Arman Pili
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armanpili.bsky.social
Arman Pili
@armanpili.bsky.social

๐Ÿง‘๐Ÿฝโ€๐Ÿ”ฌ PostDoc @fletcher.ecology CambridgeU | ๐ŸŽ“ MonashU'24 | ๐Ÿ“š Conservation Informatics | Fellow IPBES GA2 | JrAE J Appl Ecol | Explorer NatGeo | ๐ŸŽฒ Brimming w/ chaos & positivity | Grung Valor Bard ๐Ÿธ

Environmental science 70%
Geography 18%
IPBES @ipbes.net ยท 7d
41 #IPBESfellows will be in Manchester from 2-4 February to attend a workshop where they will learn about science-policy interactions and have the opportunity to engage with IPBES experts & policymakers present at #IPBES12.

๐ŸŒ๐Ÿงช More about the IPBES fellowship programme: https://ow.ly/fV9850Y60ga

Reposted by Arman Pili

IPBES @ipbes.net ยท Dec 31
How can change processes be guided toward desirable futures ForNature & people?

The #NatureFuturesFramework is paving the way! A review by Okayasu, S., Kuiper, J.J., et al. showcases the variety of applications in different contexts & areas for future research.

๐Ÿ’กhttps://ow.ly/iIzO50XAvQF
Really excited about what came in the mail today:

Oh yesss it was good carnage! And joining the ceilidh was my best decision that night, and a contender for the highlight of my first BES!!! It was fun dancing with you and everyone!
I have learnt a lot as an Assoc Editor in-training at the @jappliedecology.bsky.social, and I feel privelaged to have THE @martin-nunez.bsky.social as my mentor! It was so great to finally meet you in person, and learn from you more!!!
What are the causes & consequences of behavioural diversity loss in a changing world? And how do we harness this knowledge for conservation? New open access paper led by @odedberger-tal.bsky.social with David Saltz and @mrmic1.bsky.social

#BobWongLab

royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
Anthropogenic change and the loss of behavioural diversity
Abstract. Behavioural diversity is an important but understudied facet of biodiversity that enables wildlife populations to cope with rapidly changing envi
royalsocietypublishing.org

Reposted by Arman Pili

๐ŸŽ‰ Congratulations to Dr Charles Emogor winner of the @zslscience.bsky.social Thomas Henry Huxley Award and Marsh Prize 2025 for the best PhD thesis submitted by a UK university.

Read more: bit.ly/4a9AD9J

๐Ÿ•บ๐Ÿ•บ๐Ÿ•บ๐Ÿ•บ
Really happy to share that the Second Edition of our book, "Spatial Ecology and Conservation Modeling", is now out and available online!

We provide a foundation for applied spatial ecology with a focus on learning-by-doing.

@camzoology.bsky.social @conservation.cam.ac.uk
Spatial Ecology and Conservation Modeling
This textbook provides a foundation for modern applied ecology. It follows a rapidly changing field with updates of concepts, methods, and code.
link.springer.com
IPBES @ipbes.net ยท Nov 28
Thatโ€™s a wrap on the First Authors' Meeting of ๐Ÿก IPBES #2ndGlobalAssessment!

Huge thanks to our fellows, authors & experts for their dedication this week, setting the vision and foundations for the next 3 years. ๐ŸŒ

Grateful to UNESCO for hosting us!

๐Ÿงช https://www.ipbes.net/second-global-assessment

Reposted by Arman Pili

IPBES @ipbes.net ยท Nov 27
Some of IPBES #2ndGlobalAssessment Coordinating Leading Authors started out their IPBES journey as Fellows during the #GlobalAssessment.

This week in Paris, Fellowship alumni and Coordinating Lead Authors met with the new generation of fellows and shared anecdotes, words of wisdom, and advice.

Reposted by Arman Pili

IPBES @ipbes.net ยท Nov 26
Earlier this week, IPBES #2ndGlobalAssessment fellows received introductions to the program.

The young researchers from across the world got to know each other and started planning for the work ahead.

Learn more about the IPBES Fellowship Program: https://www.ipbes.net/ipbes-fellowship-programme

Timely opportunity for my research pivot to conservation informatics for bridging science-practice-policy! ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿธ
ipbes.net IPBES @ipbes.net ยท Nov 25
Great progress has been made at the First Authorโ€™s Meeting for the #2ndGlobalAssessment ! ๐ŸŒ

Coordinating Lead Authors and Fellows got to know each other and started ideating the working elements for the assessment.

Thank you to participants for your dedication and passion #ForNature! ๐ŸŒฑ
IPBES @ipbes.net ยท Nov 25
Great progress has been made at the First Authorโ€™s Meeting for the #2ndGlobalAssessment ! ๐ŸŒ

Coordinating Lead Authors and Fellows got to know each other and started ideating the working elements for the assessment.

Thank you to participants for your dedication and passion #ForNature! ๐ŸŒฑ
InvaPact III workshop is now over: WHAT A WEEK! ~60 experts from 30 countries putting their brainpower together for an unique collaborative project.
Work hard, play hard: they really followed my motto!
Powerful publications on the way!
Please repost!

I am looking for a passionate and hard-working PhD student to work in southern Africa on experimental defaunation and rewilding of megafauna. See the link below for more information:

@camzoology.bsky.social @conservation.cam.ac.uk
Reversing defaunation through rewilding and its consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem function | Department of Zoology
Reversing defaunation through rewilding and its consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem function Supervisor: Professor Rob Fletcher The world is facing several global challenges that are transform...
www.zoo.cam.ac.uk
๐Ÿ“ฃ A global assessment of the status, trends and gaps of #non-native (alien, partly #invasive) #species

A new #publication with 65 authors from all continents (except Antarctica), 42 article pages and >500 references.

doi.org/10.1111/brv....

๐ŸŒ #ecology #globalchange
Biological invasions: a global assessment of geographic distributions, longโ€term trends, and data gaps
Biological invasions are one of the major drivers of biodiversity decline and have been shown to have far-reaching consequences for society and the economy. Preventing the introduction and spread of ....
doi.org

Today was my first day as a Research Associate ๐Ÿค“ at @fletcherecology.bsky.social group in the @camzoology.bsky.social University of Cambridge!!! Looking forward to mapping global connectivity ๐Ÿ‘ฃ๐Ÿž๐ŸŒ and its applications for biodiversity conservation and restoration ๐Ÿฆ๐ŸŒฟ!!!

<3 <3 <3

๐Ÿš€ Whatโ€™s next?
Weโ€™re applying this method to 600+ alien amphibians and reptiles ๐ŸฆŽ๐Ÿธ to map their global invasion potential & understand global biotic homogenization ๐ŸŒ
(8/8)

๐Ÿ”ง Our fix:
We sub-sample both presences & backgrounds across the full environmental gradient available to a species.
This helps SDMs better:
๐Ÿ“Œ Explain niches
๐Ÿ“ Predict current distributions
๐Ÿ•ฐ๏ธ Project future/range-shifting scenarios
(7/8)

๐Ÿ’ฅ What went wrong?
Environmental sampling bias!
The model didnโ€™t capture the true species-environment relationshipโ€”it just overfit to the oversampled Australian conditions.
โžก๏ธ The data were unbalanced in environmental space, and it showed.
(6/8)

๐ŸŽฏ The scenario:
Goal: Predict the global invaded range of the cane toad ๐Ÿธ
Data:
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท 1000 records from native Brazil
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ 2000 from invaded Australia
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ 100 from invaded Philippines

๐Ÿ‘‰ All thinned using standard methods (SOA)

Result: SDMs accurately predicted AU and BR(overfit), but mehhh in PH

(5/8)

๐Ÿคบ Iโ€™ve had beef with this issue since my MSc days. It all started here:
๐Ÿ“„ doi.org/10.1038/s415...
(4/8)
Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments
doi.org

โœ… The Solution:
Apply 'Habitat Stratified Sampling Design' when thinning both data.

Our new methods:
1๏ธโƒฃ Environmental clustering
2๏ธโƒฃ Environmental distance thinning

Both outperform conventional approaches for:
๐ŸŒ Explaining
๐Ÿ“ Predicting
โณ Projecting species distributions

(3/8)

๐Ÿงฉ The Problem:
Environmental sampling bias = when some environmental conditions are oversampled just because theyโ€™re common or widespread across the landscape.
โžก๏ธ This skews the models and messes with predictive accuracy.

(2/8)
GBIF @gbif.org ยท Mar 5
We're looking for the input of IAS data collectors, users or curators to take part in a survey to help shape the future of IAS data standards and accessibility.

This survey is hosted by the GBIF and @tdwg.org task groups on IAS โญ

๐Ÿ”—www.surveymonkey.com...
The loss of megafauna over the last 50,000 years has caused ecological theories to be based on already-degraded ecosystems.

https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.11134

#Megafauna #Coexistence #Megaherbivore #ShiftingBaselineSyndrome #CommunityEcology #LargeHerbivore

Reposted by Arman Pili

My final PhD chapter published in FEE (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment): re-mapping Kรถppen-Geiger climate zones, but now using microclimate! Very excited to have this one out:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Me too please!