Jacob Feuerstein
@agnes1972.bsky.social
Private sector meteorologist. Flooding/weather history enthusiast. From the Northeast, currently living in the Midwest. Thoughts are mine alone.
I have finally put together my thoughts on the enormity of Friday morning's Texas flood. Mostly it is a meditation on the historical context of such a hyper-local flood killing 104 people, something that really hasn't happened in nearly 50 years.
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/07/07/h...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/07/07/h...
Horrific Flood in Texas
In the early morning hours of July 4th, a deluge above the headwaters of the Guadalupe River sent a wave of water crashing downstream. The river’s level rapidly increased by about 100x, overw…
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
I have finally put together my thoughts on the enormity of Friday morning's Texas flood. Mostly it is a meditation on the historical context of such a hyper-local flood killing 104 people, something that really hasn't happened in nearly 50 years.
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/07/07/h...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/07/07/h...
Comparing WPC's seven-day rain forecast to some significant regional flood events of the last thirty years. A major flood outbreak seems likely by mid-weekend from ArkLaTex to the OH Valley.
March 31, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Comparing WPC's seven-day rain forecast to some significant regional flood events of the last thirty years. A major flood outbreak seems likely by mid-weekend from ArkLaTex to the OH Valley.
A new blog on what yesterday's tornado outbreak means in the broader context of high risk verification.
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/t...
The High Risk’s Identity Crisis
On Friday and Saturday, a remarkable multi-day tornado event swept the central US. The Storm Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service tasked with forecasting convective weather, is…
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
March 16, 2025 at 9:22 PM
A new blog on what yesterday's tornado outbreak means in the broader context of high risk verification.
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/t...
Decreased visibility here in Madison with what I suspect is dust, lofted in west Texas and advected northeast. Very cool. Definitely doesn't have the typical wildfire smoke smell.
March 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Decreased visibility here in Madison with what I suspect is dust, lofted in west Texas and advected northeast. Very cool. Definitely doesn't have the typical wildfire smoke smell.
A new blog about 2011's tornado season. I wrote it over the weekend, but I've seen a few people referencing the April 27 super-outbreak recently, so feels an appropriate time to post.
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/11/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/11/t...
The Year of the Tornado
A brief retrospective on 2011 A few days ago, I saw the following statistic in the Storm Prediction Center’s 2024 year-in-review post. It is, of course, very much true that 2024 was less dead…
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
March 12, 2025 at 12:55 AM
A new blog about 2011's tornado season. I wrote it over the weekend, but I've seen a few people referencing the April 27 super-outbreak recently, so feels an appropriate time to post.
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/11/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/11/t...
Top 20 tornado days, post-1950, by breadth of F3 tornado reports. This is defined as the size of a box drawn from the northwest to southeast that encompasses all intense tornadoes. This does not adjust for differences in longitude miles with latitude, sorry. Days with >3 F3 tornado reports included.
March 1, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Top 20 tornado days, post-1950, by breadth of F3 tornado reports. This is defined as the size of a box drawn from the northwest to southeast that encompasses all intense tornadoes. This does not adjust for differences in longitude miles with latitude, sorry. Days with >3 F3 tornado reports included.
I believe the number of fatalities in Kentucky crossed 20 with yesterday’s reporting from the Governor. This is a large death toll for a flood, probably the largest in winter in many decades.
Seeing a couple flash flood emergencies already for the corner of WV/VA. Conditions should continue to worsen into the overnight, especially as convection strengthens and moves through hard-hit areas. This is a major ongoing cold-season flood event.
February 22, 2025 at 1:09 PM
I believe the number of fatalities in Kentucky crossed 20 with yesterday’s reporting from the Governor. This is a large death toll for a flood, probably the largest in winter in many decades.
Seeing a couple flash flood emergencies already for the corner of WV/VA. Conditions should continue to worsen into the overnight, especially as convection strengthens and moves through hard-hit areas. This is a major ongoing cold-season flood event.
February 15, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Seeing a couple flash flood emergencies already for the corner of WV/VA. Conditions should continue to worsen into the overnight, especially as convection strengthens and moves through hard-hit areas. This is a major ongoing cold-season flood event.
One of the largest D3 moderate risks I've ever seen now up for this threat. Suspect we could be seeing a high risk in E KY/WV tomorrow, we'll see.
February 14, 2025 at 2:17 AM
One of the largest D3 moderate risks I've ever seen now up for this threat. Suspect we could be seeing a high risk in E KY/WV tomorrow, we'll see.
It's rained up to 6+ inches in KY/WV over the last 14 days. Another 1-3 inches of rain and snow QPF expected over the work week. On Saturday, all of the snow melts, and 5-8+" of rain could fall locally with training storms somewhere in this region. Could be a good setup for substantial flooding.
February 11, 2025 at 12:11 AM
It's rained up to 6+ inches in KY/WV over the last 14 days. Another 1-3 inches of rain and snow QPF expected over the work week. On Saturday, all of the snow melts, and 5-8+" of rain could fall locally with training storms somewhere in this region. Could be a good setup for substantial flooding.
I received a NYT alert earlier this afternoon with a push notification about Hurricane Helene and hurricane deaths in general. I thought the analysis was poor enough to warrant a blog with my thoughts.
[updated with correct link]
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/08/b...
[updated with correct link]
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/08/b...
Bad Analysis
My rebuttal to a New York Times article The New York Times is one of two papers I personally subscribe to, alongside the WSJ. I think they have unparalleled reporting on politics and world events, …
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
February 9, 2025 at 3:27 AM
I received a NYT alert earlier this afternoon with a push notification about Hurricane Helene and hurricane deaths in general. I thought the analysis was poor enough to warrant a blog with my thoughts.
[updated with correct link]
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/08/b...
[updated with correct link]
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/08/b...
Twelve years ago tonight, southern New England's worst snowstorm since 1888. I measured 38" in my backyard in south-central Connecticut. It isn't the whole story, but I blame this storm for really igniting my interest in weather.
February 9, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Twelve years ago tonight, southern New England's worst snowstorm since 1888. I measured 38" in my backyard in south-central Connecticut. It isn't the whole story, but I blame this storm for really igniting my interest in weather.
New blog post: a meditation on the most expensive weather events in US history
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/04/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/04/t...
The Most Expensive Weather Event
A meditation on the meaning behind a common statistic Over the second week of January, a handful of wildfires rapidly burned through urban corridors on the fringes of the Los Angeles metro area. A …
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
February 5, 2025 at 2:14 AM
New blog post: a meditation on the most expensive weather events in US history
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/04/t...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/04/t...
Given government-wide cuts to funding and staffing, I have contacted my elected federal officials imploring them to protect NOAA and the NWS. I encourage you to do the same, especially if you use weather data, and especially if you work outside of the government.
February 3, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Given government-wide cuts to funding and staffing, I have contacted my elected federal officials imploring them to protect NOAA and the NWS. I encourage you to do the same, especially if you use weather data, and especially if you work outside of the government.
A second blog post today, this one more personal than weather
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/w...
What am I Listening to?
This will be a rare non-weather blog, but sometimes I like to talk about myself. Around the end of 2024, Pitchfork posted a survey for snobbish music fans to list their top albums and songs of the …
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
February 1, 2025 at 8:45 PM
A second blog post today, this one more personal than weather
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/w...
New blog post: quantifying the flooding of 2024 jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/t...
The Flooding of 2024
Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the New NWPS API I’ve probably created dozens of random data analysis/plotting scripts over the last few years, mostly using pandas and matplotlib …
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
February 1, 2025 at 5:09 PM
New blog post: quantifying the flooding of 2024 jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/t...
Thanks to Helene, September 2024 has become the month with the third most record crests in the national AHPS database.
January 26, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Thanks to Helene, September 2024 has become the month with the third most record crests in the national AHPS database.
Map of observed snowfall from the great Gulf Coast snow storm of 1895
January 21, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Map of observed snowfall from the great Gulf Coast snow storm of 1895
An annual tradition- my top ten list of the year's weather events, ranked for a combination of atmospheric exceptionality and human impact. Check it out at my blog, which I'm thinking of re-activating:
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/30/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/30/w...
Weather of 2024
Every year since 2017- when I was a Junior in high school- I’ve created a list of the top ten annual weather events in some form. In high school, I posted to my forecast instagram account. In…
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com
December 31, 2024 at 12:29 AM
An annual tradition- my top ten list of the year's weather events, ranked for a combination of atmospheric exceptionality and human impact. Check it out at my blog, which I'm thinking of re-activating:
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/30/w...
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/30/w...
Reposted by Jacob Feuerstein
December 26th, 2004:
A magnitude 9.1 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that caused tremendous devastation throughout the Indian Ocean. The tsunami that followed killed more people than any other tsunami in recorded history, with 227,898 dead. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages...
A magnitude 9.1 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that caused tremendous devastation throughout the Indian Ocean. The tsunami that followed killed more people than any other tsunami in recorded history, with 227,898 dead. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages...
December 26, 2024 at 1:38 PM
December 26th, 2004:
A magnitude 9.1 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that caused tremendous devastation throughout the Indian Ocean. The tsunami that followed killed more people than any other tsunami in recorded history, with 227,898 dead. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages...
A magnitude 9.1 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that caused tremendous devastation throughout the Indian Ocean. The tsunami that followed killed more people than any other tsunami in recorded history, with 227,898 dead. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages...
Woke up to a decent amount of snow in northern Allegheny County, which was a pretty big surprise- apparently, some Erie bands targeted my location with extreme precision
December 21, 2024 at 5:02 PM
Woke up to a decent amount of snow in northern Allegheny County, which was a pretty big surprise- apparently, some Erie bands targeted my location with extreme precision
Trend in seasonal snow totals (via gridded NOHRSC snow data) over the last 16 years. Sad!
December 14, 2024 at 4:29 PM
Trend in seasonal snow totals (via gridded NOHRSC snow data) over the last 16 years. Sad!
Having some fun with NOHRSC gridded data
December 14, 2024 at 4:10 PM
Having some fun with NOHRSC gridded data
30.78 inches makes Helene one of the most prolific rain events ever recorded from a TC in the interior US. The only other hurricane to drop comparable rain in Appalachia- Camille- killed 150+ in Nelson County, VA. Helene dropped such rain over a considerably larger area.
December 12, 2024 at 11:33 PM
30.78 inches makes Helene one of the most prolific rain events ever recorded from a TC in the interior US. The only other hurricane to drop comparable rain in Appalachia- Camille- killed 150+ in Nelson County, VA. Helene dropped such rain over a considerably larger area.
Three years ago today, a defining and unforgettable weather event.
December 11, 2024 at 12:43 AM
Three years ago today, a defining and unforgettable weather event.