Asaf Manela
@amanela.bsky.social
Financial economist. Studies asset pricing, ML, text/NLP, information. Teaches fintech. Dad x 3. Coding nerd. Rarely funny.
asafmanela.github.io
asafmanela.github.io
Pinned
Asaf Manela
@amanela.bsky.social
· Dec 3
1/ Does finance benefit society? 📈📉 In a forthcoming Review of Financial Studies paper, @mjha91.bsky.social , Hongyi Liu, and yours truly tackle this question by leveraging large language models to measure sentiments in books spanning centuries and continents. 🧵
🚨 Call for Papers! 🚨
Submit to the 21st Annual Olin Finance Conference @WashUOlin, Oct 16–17, 2025.
Topics: asset pricing, corp finance, behavioral, more.
Deadline: July 13
Details: event.olin.wustl.edu/washu-financ...
#econsky
Submit to the 21st Annual Olin Finance Conference @WashUOlin, Oct 16–17, 2025.
Topics: asset pricing, corp finance, behavioral, more.
Deadline: July 13
Details: event.olin.wustl.edu/washu-financ...
#econsky
June 20, 2025 at 4:49 AM
🚨 Call for Papers! 🚨
Submit to the 21st Annual Olin Finance Conference @WashUOlin, Oct 16–17, 2025.
Topics: asset pricing, corp finance, behavioral, more.
Deadline: July 13
Details: event.olin.wustl.edu/washu-financ...
#econsky
Submit to the 21st Annual Olin Finance Conference @WashUOlin, Oct 16–17, 2025.
Topics: asset pricing, corp finance, behavioral, more.
Deadline: July 13
Details: event.olin.wustl.edu/washu-financ...
#econsky
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Updated this chart with the newest Gemini. It shows the rapid progress in AI over less than two years: costs for GPT-4 class models has dropped 99.7% and even the most advanced models (beating PhDs at the GPQA) are still 82% cheaper than GPT-4.
Probably not worth betting on this trend ending soon.
Probably not worth betting on this trend ending soon.
April 4, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Updated this chart with the newest Gemini. It shows the rapid progress in AI over less than two years: costs for GPT-4 class models has dropped 99.7% and even the most advanced models (beating PhDs at the GPQA) are still 82% cheaper than GPT-4.
Probably not worth betting on this trend ending soon.
Probably not worth betting on this trend ending soon.
Love what you have done with that graph
My third paper, co-authored with @amanela.bsky.social and Hongyi Liu, is now available as a pre-print. We analyze public sentiment toward finance across countries and over time, investigating its influence on economic growth and credit expansion.
Link: academic.oup.com/rfs/advance-...
Link: academic.oup.com/rfs/advance-...
February 28, 2025 at 6:58 AM
Love what you have done with that graph
Reposted by Asaf Manela
📢Call for papers for the NYU Stern Climate Finance Conference!
Conference: May 23
NYU Stern
Deadline: Feb 28
www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-s...
Conference: May 23
NYU Stern
Deadline: Feb 28
www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-s...
February 5, 2025 at 2:54 PM
📢Call for papers for the NYU Stern Climate Finance Conference!
Conference: May 23
NYU Stern
Deadline: Feb 28
www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-s...
Conference: May 23
NYU Stern
Deadline: Feb 28
www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-s...
Reposted by Asaf Manela
The most extensive open access macro database spanning centuries, many items, and many countries. Worth a look if you are into empirical macro/finance: www.globalmacrodata.com
#EconSky #FinSky #Data #Macro #Research #OpenAccess
NB: Interest rate of Netherlands since 1402 (the year, not Feb '14 😀)
#EconSky #FinSky #Data #Macro #Research #OpenAccess
NB: Interest rate of Netherlands since 1402 (the year, not Feb '14 😀)
February 5, 2025 at 8:55 AM
The most extensive open access macro database spanning centuries, many items, and many countries. Worth a look if you are into empirical macro/finance: www.globalmacrodata.com
#EconSky #FinSky #Data #Macro #Research #OpenAccess
NB: Interest rate of Netherlands since 1402 (the year, not Feb '14 😀)
#EconSky #FinSky #Data #Macro #Research #OpenAccess
NB: Interest rate of Netherlands since 1402 (the year, not Feb '14 😀)
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Luke Taylor, Stephen Terry, and I are doing it again. This will be the 5th structural summer school in finance. We do not just teach papers. We teach techniques, and then we have students work on a problem set. Please get your students to apply.
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
2025 Summer School on Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu
February 4, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Luke Taylor, Stephen Terry, and I are doing it again. This will be the 5th structural summer school in finance. We do not just teach papers. We teach techniques, and then we have students work on a problem set. Please get your students to apply.
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
* #econsky
Thrilled to announce our new paper, The Natural Language of Finance, forthcoming in Foundations and Trends!
We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter
We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter
January 31, 2025 at 7:30 PM
* #econsky
Thrilled to announce our new paper, The Natural Language of Finance, forthcoming in Foundations and Trends!
We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter
We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter
January 31, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Thrilled to announce our new paper, The Natural Language of Finance, forthcoming in Foundations and Trends!
We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter
We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter
This breakthrough in fusion seems much more significant to me than the llm one by deepseek:
physicsworld.com/a/chinas-exp...
physicsworld.com/a/chinas-exp...
China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak smashes fusion confinement record – Physics World
The device sustained a high-confinement plasma for over 1000 seconds
physicsworld.com
January 29, 2025 at 9:09 PM
This breakthrough in fusion seems much more significant to me than the llm one by deepseek:
physicsworld.com/a/chinas-exp...
physicsworld.com/a/chinas-exp...
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Hi Everyone!
We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work.
Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...
We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work.
Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...
forms.gle
January 29, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Hi Everyone!
We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work.
Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...
We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work.
Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...
Been using @zotero.org for bib management for many years, but what is most remarkable about this project is how it keeps improving. Its pdf reader now beats anything else I've used, and v7 added the Smart Reference Popup that allow me to peak at a figure/table/reference without leaving the text.
January 26, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Been using @zotero.org for bib management for many years, but what is most remarkable about this project is how it keeps improving. Its pdf reader now beats anything else I've used, and v7 added the Smart Reference Popup that allow me to peak at a figure/table/reference without leaving the text.
Ever wonder why in finance we refer to market-wide risk as "systematic" instead of "systemic"?
Purely from the standpoint of dictionary definitions, “systemic” (affecting an entire system) might appear more intuitive for market-wide risk than “systematic” (done according to a system or plan).
Purely from the standpoint of dictionary definitions, “systemic” (affecting an entire system) might appear more intuitive for market-wide risk than “systematic” (done according to a system or plan).
January 20, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Ever wonder why in finance we refer to market-wide risk as "systematic" instead of "systemic"?
Purely from the standpoint of dictionary definitions, “systemic” (affecting an entire system) might appear more intuitive for market-wide risk than “systematic” (done according to a system or plan).
Purely from the standpoint of dictionary definitions, “systemic” (affecting an entire system) might appear more intuitive for market-wide risk than “systematic” (done according to a system or plan).
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Why do large Swedish companies file for Chapter 11 in the US? And what does it tell us about reform opportunities in EU insolvency law? (Hint: ch 11 is better; reforms should continue). I discuss the Northvolt filing here: www.hhs.se/sv/houseoffi...
Navigating Corporate Insolvency: Lessons from Northvolt's Bankruptcy
Northvolt, the ambitious Swedish battery producer, recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas, highlighting significant challenges for Europe's corporate insolvency systems. Swedish House of Fi...
www.hhs.se
January 16, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Why do large Swedish companies file for Chapter 11 in the US? And what does it tell us about reform opportunities in EU insolvency law? (Hint: ch 11 is better; reforms should continue). I discuss the Northvolt filing here: www.hhs.se/sv/houseoffi...
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Good idea. Using sentiment analysis @israelsen.bsky.social, eitan goldman and I found that the same corporate financial news is covered differently in the NYT vs WSJ based on corporations’ politics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
December 5, 2024 at 4:48 PM
Good idea. Using sentiment analysis @israelsen.bsky.social, eitan goldman and I found that the same corporate financial news is covered differently in the NYT vs WSJ based on corporations’ politics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Exciting stuff. Competition is good. www.wsj.com/articles/ama...
Exclusive | Amazon Announces Supercomputer, New Server Powered by Homegrown AI Chips
The company’s megacluster of chips for artificial-intelligence startup Anthropic will be among the world’s largest, it said, and its new giant server will lower the cost of AI as it seeks to build an ...
www.wsj.com
December 3, 2024 at 8:21 PM
Exciting stuff. Competition is good. www.wsj.com/articles/ama...
1/ Does finance benefit society? 📈📉 In a forthcoming Review of Financial Studies paper, @mjha91.bsky.social , Hongyi Liu, and yours truly tackle this question by leveraging large language models to measure sentiments in books spanning centuries and continents. 🧵
December 3, 2024 at 5:32 PM
1/ Does finance benefit society? 📈📉 In a forthcoming Review of Financial Studies paper, @mjha91.bsky.social , Hongyi Liu, and yours truly tackle this question by leveraging large language models to measure sentiments in books spanning centuries and continents. 🧵
How much time passes between when you get the announcement that a new version of Julia is released until you juliaup update?
(ICYMI v11.2 is out today)
(ICYMI v11.2 is out today)
December 2, 2024 at 9:00 PM
How much time passes between when you get the announcement that a new version of Julia is released until you juliaup update?
(ICYMI v11.2 is out today)
(ICYMI v11.2 is out today)
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Pluto is an absolute masterpiece of scientific and educational software. It's like Jupyter notebooks without "rerun all". In fact, it's so good someone wrote a song about it!!!
youtu.be/SyloWC8gheM?...
youtu.be/SyloWC8gheM?...
December 1, 2024 at 10:39 AM
Pluto is an absolute masterpiece of scientific and educational software. It's like Jupyter notebooks without "rerun all". In fact, it's so good someone wrote a song about it!!!
youtu.be/SyloWC8gheM?...
youtu.be/SyloWC8gheM?...
Reposted by Asaf Manela
Survey forecasts are not that useful for investing: "How accurate are survey forecasts on the market?" by @jiaenli.bsky.social and coauthors.
Link to updated working paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
Link to updated working paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
November 28, 2024 at 6:38 PM
Survey forecasts are not that useful for investing: "How accurate are survey forecasts on the market?" by @jiaenli.bsky.social and coauthors.
Link to updated working paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
Link to updated working paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
Reposted by Asaf Manela
First skeet for the first paper as an AP! In *Anatomy of Treasury Market*, we study the drivers of U.S. Treasury yields over the past two decades using a flexible asset demand & supply system (with two amazing coauthors @haonanzhou.bsky.social and @manavchaudhary.bsky.social). Some highlights:
fuzhiyu.me
November 27, 2024 at 9:33 PM
First skeet for the first paper as an AP! In *Anatomy of Treasury Market*, we study the drivers of U.S. Treasury yields over the past two decades using a flexible asset demand & supply system (with two amazing coauthors @haonanzhou.bsky.social and @manavchaudhary.bsky.social). Some highlights:
Reposted by Asaf Manela
New paper alert! 📢 WFH reshapes the tradeoff between job flexibility and entrepreneurship: fewer startups, esp. women-led.
⚖️ Flexibility at work is now a tradeoff for autonomy.
Explore the findings: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
@yalesom.bsky.social #econ #newbusiness #wfh
⚖️ Flexibility at work is now a tradeoff for autonomy.
Explore the findings: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
@yalesom.bsky.social #econ #newbusiness #wfh
Hustling From Home? Work From Home Flexibility and Entrepreneurial Entry
We investigate the influence of the growing trend of work-from-home (WFH) on new business formation, with a particular focus on the period surrounding the COVID
papers.ssrn.com
November 27, 2024 at 8:30 PM
New paper alert! 📢 WFH reshapes the tradeoff between job flexibility and entrepreneurship: fewer startups, esp. women-led.
⚖️ Flexibility at work is now a tradeoff for autonomy.
Explore the findings: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
@yalesom.bsky.social #econ #newbusiness #wfh
⚖️ Flexibility at work is now a tradeoff for autonomy.
Explore the findings: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
@yalesom.bsky.social #econ #newbusiness #wfh
Matt Levine's account sure looks like a bot is just advertising his (highly recommended) newsletter with a generated title. Except the "spent" typo through me off.
Is it really you @matt-levine.bsky.social ?
Will you pass a turing test?
Is it really you @matt-levine.bsky.social ?
Will you pass a turing test?
Every week I spent about 50 hours on this newsletter. It’s not about the prize money or the internship. I purely want to experience the taste of being first. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Some Wamco Trades Were Better Than Others
Cherry-picking, quant contests, hairy private wealth clients, in-seat promotions, a DJT business model and the head of mar
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2024 at 10:39 PM
Matt Levine's account sure looks like a bot is just advertising his (highly recommended) newsletter with a generated title. Except the "spent" typo through me off.
Is it really you @matt-levine.bsky.social ?
Will you pass a turing test?
Is it really you @matt-levine.bsky.social ?
Will you pass a turing test?
Is Mark Cuban the billionaire with his thumb on the scale on this platform or is it just my feed?
November 26, 2024 at 10:33 PM
Is Mark Cuban the billionaire with his thumb on the scale on this platform or is it just my feed?
my office/outlook mail server doesn't seem to work this morning, so sorry if you sent me an email, but not sorry I'm having a productive morning
November 25, 2024 at 5:43 PM
my office/outlook mail server doesn't seem to work this morning, so sorry if you sent me an email, but not sorry I'm having a productive morning
Does anyone know a source for recent data on average GPA by University? #EconSky
Best I could find is gradeinflation.com whose data ends in 2016.
Best I could find is gradeinflation.com whose data ends in 2016.
National Trends in Grade Inflation, American Colleges and Universities
gradeinflation.com
November 22, 2024 at 10:17 PM
Does anyone know a source for recent data on average GPA by University? #EconSky
Best I could find is gradeinflation.com whose data ends in 2016.
Best I could find is gradeinflation.com whose data ends in 2016.