Washington-DC based international security analyst
As Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang tighten ties, Seoul and Washington face rising escalation risks on the Korean Peninsula."
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Reposted by Richard Weitz
This article first reviews the reactions of the Russian, Chinese, and Indian governments. The next section evaluates the reasons for their modest response. The final section considers potential future developments.
"Rather than a watershed moment in the Ukraine war and in US policy towards Russia, we should see the summit as contributing to a dynamic process that could eventually lead to a range of possible outcomes. "
Reposted by Richard Weitz
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• Western sanctions have spurred Chinese, Kazakhstani, and Uzbekistani efforts to construct alternative transportation routes and pursue foreign markets outside Russian territory.
• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have constrained their security cooperation with Russia, but their economic ties with Russia and China have strengthened substantially.
• A peace deal with Ukraine could allow Russia to devote more security resources to Central Asia while reducing Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s importance to sanctions circumvention.
• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have constrained their security cooperation with Russia, but their economic ties with Russia and China have strengthened substantially.
• China has pursued a less assertive stance toward potential territorial conflicts in Central Asia than in other regions.
• The transformation of Eurasian energy markets promotes Sino-Russian cooperation and provides Moscow and Beijing with additional leverage over Central Asia.
• Western sanctions have spurred Chinese, Kazakhstani, and Uzbekistani efforts to construct alternative transportation routes and pursue foreign markets outside Russian territory.
• China has pursued a less assertive stance toward potential territorial conflicts in Central Asia than in other regions.
• The transformation of Eurasian energy markets promotes Sino-Russian cooperation and provides Moscow and Beijing with additional leverage over Central Asia.
• Central Asia has been a bellwether of the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Russia accounts for almost all of Kazakhstan’s imported weapons systems, while Uzbekistan buys most of its imported arms from Russia.
• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have constrained their security cooperation with Russia, but their economic ties with Russia and China have strengthened substantially.
• Central Asia has been a bellwether of the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Russia accounts for almost all of Kazakhstan’s imported weapons systems, while Uzbekistan buys most of its imported arms from Russia.
• China has pursued a less assertive stance toward potential territorial conflicts in Central Asia than in other regions.
• The transformation of Eurasian energy markets promotes Sino-Russian cooperation and provides Moscow and Beijing with additional leverage over Central Asia.
• Central Asia has been a bellwether of the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Russia accounts for almost all of Kazakhstan’s imported weapons systems, while Uzbekistan buys most of its imported arms from Russia.
• Participating in SCO exercises provided the Chinese military with some of its first opportunities to rehearse power projection capabilities.
• The SCO has ceased holding its large Peace Mission series of exercises; other drills occur but less regularly.
• Though not a mutual defense alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains the most important multilateral security structure in Central Asia that includes both Russia and China.
• Despite differences regarding the SCO and the organization’s declining relative importance to Russia and China, the two countries have sustained a robust security partnership within the organization and in Central Asia.
• Though not a mutual defense alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains the most important multilateral security structure in Central Asia that includes both Russia and China.
• Participating in SCO exercises provided the Chinese military with some of its first opportunities to rehearse power projection capabilities.
• The SCO has ceased holding its large Peace Mission series of exercises; other drills occur but less regularly.
• Though not a mutual defense alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) remains the most important multilateral security structure in Central Asia that includes both Russia and China.
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• Uzbekistan is becoming a linchpin for Russia’s and China’s separate regional integration projects, which have not yet caused significant Sino-Russian friction.
• Uzbekistan could seek additional Russian and Chinese assistance to manage potential threats from Afghanistan.
• Russian-Uzbekistani defense ties have grown substantially during the past decade, while Uzbekistan’s military relations with China remain modest.
• Russia, China, and Uzbekistan cooperate best on counterterrorism, transportation, and energy issues.
• The new BRICS Plus format could provide another multilateral structure for deepening collaboration among Russia, China, and Uzbekistan.
• Russian-Uzbekistani defense ties have grown substantially during the past decade, while Uzbekistan’s military relations with China remain modest.
• Russia, China, and Uzbekistan cooperate best on counterterrorism, transportation, and energy issues.
• Uzbekistan is becoming a linchpin for Russia’s and China’s separate regional integration projects, which have not yet caused significant Sino-Russian friction.
• Uzbekistan could seek additional Russian and Chinese assistance to manage potential threats from Afghanistan.
• Russian-Uzbekistani defense ties have grown substantially during the past decade, while Uzbekistan’s military relations with China remain modest.
• Russia, China, and Uzbekistan cooperate best on counterterrorism, transportation, and energy issues.
Reposted by Richard Weitz
Reposted by Richard Weitz
www.hoover.org/research/epi...
Reposted by Richard Weitz
Reposted by Richard Weitz