Michael Kofman
@michaelkofman.bsky.social
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
Recently met this great UA customs inspector
July 26, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Recently met this great UA customs inspector
Observing the Finnish Army train with Jack Watling. Thanks to the Karelia Brigade for hosting us and to Finnish colleagues for the thoughtful exchanges we had this week.
February 20, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Observing the Finnish Army train with Jack Watling. Thanks to the Karelia Brigade for hosting us and to Finnish colleagues for the thoughtful exchanges we had this week.
Shout out to analysts at DeepState UA. An invaluable resource for anyone following this war and with a great interactive map. t.me/DeepStateUA
February 14, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Shout out to analysts at DeepState UA. An invaluable resource for anyone following this war and with a great interactive map. t.me/DeepStateUA
Just completed another field study in Ukraine with fellow analysts. Great to visit with some of the elite drone units, like Madyar’s 414th, which has recently been expanded into a brigade. More thoughts to follow.
February 14, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Just completed another field study in Ukraine with fellow analysts. Great to visit with some of the elite drone units, like Madyar’s 414th, which has recently been expanded into a brigade. More thoughts to follow.
The composition varies quite a bit over the course of a war. If we look at the first few months of the war, captured Russian docs suggested a 3.4 WIA to KIA ratio, and 5.7:1 when considering MIA, POWs, etc.
January 12, 2025 at 4:12 PM
The composition varies quite a bit over the course of a war. If we look at the first few months of the war, captured Russian docs suggested a 3.4 WIA to KIA ratio, and 5.7:1 when considering MIA, POWs, etc.
To me, the category that matters most from a loss perspective is killed in action, seriously injured, and missing in action, i.e. unrecoverable losses. But, countries and even services within the same military diverge on how they record wounded in action. sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R... 3/
January 12, 2025 at 3:17 PM
To me, the category that matters most from a loss perspective is killed in action, seriously injured, and missing in action, i.e. unrecoverable losses. But, countries and even services within the same military diverge on how they record wounded in action. sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R... 3/
It’s time for the annual discussions about what qualifies as a good Christmas movie.
December 24, 2024 at 2:15 PM
It’s time for the annual discussions about what qualifies as a good Christmas movie.
HTS public messaging towards Russia has been surprisingly expedient given Russia's actions in support of Assad's regime. I don't know how much anyone should read into that. A lot depends on what happens once Damascus falls, and the governing agreements made between various groups. 8/
December 7, 2024 at 6:54 PM
HTS public messaging towards Russia has been surprisingly expedient given Russia's actions in support of Assad's regime. I don't know how much anyone should read into that. A lot depends on what happens once Damascus falls, and the governing agreements made between various groups. 8/
Tragic story. Chris’ post shows a city that is now in ruin. This is Bakhmut as I last saw it during the battle earlier this year.
December 17, 2023 at 2:02 PM
Tragic story. Chris’ post shows a city that is now in ruin. This is Bakhmut as I last saw it during the battle earlier this year.
People often ask about morale. Fall brings mud and rain. The war grinds on. Everyone at the front has issues they’re working through. Anecdotally, most places I had been to recently morale was positive. Ran into this gent welding a cage onto a modified support vehicle.
November 18, 2023 at 1:37 PM
People often ask about morale. Fall brings mud and rain. The war grinds on. Everyone at the front has issues they’re working through. Anecdotally, most places I had been to recently morale was positive. Ran into this gent welding a cage onto a modified support vehicle.