Michael Kofman

@michaelkofman.bsky.social

44K followers 81 following 300 posts

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.

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Michael Kofman is an American military analyst known for his expertise on the Russian Armed Forces. He is the former director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, fellow of the Center for a New American Security, and until 2021 was a fellow of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center. .. more

Political science 73%

Economics 11%

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

Brian Whitmore @powervertical.bsky.social · 2d

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak to the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the battle for Pokrovsk and what it means for the broader trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/11/07/t...

THE POKROVSK ENDGAME – AND AFTERMATH

powervertical · THE BATTLE OF POKROVSK Russia continues to focus its firepower on the strategic and battered eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said th…

www.powervertical.org

Reposted by Michael Kofman

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Perhaps remarkably the city has been held for over a year, forcing Russian forces to expend manpower fighting for it, and try go around it. Though over time it turned from a useful defensive anchor to another salient, which has proven increasingly difficult to maintain. /12

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Russia’s advance this year has been lackluster, especially along the axes they prioritized. The costs have been high as well relative to the amount of terrain gained. But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses. 11/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

The city holds operational value. Its loss widens the Russian axis of advance in Donetsk west of the Kramatorsk conglomeration of towns, but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken. Hence the impact of losing Pokrovsk should not be overstated. 10/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

The challenge is that drones now effect fire control in 15-20km depths such that it is not possible to withdraw equipment, and much harder to extract people from the pocket (especially from any forward positions). It is no longer possible to wait to the last minute. 9/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

The conditions are arguably better than the circumstances around Avdiivka in 2024. Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won’t generate it. Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can’t result in operationally significant breakthroughs. 8/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units further back. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset its defense. 7/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Ukraine has brought in reinforcements and elite units to stabilize the flanks. They are counterattacking, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. 6/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

As Russian forces accumulated in Pokrovsk they increasingly began to bring in drone teams, and operate drones from the city itself, widening the contested area around the city and interdicting logistics. 5/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps, which took over the situation in July, has had the unenviable task of stabilizing the situation given deteriorating conditions, lack of reserves, and manning levels of deployed units. The geometry of the battle has long been unfavorable. 4/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Earlier in the summer AFU units were working to stem the infiltration. The Russian advance at Dobropillia to some extent forced a shift of attention & resources. A lack of operational reserves has long resulted in a ‘firefighting’ approach to counter advances across the line. 3/

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather, especially fog, enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 2/

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)

Reposted by Michael Kofman

Reposted by Christian Odendahl

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds.
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Ukrainian Drone Unit Commander Shares Lessons from the Front - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

Reposted by Michael Kofman

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