2025 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 R1-R2 75% 75% 70% R3 or greater 10% 10% 5% Rationale: M-class flares are expected (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for isolated X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 03 Jan, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3936. M-class flares are likely on 04 Jan as Region 3936 rotates further beyond the NW limb. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
January 2, 2025 at 2:04 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Conditions are currently looking solid for our European friends with the Hemispheric Power Index touching 50. Hopefully this is just the start of the solar storm impact (for aurora chasers) and we'll see an expansion through tonight across North America. 🙏

auroraforecast.com/Aurora-Geek/
December 31, 2024 at 6:20 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
solarham.bsky.social
The partial halo CME associated with the eruption in the SE on December 29th swept past Earth. The solar wind speed increased from 350 km/s to near 475 km/s while the Bz/IMF component continues to fluctuate. A geomagnetic storm warning is now in effect. More updates to follow whenever necessary.
December 31, 2024 at 4:48 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
snhwx.bsky.social
It was mostly yapping and ranting, but I did my first ever Youtube live stream to talk about space weather and the incoming solar storms. There will be plenty more where this one came from, but for now, the recording can be found on my channel: www.youtube.com/live/duuOJuP... ☀️
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December 31, 2024 at 2:39 AM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
We're looking for increased aurora activity in time for a New Year's eve light show. Even the lower-latitude probabilities are looking great! :D

Auroraforecast.com
Aurora Forecast Service - Northern Lights Predictions
Discover the latest aurora borealis (northern lights) forecasts for Northern skies where aurora is common with our updated Aurora Forecast Engine. Stay informed about the best times to witness the stunning northern lights using precise data to make current aurora predictions.
Auroraforecast.com
December 31, 2024 at 1:11 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Aurora delivered last night, in higher latitudes and more anticipated for tonight and potentially into the weekend. So far we aren't seeing much activity this evening... so we wait. 🙏
December 26, 2024 at 1:06 AM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
We're back with favorable forecast for Christmas and Boxing day auroras.
Aurora Geek - Live Data Dashboard
Access live data used in the prediction and analysis of current aurora forecasts, localized for your area.
auroraforecast.com
December 25, 2024 at 8:37 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
snhwx.bsky.social
The only red and green lights I want ❤️💚
December 25, 2024 at 6:23 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
We are also on Facebook.

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November 30, 2024 at 1:36 AM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
aurora.nws-bot.us Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · Nov 30
Aurora Forecast Update for 2024-11-30T01:30:04Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 30 0123 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2503 Issue Time: 2024 Nov 30 0124 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 30 0123 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Nov 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2024 Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 3.67 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.00 1.67 1.67 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 2.33 09-12UT 2.33 1.33 2.33 12-15UT 1.67 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 1.00 1.33 2.00 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2024 Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 30 Nov-02 Dec. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2024 Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 30 Nov-02 Dec. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 30, 2024 at 1:34 AM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Geomagnetic storm has arrived, too late for last night but hopefully we'll get some better chances further south tonight.
November 29, 2024 at 8:43 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
We don't know when or even if the anticipated aurora event will hit us. So far, I have not seen anything in the data to get excited over. Will keep checking. #Aurora 🙏
November 29, 2024 at 1:58 AM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
We'll be watching the incoming solar data closely over the next 24 to 48 hours for evidence of the arrival / potential for a predicted G1/G2 storming event. This one could miss us OR deliver a great show. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Aurora Geek - Live Data Dashboard
Access live data used in the prediction and analysis of current aurora forecasts, localized for your area.
auroraforecast.com
November 28, 2024 at 10:13 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
snhwx.bsky.social
Who needs SDO when we have GOES SUVI and GONG! 😉

But in all seriousness, hoping for a speedy recovery for JSOC/Stanford University to resume SDO processing. ☀️
November 27, 2024 at 10:26 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
solarham.bsky.social
A minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch was added beginning November 28th when a CME observed leaving the Sun on Monday is predicted to pass close to Earth. More updates in the days ahead.
November 26, 2024 at 6:29 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Ever look at a positively optimistic aurora forecast, get geared up and go out to some secluded area, only to be disappointed? Yeah, us too!
Why do Aurora Forecasts Fail?
Why Aurora Forecasts Fail: The Truth Behind Northern Lights Predictions
auroraforecast.com
November 25, 2024 at 4:52 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Unfortunately the increased activity level has not sustained and hopes are fading for us on the west coast. Always a chance things could bounce back. 🙏
November 25, 2024 at 4:26 AM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Seeing a nice uptick in activity just in time for night across North America. 🤞
Aurora Geek - Live Data Dashboard
Access live data used in the prediction and analysis of current aurora forecasts, localized for your area.
auroraforecast.com
November 25, 2024 at 12:47 AM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
solarham.bsky.social
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been pointing south the past few hours (-8nT peak). Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) is being observed at higher latitudes. SolarHam.com
November 24, 2024 at 11:58 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
snhwx.bsky.social
Happy Sunday from the Sun! ☀️

We have quite a few active regions spread across the disk, but based on complexity, AR3906 has the highest probability for producing a notable flare (25% for M-class & 5% for X-class). For now, we watch and wait!
November 24, 2024 at 5:50 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
We love magnetometers! 🥰
anelel.bsky.social Amoré 🇿🇦 @anelel.bsky.social · Nov 22
SANSA and the Ethiopean SSGI have installed a magnetometer station in Ethiopia, currently the only dual scalar/vector magnetometer station on the magnetic dip equator in the African sector. This will enable African space scientists to measure the local activity of #geomagnetic storms. #SpaceWeather
November 23, 2024 at 8:37 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
poemhour.bsky.social
November 22, 2024 at 12:53 PM
Reposted by Aurora Forecast
jencompton.bsky.social
Good morning!☀️ Took this photo of the aurora borealis a few weeks ago. #KawarthaLakes #Ontario #Photography #auroraborealis
November 22, 2024 at 12:28 PM
auroraforecast.bsky.social
Hello BlueSky, auroraforecast.com officially on board. :D
Aurora Forecast Service - Northern Lights Predictions
Discover the latest aurora borealis (northern lights) forecasts for Northern skies where aurora is common with our updated Aurora Forecast Engine. Stay informed about the best times to witness the stu...
auroraforecast.com
November 22, 2024 at 9:40 PM