André Düsterhus
@aduesterhus.bsky.social
Scientist with a personal view on Statistics in Geo- & Earth Science. Working on data science, sea-level and long-term prediction.
Walking in a winter wonderland… my amateurish measurement gave 24cm this by morning on the balcony, and who would have thought that even CPH can have road trouble (poor guy who got stuck this morning for 20 minutes just as he wanted to drive the 20 m from the street to the car park).
February 6, 2026 at 5:42 AM
Walking in a winter wonderland… my amateurish measurement gave 24cm this by morning on the balcony, and who would have thought that even CPH can have road trouble (poor guy who got stuck this morning for 20 minutes just as he wanted to drive the 20 m from the street to the car park).
An interesting week of discussions came to an end in Lecce. Now it means going back to the much more grey North.
January 15, 2026 at 2:07 PM
An interesting week of discussions came to an end in Lecce. Now it means going back to the much more grey North.
End of year look at paper projects (* = first author):
published 2025: –
in review: PL, NW, ND
in write up: HY*, BG, KA, EA, KP
in work: TD*, IA*, HA + some on the horizon #researchlife
published 2025: –
in review: PL, NW, ND
in write up: HY*, BG, KA, EA, KP
in work: TD*, IA*, HA + some on the horizon #researchlife
January 5, 2026 at 8:27 PM
End of year look at paper projects (* = first author):
published 2025: –
in review: PL, NW, ND
in write up: HY*, BG, KA, EA, KP
in work: TD*, IA*, HA + some on the horizon #researchlife
published 2025: –
in review: PL, NW, ND
in write up: HY*, BG, KA, EA, KP
in work: TD*, IA*, HA + some on the horizon #researchlife
And back home again. Perhaps the last time with the old IC 3, as they will be replaced in the next months by the IC 5.
December 28, 2025 at 11:41 AM
And back home again. Perhaps the last time with the old IC 3, as they will be replaced in the next months by the IC 5.
Were the 15% statements by the students themselves or were it identified by a checking-software?
December 23, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Were the 15% statements by the students themselves or were it identified by a checking-software?
Well, there might be many who do not even remember all the one-off accounts they did over the years. Especially in case of email adresses weren't there apple who created one-off emails on the spot?
December 10, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Well, there might be many who do not even remember all the one-off accounts they did over the years. Especially in case of email adresses weren't there apple who created one-off emails on the spot?
Not sugar-coating it: We have a reviewing crisis!
It needs nowadays months to find reviewers, with potential reviewers exhausted and those suffering are mainly early career. Just waiting with a paper more than 3 months for a 2nd reviewer, with 12 unsucessful search rounds done. #fridayfrustration
It needs nowadays months to find reviewers, with potential reviewers exhausted and those suffering are mainly early career. Just waiting with a paper more than 3 months for a 2nd reviewer, with 12 unsucessful search rounds done. #fridayfrustration
December 5, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Not sugar-coating it: We have a reviewing crisis!
It needs nowadays months to find reviewers, with potential reviewers exhausted and those suffering are mainly early career. Just waiting with a paper more than 3 months for a 2nd reviewer, with 12 unsucessful search rounds done. #fridayfrustration
It needs nowadays months to find reviewers, with potential reviewers exhausted and those suffering are mainly early career. Just waiting with a paper more than 3 months for a 2nd reviewer, with 12 unsucessful search rounds done. #fridayfrustration
Cyber security is a tricky field, but when providers still work with outdated guidelines it becomes almost impossible to keep things save. #fridayfrustration
November 28, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Cyber security is a tricky field, but when providers still work with outdated guidelines it becomes almost impossible to keep things save. #fridayfrustration
Three exciting days at the workshop for annual to multi-decadal prediction in beautiful Bologna.
November 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Three exciting days at the workshop for annual to multi-decadal prediction in beautiful Bologna.
It confirmed a theory of mine before I could submit it. Well, might be an easier review now as it won't be just a speculation (but yeah, still needs a bit of time).
November 13, 2025 at 8:31 PM
It confirmed a theory of mine before I could submit it. Well, might be an easier review now as it won't be just a speculation (but yeah, still needs a bit of time).
Depends. The argument of the KI publishers is generally that it is not possible to extract source data. This court case claims otherwise. For everything KI is currently used, which has potentially data security implications, there might be new challenges ahead. KIs fault: Gives source data for free.
November 11, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Depends. The argument of the KI publishers is generally that it is not possible to extract source data. This court case claims otherwise. For everything KI is currently used, which has potentially data security implications, there might be new challenges ahead. KIs fault: Gives source data for free.
The consequences can be wider: Anybody publishing a KI result publicly might be liable, if what has been published might stem from a book or similar. As some KI learn sources behind paywalls the user is unable to check this. Consequently: Any posting of KI results might be a risk. We‘ll see.
November 11, 2025 at 6:25 PM
The consequences can be wider: Anybody publishing a KI result publicly might be liable, if what has been published might stem from a book or similar. As some KI learn sources behind paywalls the user is unable to check this. Consequently: Any posting of KI results might be a risk. We‘ll see.
In this case it is about republishing without licence. So if a song (or its lyrics) gets published in the web without getting the ok from the licence holder this is copyright infringement and you become liable. Same with any streaming service and in this case KI repeating close enough lyrics online.
November 11, 2025 at 5:35 PM
In this case it is about republishing without licence. So if a song (or its lyrics) gets published in the web without getting the ok from the licence holder this is copyright infringement and you become liable. Same with any streaming service and in this case KI repeating close enough lyrics online.
Reposted by André Düsterhus
Europe’s #heatwaves are not only getting hotter — they’re becoming more chaotic.
A new #NatureCommunications study by Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga (ESRAH, Univ. Hamburg) shows how soil moisture fuels extremes in Central and Northern Europe.
🔗 www.esrah.uni-hamburg.de/about/news/0...
A new #NatureCommunications study by Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga (ESRAH, Univ. Hamburg) shows how soil moisture fuels extremes in Central and Northern Europe.
🔗 www.esrah.uni-hamburg.de/about/news/0...
October 30, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Europe’s #heatwaves are not only getting hotter — they’re becoming more chaotic.
A new #NatureCommunications study by Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga (ESRAH, Univ. Hamburg) shows how soil moisture fuels extremes in Central and Northern Europe.
🔗 www.esrah.uni-hamburg.de/about/news/0...
A new #NatureCommunications study by Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga (ESRAH, Univ. Hamburg) shows how soil moisture fuels extremes in Central and Northern Europe.
🔗 www.esrah.uni-hamburg.de/about/news/0...
Reposted by André Düsterhus
🌊🧊🇦🇶
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves - Nature
The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
🌊🧊🇦🇶
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
Yes, the 6-9 m is a good estimate, but there are many uncertainties around it. It is probably best seen as the agreed compromise, as it is complicate to get indicators in line with the models (my old take on it: academic.oup.com/gji/article/...). Not even talking about the statistical assumptions.
Estimating the sea level highstand during the last interglacial: a probabilistic massive ensemble approach
Abstract. Essential to understanding sea level change and its causes during the last interglacial (LIG) is the quantification of uncertainties. In order to
academic.oup.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Yes, the 6-9 m is a good estimate, but there are many uncertainties around it. It is probably best seen as the agreed compromise, as it is complicate to get indicators in line with the models (my old take on it: academic.oup.com/gji/article/...). Not even talking about the statistical assumptions.
Might it mean that libraries in DK are able to afford more books now?
August 22, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Might it mean that libraries in DK are able to afford more books now?
Reposted by André Düsterhus
Advertising this PhD student position once more (deadline 30 August) workingat.nioz.nl/o/phd-positi...
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
NIOZ - PhD-position "Overturning the ocean''
The department of Ocean Systems (OCS) at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research (NIOZ) is looking for an enthusiastic and motivated PhD candidate to work on the exchange of lighter and denser
workingat.nioz.nl
August 20, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Advertising this PhD student position once more (deadline 30 August) workingat.nioz.nl/o/phd-positi...
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Yes. Or simpler: taking n years, calculate the anomaly towards the mean by ENSO state (so their annula cycle, probably from Aug/Sep each year starting) and then reranking them after they are corrected. Might be a relative straight rise (as it would also correct for annual cycles).
August 14, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Yes. Or simpler: taking n years, calculate the anomaly towards the mean by ENSO state (so their annula cycle, probably from Aug/Sep each year starting) and then reranking them after they are corrected. Might be a relative straight rise (as it would also correct for annual cycles).
How would the table look like, if we would calculate the anomalies towards years with El Niño, La Niña or Neutral (whatever fits the actual year)?
August 14, 2025 at 4:10 PM
How would the table look like, if we would calculate the anomalies towards years with El Niño, La Niña or Neutral (whatever fits the actual year)?
The second link delivers "Page not found".
August 11, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The second link delivers "Page not found".
Best time to cycle the roads in IRL (some might say the only) is Sunday mornings. The elderly are stitting in the church and the others negotiate their pints from the night before. So it is quiet on the roads and halfway safe (unless someone is late to church or comes too late home from the pints).
August 8, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Best time to cycle the roads in IRL (some might say the only) is Sunday mornings. The elderly are stitting in the church and the others negotiate their pints from the night before. So it is quiet on the roads and halfway safe (unless someone is late to church or comes too late home from the pints).
The history and rivalary between cars and bikes in Ireland is a complex one. Mixed with often much too narrow roads and the wide spread lack of cycle paths (due to the complex history) lead to the rest.
August 5, 2025 at 7:22 PM
The history and rivalary between cars and bikes in Ireland is a complex one. Mixed with often much too narrow roads and the wide spread lack of cycle paths (due to the complex history) lead to the rest.
Not really surprising or? The failure to get this important connection in place in time tells a lot. That the connection must be biuild is clear since 2009, but 20 years are obviously not enough. Major consequence: If the danish side is finished people will use car/bus. www.ndr.de/nachrichten/...
Fehmarnsund-Tunnel wohl erst 2032 fertig - Kreis Ostholstein fordert mehr Planungsspielraum
Das zeigen Einschätzungen des Eisenbahnbundesamts, die in der vergangenen Woche im Dialogforum zur Hinterlandanbindung besprochen worden sind.
www.ndr.de
July 24, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Not really surprising or? The failure to get this important connection in place in time tells a lot. That the connection must be biuild is clear since 2009, but 20 years are obviously not enough. Major consequence: If the danish side is finished people will use car/bus. www.ndr.de/nachrichten/...