Michael Jakob
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Michael Jakob
@ct-economics.bsky.social

Independent researcher and consultant - climate economics

Economics 41%
Energy 20%

Read more in my (open access) book on climate optimism: doi.org/10.1007/978-...
The Case Against Climate Doom
This open access book provides hope against climate pessimism and outline practical ways to combat climate change.
doi.org

Even though such ‘command-and-control’ policies are less flexible than a carbon price, they increase long-term credibility and can thus complement market-based instruments (doi.org/10.1016/j.en...).
Redirecting
doi.org

Numerous countries also ban installing certain types of fossil heating. For instance, France, Ireland, Luxemburg, Norway, the UK, the city of Vancouver, and some US municipalities do not allow oil or gas heating in new buildings.
www.4i-traction.eu

Many jurisdictions have announced mandates to phase out petrol cars and Norway is already close to its targets to only register zero-emission vehicles (see figure).
Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Passenger cars and vans/light trucks (April 2025) - International Council on Clean Transportation
theicct.org

Net-zero by 2050 means that no new coal plants will need to be built and existing ones retired early. Fortunately, construction of coal plants has slowed down significantly. Even if China builds some new ones as back-up capacities, coal use is destined to decline there as well.
energyandcleanair.org

Reasons for climate optimism – part 14

Targets to phase out coal, internal combustion engines and fossil heating are important elements of the climate policy portfolio to ensure the credibility of long-term targets.

Read more in my (open access) book on climate optimism: doi.org/10.1007/978-...
The Case Against Climate Doom
This open access book provides hope against climate pessimism and outline practical ways to combat climate change.
doi.org

According to the OECD environmental policy stringency index, which measures ambition on a scale from 1 to 10, average policy stringency has increased from 4.3 in 2000 to 6.3 in 2020, mostly due to more ambitious policies in emerging economies.
The climate actions and policies measurement framework
There are major gaps in the measurement of the adoption and stringency of countries’ climate actions and policies, notably in a manner coherent across countries, time, sectors and instrument types. Th...
www.oecd-ilibrary.org

Countries with a larger number of climate policies display slower growth in emissions or larger reductions. Global emissions are estimated to be about 11% lower today than they would be in a counterfactual case without existing national climate policies.
Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation - Nature Climate Change
Climate change laws are shown to reduce national CO2 emissions by 0.78% in their first three years and 1.79% in the longer term. These reductions add up to 38 GtCO2 of avoided emissions for 1999–2016—...
www.nature.com

There are currently more than 5,000 climate laws and policies in place globally. 90 countries have RE targets for total energy consumption, 170 have adopted RE targets for the power sector. More than 70 countries have policies to reduce deforestation and more than 140 have adaptation measures .
Law and Policy Search - Climate Change Laws of the World
The Climate Change Laws of the World database gives you access to national-level climate change legislation and policies from around the world.
climate-laws.org

The last 20 years have witnessed increasing adoption of climate policies around the world. By the end of 2019, G20 countries had more than 1,600 policies to reduce GHG emissions in place, up from a little more than 70 in 2000 (see figure from doi.org/10.1080/1469...).

Reasons for climate optimism – part 13

A growing number of countries are putting into place national climate laws and the institutional structures to implement effective climate policies.

Reposted by Michael Jakob

Waren wir bei fossilen Energien abhängig von #Russland, sind wir es bei der #Energiewende von #China. Wie sich solche Abhängigkeiten überwinden lassen, hat der Klimaökonom Michael Jakob untersucht. Die Wege sind vielfältig. 👉 www.energiezukunft.eu/wirtschaft/a...

Read more in my (open access) book on climate optimism: doi.org/10.1007/978-...
The Case Against Climate Doom
This open access book provides hope against climate pessimism and outline practical ways to combat climate change.
doi.org

Net-zero targets can increase the long-term credibility of climate policy and spark initiatives to phase out emitting activities, such as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance.

All of the G20 member states except Mexico have adopted net-zero targets, and some already have devised concrete plans to achieve this (see table). In addition, more than 400 regions or cities and more than 1,000 companies have adopted net-zero targets.

Following the lead of Bhutan, the first country to adopt a net-zero target in 2015, more than 150 countries have since followed suit. About 90% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, population, and gross domestic product are now covered by net-zero targets.
Net Zero Tracker | Welcome
We analyse all countries and territories, every region in the 25 largest emitting countries and all cities with 500,000+ inhabitants.
zerotracker.net

Reasons for climate optimism – part 12

More than 150 countries and many sub-national actors have adopted net-zero targets that guide the formulation of concrete climate strategies.

Assuming that import dependence is the manifestation of one or more market failures, policy makers can implement measures to promote domestic production and diversify supply chains for goods that are deemed to be of strategic importance (see Table).

We disentangle these two different sets of motivations by analyzing which market failures might result in too little domestic production or too little diversification.

From a welfare economics perspective, a competitive market equilibrium without market failures and without government intervention in domestic or international markets leads to efficient trade flows and import volumes.

In the mid- and long-term, securing domestic production capacities for e.g. electric vehicles or batteries to boost competitiveness constitute a motivation to reduce import dependence (see Figure).

We speak of 'dependence' when imports represent a high share of total domestic consumption and are sourced from few supplier countries or just one supplier country. Short-term concerns focus on security of supply of e.g. gas and oil imports.

Clean energy goods are not only crucial to achieve international climate targets but are also increasingly regarded as important drivers of economic growth and employment. China currently dominates international supply chains for solar panels, batteries, and electrolysers for hydrogen (see Figure).

New CEEPR working paper on how to address import dependence for clean energy technologies and critical raw materials with @mkalkuhl.bsky.social , Robert Marschinski, @mehling.bsky.social, @joschkawanner.bsky.social kawanner.bsky.social.
The Economic Logic of Policies to Address Import Dependence in Clean Energy Goods -
The fragmentation of global supply chains and rising geopolitical tensions have spurred concerns about import dependence. These concerns are particularly […]
ceepr.mit.edu

Finally, we relate the saving on imported fossil fuels to the investment costs to install renewable capacities to compensate for the reduction in fossil energy use. Meeting NDCs would provide sufficient savings on imported fossil energy to meet more than 70% of the RE investment costs.

Looking forward, we project energy use and net imports in the case without additional climate policies and when countries achieve their NDCs. We show how climate policy would also reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels (see figure).

Looking back, we develop a novel decomposition method to account for the role of energy trade for carbon intensity. We find that in almost all ASEAN members, energy imports were linked to rising carbon intensity (see figure).

We assess the historical linkages between energy trade and greenhouse gas emissions. We then discuss how future developments might affect energy trade patterns and highlight how a shift away from fossil fuels can lower dependence on energy imports.

Since the year 2000, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have grown in all ten ASEAM member countries.

There is a general trend towards higher energy imports in the region over the last decade (see figure) and most of them are net energy importers.