Amund Vik
@amundvik.bsky.social
Energy policy, campaigns, elections and geopolitics.
https://open.substack.com/pub/amundvik
Eurasiagroup | Data Sciences
https://open.substack.com/pub/amundvik
Eurasiagroup | Data Sciences
Pinned
Amund Vik
@amundvik.bsky.social
· Mar 6
Im going to go ahead and say that Americans already should be quite worried..
Reposted by Amund Vik
#China + #India #oil imports flatlined in 2025 (14.78 mbpd/'25 vs 14.75 mbpd/'24). China imports even dipped, from an average of 10.06 mbpd in '24 to 9.98 mbpd in '25. With output growing, a supply overhang has been building. That helps explain why crude hasn't jumped more even amid #Iran risks.
February 5, 2026 at 5:50 PM
Reposted by Amund Vik
davos wasn’t about trump’s speech.
it was about allies concluding they can’t rely on the united states anymore.
that’s not anti-american.
it’s strategic reality.
@gzeromedia.com
it was about allies concluding they can’t rely on the united states anymore.
that’s not anti-american.
it’s strategic reality.
@gzeromedia.com
Has the US-led world order ended? | ask ian
YouTube video by GZERO Media
www.youtube.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:03 PM
davos wasn’t about trump’s speech.
it was about allies concluding they can’t rely on the united states anymore.
that’s not anti-american.
it’s strategic reality.
@gzeromedia.com
it was about allies concluding they can’t rely on the united states anymore.
that’s not anti-american.
it’s strategic reality.
@gzeromedia.com
Would be fun to show this to someone in 2015, and ask them to describe a sequence of events that could bring about this world.
January 9, 2026 at 8:38 PM
Would be fun to show this to someone in 2015, and ask them to describe a sequence of events that could bring about this world.
Reposted by Amund Vik
#Europe's #energy remains costly because of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. Yet it's worth aknowledging how much has been achieved since the start of this war in early 2022. #Power & #gas prices have dropped substaantially. #Reneswables have expanded, #fossilfuel use has declined. That's progress.
January 9, 2026 at 12:29 PM
#Europe's #energy remains costly because of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. Yet it's worth aknowledging how much has been achieved since the start of this war in early 2022. #Power & #gas prices have dropped substaantially. #Reneswables have expanded, #fossilfuel use has declined. That's progress.
Reposted by Amund Vik
Check out Eurasia Group's #TopRisks2026 out just now.
Risk #2: Overpowered is related to #energy and regards #electrification: #China has mastered it. The #US is ceding it. That will become impossible to ignore, globally.
You can download the full report here:
www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...
Risk #2: Overpowered is related to #energy and regards #electrification: #China has mastered it. The #US is ceding it. That will become impossible to ignore, globally.
You can download the full report here:
www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...
January 5, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Check out Eurasia Group's #TopRisks2026 out just now.
Risk #2: Overpowered is related to #energy and regards #electrification: #China has mastered it. The #US is ceding it. That will become impossible to ignore, globally.
You can download the full report here:
www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...
Risk #2: Overpowered is related to #energy and regards #electrification: #China has mastered it. The #US is ceding it. That will become impossible to ignore, globally.
You can download the full report here:
www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...
Reposted by Amund Vik
Natural gas is no longer expensive in Europe. That should also soon feed into lower wholesale electricity prices.
See below a few details from my briefings.
Let me know if you'd like to receive it.
See below a few details from my briefings.
Let me know if you'd like to receive it.
December 11, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Natural gas is no longer expensive in Europe. That should also soon feed into lower wholesale electricity prices.
See below a few details from my briefings.
Let me know if you'd like to receive it.
See below a few details from my briefings.
Let me know if you'd like to receive it.
Reposted by Amund Vik
#Ukraine has suffered what may be the biggest attacks on its #energy infrastructure that any country has ever endured. #Russia has struck every power station plus its gas production, bringing available capacity to virtually zero–which to my knowledge has never happened to a nation.
November 11, 2025 at 4:14 PM
October 28, 2025 at 9:22 PM
New piece out now! Looking at political capital and how it is influenced by spcial media and hyper active news cycles
open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...
open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...
A Theory of Political capital
A key question for private sector leaders is why the quality of political decision-making seems to be declining.
open.substack.com
October 18, 2025 at 10:10 AM
New piece out now! Looking at political capital and how it is influenced by spcial media and hyper active news cycles
open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...
open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...
Reposted by Amund Vik
#EU #coal prices have plunged to around $90/t, the lowest level since May'21 amid a shift to #cleanpower & #renewables. Coal's power share in the EU has plunged from 40% in 1985 to just over 10%. It'll take some time to feed through, but lower fuel import reliance will bring down power costs too.
October 14, 2025 at 9:18 AM
#EU #coal prices have plunged to around $90/t, the lowest level since May'21 amid a shift to #cleanpower & #renewables. Coal's power share in the EU has plunged from 40% in 1985 to just over 10%. It'll take some time to feed through, but lower fuel import reliance will bring down power costs too.
The combination of high inflation, low growth and relatively feeble centrist political response has been devastating for politics in many places. Cause for optimism with Carneys win in Canada and Jonas in Norway though.
#Inflation has been a populist enabler in rich countries. It's outpaced #GDP growth for years, so most people have become poorer. It's toxic, esp since the super-rich get richer from equity booms/tax breaks. Gvts must urgently get growth over inflation to prevent a further rise of anger politics.
September 24, 2025 at 7:02 PM
The combination of high inflation, low growth and relatively feeble centrist political response has been devastating for politics in many places. Cause for optimism with Carneys win in Canada and Jonas in Norway though.
Reposted by Amund Vik
#Oil intensity is falling in big economies (incl #China). It explains why oil demand growth is flatlining. Though there's a big outlier in #SouthKorea, which has taken on petrochemical/refining capacity as others have cut back, overal oil intensity has been declining for 20 years in big economies.
September 8, 2025 at 10:01 AM
#Oil intensity is falling in big economies (incl #China). It explains why oil demand growth is flatlining. Though there's a big outlier in #SouthKorea, which has taken on petrochemical/refining capacity as others have cut back, overal oil intensity has been declining for 20 years in big economies.
Ny pod ute nå med @tarjeiskirbekk.bsky.social! Spennende valg i Bolivia og Moldova. podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/p...
Bolivia! Moldova!
Podkastepisode · PoliTickr · 04.09.2025 · 39 min
podcasts.apple.com
September 5, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Ny pod ute nå med @tarjeiskirbekk.bsky.social! Spennende valg i Bolivia og Moldova. podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/p...
Very likely. Trying desperately to make him stop believing it when it gets out of hand will probably be much harder.
September 5, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Very likely. Trying desperately to make him stop believing it when it gets out of hand will probably be much harder.
Reposted by Amund Vik
The global share of combustion engines has plunged from 90% in 2019 to not much more than 50% in 2025.
With #EV sales (incl. hybrids) to hit 20+ mln in 2025 we’ve reached levels forecast by the IEA’s most bullish scenario for 2030 in 2019-which was largely dismissed esp by the #oil industry.
With #EV sales (incl. hybrids) to hit 20+ mln in 2025 we’ve reached levels forecast by the IEA’s most bullish scenario for 2030 in 2019-which was largely dismissed esp by the #oil industry.
August 22, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Reposted by Amund Vik
One reason why #Europe's growth has lagged is that the #EU is the most trade-reliant of all major economies - which is tricky given #trade as share of global GDP is in decline, not least amid Trump's #tariff sprees.
Ping me if you'd like to receive my daily #energy, #resources & #industry briefing.
Ping me if you'd like to receive my daily #energy, #resources & #industry briefing.
August 5, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Americans with no access to healthcare and social safety net must look at this news with some bewilderment about the nations priorities.
August 4, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Americans with no access to healthcare and social safety net must look at this news with some bewilderment about the nations priorities.
Reposted by Amund Vik
EU #gas stocks will be 90% full by 1 Nov - assuming similar daily injections btw 1Jul-1Aug & btw 1Jun-1Jul and then half current avg daily injection btw 1 Sep-1 Nov. That would support EU move to allow loosening of pre-winter storage mandates and instead let normal market conditions ensure supply.
July 14, 2025 at 1:02 PM
EU #gas stocks will be 90% full by 1 Nov - assuming similar daily injections btw 1Jul-1Aug & btw 1Jun-1Jul and then half current avg daily injection btw 1 Sep-1 Nov. That would support EU move to allow loosening of pre-winter storage mandates and instead let normal market conditions ensure supply.
What a timeline this is!
June 23, 2025 at 2:05 PM
What a timeline this is!
Reposted by Amund Vik
‼️ First official exit polls from 🇵🇱 presidential election
Rafal Trzaskowski (Tusk's candidate, PO): 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice, PiS): 49.7%
Rafal Trzaskowski (Tusk's candidate, PO): 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice, PiS): 49.7%
June 1, 2025 at 7:01 PM
‼️ First official exit polls from 🇵🇱 presidential election
Rafal Trzaskowski (Tusk's candidate, PO): 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice, PiS): 49.7%
Rafal Trzaskowski (Tusk's candidate, PO): 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice, PiS): 49.7%
This is a timely piece by the @financialtimes.com editorial board. If centrist governments do not deliver, it will be very hard to stop the rise of the far right. And «Moderate parties need bolder policymaking, visible delivery and more compelling personalities to counter them.»
on.ft.com/44VsvHq
on.ft.com/44VsvHq
Europe’s far right is hammering at the door of power
Moderate parties are running out of time to find ways to satisfy voters’ concerns
on.ft.com
May 25, 2025 at 1:56 PM
This is a timely piece by the @financialtimes.com editorial board. If centrist governments do not deliver, it will be very hard to stop the rise of the far right. And «Moderate parties need bolder policymaking, visible delivery and more compelling personalities to counter them.»
on.ft.com/44VsvHq
on.ft.com/44VsvHq
Rolig helg? Trenger noe å lytte til? Hør meg og @tarjeiskirbekk.bsky.social diskutere valgene i Romania, Albania, Portugal og Polen i denne podcasten!
Vil høyrepopulistene vinne presidentvalg i Polen 1.juni? Hva var dramatikken valgkvelden i Romania? Hvordan gikk det 3 valget på 3 år i Portugal? Og hva var dynamikken i valget i Albania?
Finn ut ved høre på podkast!
open.spotify.com/episode/6xNZ...
Finn ut ved høre på podkast!
open.spotify.com/episode/6xNZ...
Romania, Polen, Albania and Portugal!
PoliTickr · Episode
open.spotify.com
May 24, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Rolig helg? Trenger noe å lytte til? Hør meg og @tarjeiskirbekk.bsky.social diskutere valgene i Romania, Albania, Portugal og Polen i denne podcasten!
The internet is a strange and fun place. I’m having a coffee and reading what at first glance appears to be two dogs discussing a tv show. @abbeythelab.bsky.social
May 23, 2025 at 8:30 AM
The internet is a strange and fun place. I’m having a coffee and reading what at first glance appears to be two dogs discussing a tv show. @abbeythelab.bsky.social