Franck Portier | Lightnews

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · Aug 18

@deriddermaarten.bsky.social & Łukasz Rachel show that when quantified using recent estimates of the costs of #climatechange, emissions-adjusted productivity #growth has accelerated in recent years.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graphs of productivity growth and US carbon emissions.

Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of climate change, the adjustment to productivity for emissions is small. When quantified using recent (high) estimates of the economic costs of climate change, emissions-adjusted productivity growth has accelerated – rather than slowed down – in recent years.

Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 @tkehoe.bsky.social · Feb 17

A beautiful day in Minneapolis, but cold: -15 F, -26 C.

Un día hermoso en Minneapolis, pero frío: -15 F, -26 C.

Royal Economic Society @resmedia.bsky.social · Jan 28

📢CALL FOR PAPERS

The Economic Journal Special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR

@oupprimary.bsky.social #EconSky

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · Apr 28

American students turn to UK as Trump takes aim at US universities

https://www.ft.com/content/ebb2b7e7-5dea-47a2-8386-f12eda692c0f

American students turn to UK as Trump takes aim at US universities

Searches for British courses surge following US president’s assault on Ivy League institutions, data shows

www.ft.com

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Feb 17

As often, you are right Tim.

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Feb 17

A cold day in Minneapolis, but beautiful...

Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 @tkehoe.bsky.social · Feb 17

A beautiful day in Minneapolis, but cold: -15 F, -26 C.

Un día hermoso en Minneapolis, pero frío: -15 F, -26 C.

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Feb 4

I suspect Kim is only interested in engineering exogenous variations in tariffs to better estimate trade elasticities.

Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 @tkehoe.bsky.social · Feb 4

Prof. Kim Ruhl (UMN PhD 2004) of University of Wisconsin-Madison has been named as one of 3 members of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. I admire Kim for his service to our country, and I hope he is able to have a favorable influence on US economic policy.
news.wisc.edu/uw-madison-e...

UW–Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl appointed as member of President’s Council of Economic Advisers

Established by Congress in 1946, the CEA comprises three economists who advise the U.S. president on a wide range of economic policy issues based on data, research and evidence.

news.wisc.edu

Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 @tkehoe.bsky.social · Feb 4

Prof. Kim Ruhl (UMN PhD 2004) of University of Wisconsin-Madison has been named as one of 3 members of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. I admire Kim for his service to our country, and I hope he is able to have a favorable influence on US economic policy.
news.wisc.edu/uw-madison-e...

UW–Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl appointed as member of President’s Council of Economic Advisers

Established by Congress in 1946, the CEA comprises three economists who advise the U.S. president on a wide range of economic policy issues based on data, research and evidence.

news.wisc.edu

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

#Econtwitter I forgot: Paul is presenting « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » @nberpubs Macroannual conf on Friday. Check out there for program, Youtube channel, etc…
t.co/1jVAhdQ8Ju

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

A link to the paper @ nber
www.nber.org/papers/w32322

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

A link to the paper @ cepr t.co/0kQjKNktdy

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

Lesson for monetary policy: raising interest rates to reduce labour market tightness is ineffective. One would have needed to curb down inflation expectations. Communication may be key (nothing in the paper on this).
Thanks for your time. 9/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

With a bit of deviation from full knowledge of the true model of the economy, this generates persistent quasi self-fulfilling inflation episodes. A full model is estimated and shows the dominant role of broad-based supply shock in the recent period. 8/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

Confronted with an increase in many prices, agents put more weight on inflation being high, and revise accordingly their expectations Expectations then feed back into actual inflation. 7/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

Here is our conjecture: agents form expectations by trying to extract a common component from disaggregated price data. Let’s assume that there are broad-based supply shocks increasing many (but not all) prices. 6/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

We then show that given flatness and non persistent supply shocks, a Rat. Exp. model of the Phillips Curve cannot account for the recent inflationary episode.
So it seems we need to rethink our modelling of inflation expectations. 5/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

(c) Inflation expectations (one-year ahead), as measured from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, are persistent and account for most of the recent inflation episode.
We confirm these results using some less structural VAR analysis. 4/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

(b) supply shocks (the residuals from the PC) are almost iid: they cannot account for the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations. (hence the team transitory view) 3/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

Take a New-Keynesian Phillips curve as a measurement tool: we observe that:
(a) the Phillips curve is (very) flat and hasn’t steepened: output gaps cannot account for the recent bout of inflation. 2/9

Franck Portier @fpj-portier.bsky.social · Apr 17

A thread on our recent cepr/nber paper « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » with Paul Beaudry and Sev Hou. We aim at explaining US inflation dynamics in general and more specifically after 2020. #Econtwitter 1/9

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