Alexander St. Leger
@alexstleger.bsky.social
Analyst. ex-FDD, C4ADS, Fulbright in 🇲🇩/🇷🇴. Ohio State alum. Eyes on Moldova, Transnistria, geoecon. Иногда на русском. // Opinions mine.
New detail from Verstka on Ilan Shor's cross border transactions vehicle.
A7 reported ₽3.6 billion in revenue after September 2024, but it handled ₽292 billion in transactions, predominantly debt securities. Translation? Shor is moving a sizeable amount of cash.
verstka.media/moldavskij-oli…
A7 reported ₽3.6 billion in revenue after September 2024, but it handled ₽292 billion in transactions, predominantly debt securities. Translation? Shor is moving a sizeable amount of cash.
verstka.media/moldavskij-oli…
https://verstka.media/moldavskij-oli…
April 3, 2025 at 7:56 PM
New detail from Verstka on Ilan Shor's cross border transactions vehicle.
A7 reported ₽3.6 billion in revenue after September 2024, but it handled ₽292 billion in transactions, predominantly debt securities. Translation? Shor is moving a sizeable amount of cash.
verstka.media/moldavskij-oli…
A7 reported ₽3.6 billion in revenue after September 2024, but it handled ₽292 billion in transactions, predominantly debt securities. Translation? Shor is moving a sizeable amount of cash.
verstka.media/moldavskij-oli…
Latvia's FIU allowed Peter Aven to transfer €235 million from an unnamed, unsanctioned Central Asian bank to his frozen bank account in Latvia.
Aven hopes that with his Russian assets sold off, he'll be removed from the EU sanctions regime.
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/31/p...
Aven hopes that with his Russian assets sold off, he'll be removed from the EU sanctions regime.
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/31/p...
Пётр Авен переводит в Латвию 235 млн евро для снятия санкций - Русская служба The Moscow Times
www.moscowtimes.ru
March 31, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Latvia's FIU allowed Peter Aven to transfer €235 million from an unnamed, unsanctioned Central Asian bank to his frozen bank account in Latvia.
Aven hopes that with his Russian assets sold off, he'll be removed from the EU sanctions regime.
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/31/p...
Aven hopes that with his Russian assets sold off, he'll be removed from the EU sanctions regime.
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/31/p...
Reposted by Alexander St. Leger
The admin’s decision to shutter media incl. VOA greatly erodes press freedom & information access, undermining democracy & freedom in the US & across the globe - a disastrous gift to repressive, autocratic regimes.
My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social piece -
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social piece -
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
Silencing Voice of America will only strengthen autocrats around the world
United States President Donald Trump's decision to shut down US-funded media outlets including Voice of America will boost authoritarian regimes around the world, writes Mercedes Sapuppo.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
March 21, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The admin’s decision to shutter media incl. VOA greatly erodes press freedom & information access, undermining democracy & freedom in the US & across the globe - a disastrous gift to repressive, autocratic regimes.
My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social piece -
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social piece -
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
NEW: My latest at FDD.
General License 8 was a mistake and President Trump was right to let it die.
Now, it's time to comprehensively sanction the remaining shadow fleet tankers and aggressively wield secondary sanctions against price cap violators.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
General License 8 was a mistake and President Trump was right to let it die.
Now, it's time to comprehensively sanction the remaining shadow fleet tankers and aggressively wield secondary sanctions against price cap violators.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
With Lapsing Sanctions Waiver, Trump Tightens the Vise on Russian Energy
The Trump administration landed a quiet but forceful blow against Russian energy exports last week. On March 12, the U.S. Treasury Department let a Biden-era sanctions waiver lapse, effectively prohib...
www.fdd.org
March 21, 2025 at 1:23 PM
NEW: My latest at FDD.
General License 8 was a mistake and President Trump was right to let it die.
Now, it's time to comprehensively sanction the remaining shadow fleet tankers and aggressively wield secondary sanctions against price cap violators.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
General License 8 was a mistake and President Trump was right to let it die.
Now, it's time to comprehensively sanction the remaining shadow fleet tankers and aggressively wield secondary sanctions against price cap violators.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
Really liked this read from Politico’s @gabrielgavin.bsky.social
“There’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia's neighbors are saying it's time to lay out red lines.”
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
“There’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia's neighbors are saying it's time to lay out red lines.”
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Trump will make — or break — Europe’s Russia sanctions
Western allies are worried the U.S. president could go either way on decisions that will ripple across the Atlantic.
www.politico.eu
March 19, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Really liked this read from Politico’s @gabrielgavin.bsky.social
“There’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia's neighbors are saying it's time to lay out red lines.”
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
“There’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia's neighbors are saying it's time to lay out red lines.”
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Reposted by Alexander St. Leger
Rheinmetall is looking to build solid-fuel motors for missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km.
Big for Europe's missile industry if true and a major step in the direction of setting up a European production line for short and medium-range ballistic missiles.
1/2
www.hartpunkt.de/rheinmetall-...
Big for Europe's missile industry if true and a major step in the direction of setting up a European production line for short and medium-range ballistic missiles.
1/2
www.hartpunkt.de/rheinmetall-...
Rheinmetall will große Raketenmotoren und Satelliten bauen
Der Düsseldorfer Rüstungskonzern Rheinmetall hat schon im vergangenen Jahr den Aufbau einer Raketenmotorproduktion in Deutschland angekündigt.
www.hartpunkt.de
March 13, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Rheinmetall is looking to build solid-fuel motors for missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km.
Big for Europe's missile industry if true and a major step in the direction of setting up a European production line for short and medium-range ballistic missiles.
1/2
www.hartpunkt.de/rheinmetall-...
Big for Europe's missile industry if true and a major step in the direction of setting up a European production line for short and medium-range ballistic missiles.
1/2
www.hartpunkt.de/rheinmetall-...
File under “Not Great”:
A consortium led by BIS Entity-Listed China Communications Construction Company will build a Black Sea port in Anaklia, Georgia.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/w...
A consortium led by BIS Entity-Listed China Communications Construction Company will build a Black Sea port in Anaklia, Georgia.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/w...
Plans for a Chinese Port in the Black Sea Roil Georgia Politics
Georgia’s government sparked an uproar by announcing that a port project on the Black Sea will be awarded to a company from China after canceling a contract with a consortium that included Western fir...
www.nytimes.com
March 13, 2025 at 8:37 PM
File under “Not Great”:
A consortium led by BIS Entity-Listed China Communications Construction Company will build a Black Sea port in Anaklia, Georgia.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/w...
A consortium led by BIS Entity-Listed China Communications Construction Company will build a Black Sea port in Anaklia, Georgia.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/w...
An internal report from Evraz, a steel firm in which R. Abramovich holds a 30% stake, found that employees at their Oregon plant bypassed safety tests for armored vehicles.
Why an Abramovich-owned firm is allowed to operate in the US at all is beyond me.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why an Abramovich-owned firm is allowed to operate in the US at all is beyond me.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Armor Plates for US Army Vehicles Never Passed Required Test
An internal probe by Evraz North America found that employees at a Russian-owned steel plant in Oregon sometimes bypassed a key test meant to ensure that armor for one of the Army’s most commonly used...
www.bloomberg.com
March 11, 2025 at 4:07 PM
An internal report from Evraz, a steel firm in which R. Abramovich holds a 30% stake, found that employees at their Oregon plant bypassed safety tests for armored vehicles.
Why an Abramovich-owned firm is allowed to operate in the US at all is beyond me.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why an Abramovich-owned firm is allowed to operate in the US at all is beyond me.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Is Twitter back down for anyone else? Is this outage #3 of the day?
March 10, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Is Twitter back down for anyone else? Is this outage #3 of the day?
Something many of us expected — Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau denied Georgescu from registering for May’s presidential election. Protests ongoing.
Barring a highly unlikely reversal, Georgescu won’t be allowed on the ballot in May.
hotnews.ro/breaking-can...
Barring a highly unlikely reversal, Georgescu won’t be allowed on the ballot in May.
hotnews.ro/breaking-can...
BREAKING Candidatura lui Călin Georgescu, respinsă de Biroul Electoral Central / Violențe în fața BEC, jandarmii au folosit gaze lacrimogene. O parte din protestatari s-au urcat pe ziduri - VIDEO - Ho...
Biroul Electroral Central a invalidat candidatura lui Călin Georgescu. Potrivit unor surse politice, respingerea candidaturii a fost votată de zece din cei 14
hotnews.ro
March 9, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Something many of us expected — Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau denied Georgescu from registering for May’s presidential election. Protests ongoing.
Barring a highly unlikely reversal, Georgescu won’t be allowed on the ballot in May.
hotnews.ro/breaking-can...
Barring a highly unlikely reversal, Georgescu won’t be allowed on the ballot in May.
hotnews.ro/breaking-can...
If the President decides to ratchet up sanctions on Russia, he should first target energy revenues as well as industrial wholesalers that supply Russia’s military industrial complex.
Limiting Moscow’s revenue + exponentially increasing input prices will tighten the vice.
Limiting Moscow’s revenue + exponentially increasing input prices will tighten the vice.
🚨 US President Trump is considering additional sanctions and tariffs on Russia, according to President Trump's post on Truth Social.
March 7, 2025 at 7:26 PM
If the President decides to ratchet up sanctions on Russia, he should first target energy revenues as well as industrial wholesalers that supply Russia’s military industrial complex.
Limiting Moscow’s revenue + exponentially increasing input prices will tighten the vice.
Limiting Moscow’s revenue + exponentially increasing input prices will tighten the vice.
(Full) sanctions relief now could mean:
-Huge boost in energy revenues
-Rush to stockpile industrial inputs like ball bearings, chips, CNCs
-Plunge in interest rates that facilitate defense-industrial capital access
Under those conditions, Moscow could fully rearm in 2-3 years.
-Huge boost in energy revenues
-Rush to stockpile industrial inputs like ball bearings, chips, CNCs
-Plunge in interest rates that facilitate defense-industrial capital access
Under those conditions, Moscow could fully rearm in 2-3 years.
The United States is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Donald Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine, a US official and another person familiar with the matter told Reuters reut.rs/41ryrEq
White House seeks plan for possible Russia sanctions relief, sources say
The United States is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Donald Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine, a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter told Reuters.
reut.rs
March 3, 2025 at 8:11 PM
(Full) sanctions relief now could mean:
-Huge boost in energy revenues
-Rush to stockpile industrial inputs like ball bearings, chips, CNCs
-Plunge in interest rates that facilitate defense-industrial capital access
Under those conditions, Moscow could fully rearm in 2-3 years.
-Huge boost in energy revenues
-Rush to stockpile industrial inputs like ball bearings, chips, CNCs
-Plunge in interest rates that facilitate defense-industrial capital access
Under those conditions, Moscow could fully rearm in 2-3 years.
Interesting — one of the local heads of PSD in Costanta, Ion Dumitrache, was implicated in a corruption investigation alleging he rigged millions in state contracts to boost the Midia Shipyard, which he controls.
m.digi24.ro/stiri/actual...
m.digi24.ro/stiri/actual...
Politician cu succes în afaceri. Cine este Ion Dumitrache, liderul PSD implicat în cazul de corupție din Portul Constanța
Numele lui Ion Dumitrache, politician și om de afaceri influent în Constanța, apare frecvent în dosarul de corupție de la Portul Constanța, anchetat în prezent de procurorii Direcției Naționale Antico...
m.digi24.ro
February 25, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Interesting — one of the local heads of PSD in Costanta, Ion Dumitrache, was implicated in a corruption investigation alleging he rigged millions in state contracts to boost the Midia Shipyard, which he controls.
m.digi24.ro/stiri/actual...
m.digi24.ro/stiri/actual...
Poignant:
“You can measure this war in what people were forced to leave behind: a rose garden abandoned in Melitopol; a stuffed animal forgotten on the outskirts of Mariupol; the blue velvet balls hung on the tree every New Year’s holiday, stored in a box in Berdiansk. All gone.”
t.co/yKEZVkvR6X
“You can measure this war in what people were forced to leave behind: a rose garden abandoned in Melitopol; a stuffed animal forgotten on the outskirts of Mariupol; the blue velvet balls hung on the tree every New Year’s holiday, stored in a box in Berdiansk. All gone.”
t.co/yKEZVkvR6X
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/world/europe/ukraine-prisoner-of-war.html
t.co
February 24, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Poignant:
“You can measure this war in what people were forced to leave behind: a rose garden abandoned in Melitopol; a stuffed animal forgotten on the outskirts of Mariupol; the blue velvet balls hung on the tree every New Year’s holiday, stored in a box in Berdiansk. All gone.”
t.co/yKEZVkvR6X
“You can measure this war in what people were forced to leave behind: a rose garden abandoned in Melitopol; a stuffed animal forgotten on the outskirts of Mariupol; the blue velvet balls hung on the tree every New Year’s holiday, stored in a box in Berdiansk. All gone.”
t.co/yKEZVkvR6X
NEW: My first policy brief at FDD, alongside my colleague Max Meizlish:
If South Africa continues to court Russian and Iranian nuclear cooperation, the U.S. should immediately suspend ratification of its' Section 123 agreement with Pretoria and impose sanctions.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
If South Africa continues to court Russian and Iranian nuclear cooperation, the U.S. should immediately suspend ratification of its' Section 123 agreement with Pretoria and impose sanctions.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
Risking Sanctions, South Africa Welcomes Nuclear Cooperation with Russia and Iran
South Africa is on a collision course with President Donald Trump. On February 17, Pretoria’s minister of mineral and petroleum resources, Gwede Mantashe, signaled his government’s openness to nuclea...
www.fdd.org
February 24, 2025 at 6:13 PM
NEW: My first policy brief at FDD, alongside my colleague Max Meizlish:
If South Africa continues to court Russian and Iranian nuclear cooperation, the U.S. should immediately suspend ratification of its' Section 123 agreement with Pretoria and impose sanctions.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
If South Africa continues to court Russian and Iranian nuclear cooperation, the U.S. should immediately suspend ratification of its' Section 123 agreement with Pretoria and impose sanctions.
www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...
Per NYT, the U.S. is exploring a deal in which the U.S. would relax sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports in exchange for the release of political prisoners.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/w...
A Quick, Quiet Trip to Belarus Signals a Turn in U.S. Policy
After years of the U.S. trying to isolate Russia’s closest ally, a meeting with Belarus’s president points to better relations, raising hopes of loosening his repression and his embrace of Moscow.
www.nytimes.com
February 15, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Per NYT, the U.S. is exploring a deal in which the U.S. would relax sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports in exchange for the release of political prisoners.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/w...
After multiple Shahed drones fell on Moldova during strikes on Odesa overnight, the Moldovan MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador.
This is how he was greeted:
This is how he was greeted:
February 13, 2025 at 4:20 PM
After multiple Shahed drones fell on Moldova during strikes on Odesa overnight, the Moldovan MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador.
This is how he was greeted:
This is how he was greeted:
Reposted by Alexander St. Leger
Existing networks are being reconfigured, selling entities, tankers, and insurance providers that are not sanctioned. Some are existing outfits that haven't been sanctioned, while others are replacing designated ones.
finance.yahoo.com/news/india-b...
finance.yahoo.com/news/india-b...
India Is Building a Sanctions-Proof Supply Chain for Russian Oil
(Bloomberg) -- Follow Bloomberg India on WhatsApp for exclusive content and analysis on what billionaires, businesses and markets are doing. Sign up here.Most Read from BloombergSaudi Arabia’s Neom Si...
finance.yahoo.com
February 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Existing networks are being reconfigured, selling entities, tankers, and insurance providers that are not sanctioned. Some are existing outfits that haven't been sanctioned, while others are replacing designated ones.
finance.yahoo.com/news/india-b...
finance.yahoo.com/news/india-b...
Some really remarkable photos of Tiraspol mid-energy crisis, published by Zona de Securitate.
3rd: Tiraspol’s Elektromash plant, which allegedly continues to run.
4th: Sheriff HQ is dark. Not that anyone was working in the building anyways.
3rd: Tiraspol’s Elektromash plant, which allegedly continues to run.
4th: Sheriff HQ is dark. Not that anyone was working in the building anyways.
February 12, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Some really remarkable photos of Tiraspol mid-energy crisis, published by Zona de Securitate.
3rd: Tiraspol’s Elektromash plant, which allegedly continues to run.
4th: Sheriff HQ is dark. Not that anyone was working in the building anyways.
3rd: Tiraspol’s Elektromash plant, which allegedly continues to run.
4th: Sheriff HQ is dark. Not that anyone was working in the building anyways.
After Duma speaker Volodin said recipients of USAID money in Russia should “confess and repent” publicly.
Both Defense Minister Belousov and United Russia received USAID money at different points during the 2000s, per Agentsvo.
www.agents.media/kogo-volodin...
Both Defense Minister Belousov and United Russia received USAID money at different points during the 2000s, per Agentsvo.
www.agents.media/kogo-volodin...
Кого Володин призвал покаяться на Красной площади: Белоусов, «Единая Россия» и «Молодая гвардия» в прошлом получали деньги от USAID • «Агентство»
Спикер Госдумы Вячеслав Володин на пленарном заседании во вторник призвал покаяться на Красной площади россиян, получавших деньги от Агентства США по международному развитию (USAID). Слова Володина бы...
www.agents.media
February 12, 2025 at 3:59 PM
After Duma speaker Volodin said recipients of USAID money in Russia should “confess and repent” publicly.
Both Defense Minister Belousov and United Russia received USAID money at different points during the 2000s, per Agentsvo.
www.agents.media/kogo-volodin...
Both Defense Minister Belousov and United Russia received USAID money at different points during the 2000s, per Agentsvo.
www.agents.media/kogo-volodin...
A relief — contrary to Maia Sandu’s comments yesterday, the Moldovan Judges Evaluation Commission says the USAID freeze won’t affect vetting of judges.
The commission gets $1.5m from the State Department to support vetting processes.
radiomoldova.md/p/47085/judg...
The commission gets $1.5m from the State Department to support vetting processes.
radiomoldova.md/p/47085/judg...
Judges' Evaluation Commission: Vetting process is not affected by stopping USAID funding
The Judges' Evaluation Commission has announced that the suspension of USAID funding has not impacted their activities, and the commission members are continuing their work as usual. This clarificatio...
radiomoldova.md
February 7, 2025 at 7:47 PM
A relief — contrary to Maia Sandu’s comments yesterday, the Moldovan Judges Evaluation Commission says the USAID freeze won’t affect vetting of judges.
The commission gets $1.5m from the State Department to support vetting processes.
radiomoldova.md/p/47085/judg...
The commission gets $1.5m from the State Department to support vetting processes.
radiomoldova.md/p/47085/judg...
Some good news — Interpol has issued a wanted notice (not a Red Notice) for Vlad Plahotniuc, after an appeal from Moldovan authorities in November.
Worth mentioning — Plaha has at least three passports, if not more.
www.zdg.md/stiri/ultima...
Worth mentioning — Plaha has at least three passports, if not more.
www.zdg.md/stiri/ultima...
Ultima oră/ Vladimir Plahotniuc, dat în căutare internațională pentru arest și extrădare. Detalii de la IGP
Inspectoratul General al Poliției (IGP) informează că, la 6 februarie 2025, Comisia de Control a Fișierelor din cadrul Interpol a notificat Direcția cooperare polițienească internațională a IGP despre...
www.zdg.md
February 7, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Some good news — Interpol has issued a wanted notice (not a Red Notice) for Vlad Plahotniuc, after an appeal from Moldovan authorities in November.
Worth mentioning — Plaha has at least three passports, if not more.
www.zdg.md/stiri/ultima...
Worth mentioning — Plaha has at least three passports, if not more.
www.zdg.md/stiri/ultima...
Reposted by Alexander St. Leger
Really pleased to see BIS and OFAC get Haas Automation on export control violations. Will hopefully have chilling effect. Important detail - this includes transactions going back to 2019. Hoping to see similar actions in EU, Japan, and Taiwan. Still more work to be done. www.bis.gov/press-releas...
Haas Automation to Pay Over $2.5 Million in Combined Civil Penalties to BIS and OFAC for Prohibited Transactions, Including with Entities Affiliated with Chinese and Russian Defense Sectors | Bureau o...
www.bis.gov
January 17, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Really pleased to see BIS and OFAC get Haas Automation on export control violations. Will hopefully have chilling effect. Important detail - this includes transactions going back to 2019. Hoping to see similar actions in EU, Japan, and Taiwan. Still more work to be done. www.bis.gov/press-releas...
Really interesting Moldova note from today’s OFAC designations — Ilan Shor was purportedly involved in a cross-border sanctions evasion scheme between a Kyrgyz bank and Promsvyazbank.
First time I’ve seen Shor directly cited as a sanctions evasion risk factor.
First time I’ve seen Shor directly cited as a sanctions evasion risk factor.
January 15, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Really interesting Moldova note from today’s OFAC designations — Ilan Shor was purportedly involved in a cross-border sanctions evasion scheme between a Kyrgyz bank and Promsvyazbank.
First time I’ve seen Shor directly cited as a sanctions evasion risk factor.
First time I’ve seen Shor directly cited as a sanctions evasion risk factor.
Day 2 of Transnistria’s gas crisis. Transnistrian authorities saying 131 schools, 147 kindergartens, and 130 state buildings were disconnected from central heating.
The region has roughly two weeks of reserves.
t.me/moldovasays/...
The region has roughly two weeks of reserves.
t.me/moldovasays/...
ТРИ МОЛДОВАНА 🇲🇩
❌Глава Минэкономразвития непризнанной Приднестровской Молдавской Республики Сергей Оболоник в ходе заседания оперативного штаба сообщил об отключении от теплоснабжения 131 школы и 147 детских садов из...
t.me
January 2, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Day 2 of Transnistria’s gas crisis. Transnistrian authorities saying 131 schools, 147 kindergartens, and 130 state buildings were disconnected from central heating.
The region has roughly two weeks of reserves.
t.me/moldovasays/...
The region has roughly two weeks of reserves.
t.me/moldovasays/...