Richard Weitz
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richardweitzdc.bsky.social
Richard Weitz
@richardweitzdc.bsky.social

Washington-DC based international security analyst

Political science 69%
Sociology 7%

Korea On Point just published my piece on "how the Russia–Ukraine war’s ripple effect is reshaping Asia’s security.
As Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang tighten ties, Seoul and Washington face rising escalation risks on the Korean Peninsula."
Read more: koreaonpoint.org/articles/art...

Reposted by Richard Weitz

Prospects for an imminent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest appear to be fading, judging by new signals from Moscow.
Chances dwindle of quick Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest 
Top Russian official says “no agreement” so far on meeting between top diplomats Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio.
www.politico.eu

theasanforum.org/middle-east-...

This article first reviews the reactions of the Russian, Chinese, and Indian governments. The next section evaluates the reasons for their modest response. The final section considers potential future developments.
Middle East Crises Highlight Constrained Russia-China-India Cooperation - The Asan Forum
Middle East Crises Highlight Constrained Russia-China-India Cooperation Richard Weitz, Hudson Institute1 The Middle East has experienced waves of conflicts since the Hamas terrorist organization attac...
theasanforum.org

For additional analysis please see: www.hudson.org/security-all...

My analysis of the Trump-Putin summit: eagleintelreports.com/alaska-summi...

"Rather than a watershed moment in the Ukraine war and in US policy towards Russia, we should see the summit as contributing to a dynamic process that could eventually lead to a range of possible outcomes. "
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit: Shaping War and Peace
At the end of last week, the diplomatic world was shocked to learn of a potential breakthrough regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war.
eagleintelreports.com

Reposted by Richard Weitz

Journalists: Please join us at the @outrider.org Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!

This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.

🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...
2025 Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit
This fall, in a former nuclear missile silo, we'll convene journalists at the nexus of health, climate, artificial intelligence, outer space, and national security to discuss how these issues are inte...
outrider.org

Takeaways (cont.):
• A peace deal with Ukraine could allow Russia to devote more security resources to Central Asia while reducing Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s importance to sanctions circumvention.
Takeaways (cont.):
• Western sanctions have spurred Chinese, Kazakhstani, and Uzbekistani efforts to construct alternative transportation routes and pursue foreign markets outside Russian territory.
Takeaways (cont.):
• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have constrained their security cooperation with Russia, but their economic ties with Russia and China have strengthened substantially.

Takeaways (cont.):
• Western sanctions have spurred Chinese, Kazakhstani, and Uzbekistani efforts to construct alternative transportation routes and pursue foreign markets outside Russian territory.
Takeaways (cont.):
• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have constrained their security cooperation with Russia, but their economic ties with Russia and China have strengthened substantially.
Takeaways: (cont.)
• China has pursued a less assertive stance toward potential territorial conflicts in Central Asia than in other regions.
• The transformation of Eurasian energy markets promotes Sino-Russian cooperation and provides Moscow and Beijing with additional leverage over Central Asia.

Takeaways (cont.):
• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have constrained their security cooperation with Russia, but their economic ties with Russia and China have strengthened substantially.
Takeaways: (cont.)
• China has pursued a less assertive stance toward potential territorial conflicts in Central Asia than in other regions.
• The transformation of Eurasian energy markets promotes Sino-Russian cooperation and provides Moscow and Beijing with additional leverage over Central Asia.
Takeaways
• Central Asia has been a bellwether of the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Russia accounts for almost all of Kazakhstan’s imported weapons systems, while Uzbekistan buys most of its imported arms from Russia.

Takeaways: (cont.)
• China has pursued a less assertive stance toward potential territorial conflicts in Central Asia than in other regions.
• The transformation of Eurasian energy markets promotes Sino-Russian cooperation and provides Moscow and Beijing with additional leverage over Central Asia.
Takeaways
• Central Asia has been a bellwether of the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Russia accounts for almost all of Kazakhstan’s imported weapons systems, while Uzbekistan buys most of its imported arms from Russia.
Our fourth RSI-funded report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Central Asia: Preliminary Summary,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...

Takeaways
• Central Asia has been a bellwether of the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Russia accounts for almost all of Kazakhstan’s imported weapons systems, while Uzbekistan buys most of its imported arms from Russia.
Our fourth RSI-funded report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Central Asia: Preliminary Summary,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...
Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Central Asia: Preliminary Summary
View PDF Executive Summary
www.hudson.org

Our fourth RSI-funded report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Central Asia: Preliminary Summary,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...
Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Central Asia: Preliminary Summary
View PDF Executive Summary
www.hudson.org

Takeaways (cont.)
• Despite differences regarding the SCO and the organization’s declining relative importance to Russia and China, the two countries have sustained a robust security partnership within the organization and in Central Asia.
Takeaways (cont.)
• Participating in SCO exercises provided the Chinese military with some of its first opportunities to rehearse power projection capabilities.
• The SCO has ceased holding its large Peace Mission series of exercises; other drills occur but less regularly.
Takeaways
• Though not a mutual defense alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains the most important multilateral security structure in Central Asia that includes both Russia and China.

Takeaways (cont.)
• Participating in SCO exercises provided the Chinese military with some of its first opportunities to rehearse power projection capabilities.
• The SCO has ceased holding its large Peace Mission series of exercises; other drills occur but less regularly.
Takeaways
• Though not a mutual defense alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains the most important multilateral security structure in Central Asia that includes both Russia and China.
Our third RSI-funded report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...

Takeaways
• Though not a mutual defense alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains the most important multilateral security structure in Central Asia that includes both Russia and China.
Our third RSI-funded report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...
Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
View PDF Takeaways
www.hudson.org

Our third RSI-funded report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...
Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
View PDF Takeaways
www.hudson.org
At the very beginning of their professional lives, some young people have had their summer internships derailed by the Department of Government Efficiency.
Collateral Damage in Federal Work Force Cuts: Summer Interns
www.nytimes.com
Scientists have released the closest images ever taken near the sun, captured by NASA’s Parker Solar Probe flying 3.8 million miles above the solar surface.

See more images of solar eruptions on the sun: wapo.st/3Irm3P3

Takeaways (cont)
• The new BRICS Plus format could provide another multilateral structure for deepening collaboration among Russia, China, and Uzbekistan.
Takeaways (cont)
• Uzbekistan is becoming a linchpin for Russia’s and China’s separate regional integration projects, which have not yet caused significant Sino-Russian friction.
• Uzbekistan could seek additional Russian and Chinese assistance to manage potential threats from Afghanistan.
Takeaways
• Russian-Uzbekistani defense ties have grown substantially during the past decade, while Uzbekistan’s military relations with China remain modest.
• Russia, China, and Uzbekistan cooperate best on counterterrorism, transportation, and energy issues.

Takeaways (cont)
• Uzbekistan is becoming a linchpin for Russia’s and China’s separate regional integration projects, which have not yet caused significant Sino-Russian friction.
• Uzbekistan could seek additional Russian and Chinese assistance to manage potential threats from Afghanistan.
Takeaways
• Russian-Uzbekistani defense ties have grown substantially during the past decade, while Uzbekistan’s military relations with China remain modest.
• Russia, China, and Uzbekistan cooperate best on counterterrorism, transportation, and energy issues.
Our second report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Uzbekistan,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...

Takeaways
• Russian-Uzbekistani defense ties have grown substantially during the past decade, while Uzbekistan’s military relations with China remain modest.
• Russia, China, and Uzbekistan cooperate best on counterterrorism, transportation, and energy issues.
Our second report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Uzbekistan,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...
Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Uzbekistan
View PDF Takeaways
www.hudson.org

Our second report on Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia, “Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Uzbekistan,” has been published at www.hudson.org/security-all...
Sino-Russian Interactions Regarding Uzbekistan
View PDF Takeaways
www.hudson.org

My analysis of "China, Russia, and the Israel-Iran War: Cracks in the Axis?," is available at www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3aF...
China, Russia, and the Israel-Iran War: Cracks in the Axis?
YouTube video by Wikistrat
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Richard Weitz

I am honored to contribute with @mattkorda.bsky.social the chapter on world nuclear forces in the 2025 SIPRI Yearbook that went public today: www.sipri.org/media/press-... A PDF of the chapter is here: www.sipri.org/sites/defaul... @sipri.org
Nuclear risks grow as new arms race looms—new SIPRI Yearbook out now
(Stockholm, 16 June 2025) The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) today launches its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. Key findi...
www.sipri.org

Reposted by Richard Weitz

Mine and Julia Macdonald's new podcast on autonomy--from mines to missiles to drones--is now available! Follow the people behind America's unmanned arsenal from the revolutionary war to Afghanistan, Ukraine, and looking to the future.
www.hoover.org/research/epi...
Episode 1: The Hand Behind Unmanned – America’s Quest For Autonomous War
What are unmanned weapons and where did America’s quest for autonomy begin?
www.hoover.org

Reposted by Richard Weitz

Audacious Ukrainian drone attack on Russian bomber bases. Several Tu-95 strategic and Tu-22 regional bombers destroyed or damaged. Both types are dual-capable and have been used to bomb Ukraine for years. Illustrates extraordinary vulnerability of bombers. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...
Ukraine launches major drone attack on Russian bombers, security official says
Reported strikes on four airbases in Siberia mark escalation in cross-border incursions before planned peace talks
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Richard Weitz

We're now within the 7-day moratorium on new public opinion polls ahead of the ROK presidential election. The last weekly poll from Gallup Korea has Lee (45%) with a clear lead over Kim (36%) and Lee June-seok (10%).