#uöäü1OHU
A nice graph showing our main problem: the upper oceans warming faster than the lower oceans

The moment upper ocean stratification reaches thresholds that upper ocean warming shifts even more to the upper oceans we heated the oceans too fast - 0-~300/400m depth range crucial

#climate #uöäü1OHU
November 24, 2024 at 10:37 AM
If they are correct this is the most important study that was published in 2024:

Vertical mixing is already suppressed by stratification

This could then shift ocean heat uptake to shallower depths causing SSTs to accelerate...

#climate #oceans #CMIP6 #CMIP7 #IPCC #uöäü1OHU
Changes in Oceanic Radiocarbon and CFCs Since the 1990s
Recent trends in upper ocean Δ14C, pCFC-11, and pCFC-12 are negative, reflecting their decreasing atmospheric trends Increases in ∆14C are only observed in a few places over 2000–2010s, showing o...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
January 26, 2025 at 1:20 AM
The first warning is now out that ocean heat uptake could decline:

"The services of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica — oceanic carbon sink and planetary air-conditioner — have been taken for granted. Global warming-induced shifts observed in the region are immense."

#climate #uöäü1OHU
Our Science, Your Future: Next Generation of Antarctic Scientists Call for Collaborative Action - AAPP
A statement from early-career researchers at the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference
aappartnership.org.au
November 27, 2024 at 6:36 PM
Another example of a mixing process we overlooked and that could be weakened by increasing stratification: vertical intrusions near eddies and currents...

(another mixing cluster is from marine biologists)

scitechdaily.com/secret-super...

#climate #uöäü1OHU
Secret Superhighways: How Microscopic Life Transforms the Deep Ocean
Researchers have discovered that tiny ocean organisms are transported to deeper waters by currents called intrusions, playing a significant role in the ocean’s ecosystem. These findings challenge trad...
scitechdaily.com
November 2, 2024 at 6:03 PM
Models and ocean heat uptake:

"This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing."

We are decades away to develop models able to do the job - computational power!

#climate #uöäü1OHU
Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble
We present a new large ensemble with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1 (the E3SMv1-LE) initialized using ocean basin heat contrasts Ensemble spread in the 20-member E3SMv1-LE is comparabl...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 11, 2024 at 2:34 PM
Stratification reinforces the upward heat transport thereby reinforcing upper ocean stratification in a setting in the South China Sea

Surprises still coming in...

#climate #OHU #uöäü1OHU #Earth
December 4, 2024 at 8:43 PM
Warming and freshening subsurface water masses could become a problem in the future as their density decreases.

Here one example of the Southern Ocean - also Northern Hemisphere we have a similar problem which can be summarized under "warming in the pipeline" building up!

#climate #uöäü1OHU
November 11, 2024 at 8:13 AM
In models stratification controls S. Ocean heat uptake:

"The present-day SO stratification is found to be a possible constraint to the future heat uptake as represented using air-sea heat flux over 30°S–55°S"

They took up some 60-90% of the extra energy since 2006.

#climate #Earth #uöäü1OHU
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S - Nature Communications
The heat and carbon uptakes in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S are critical for mitigating climate change. Here the authors find that projection uncertainties of both uptakes are reduced dras...
doi.org
April 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Some numbers on what has happened in 2023/24 in terms of ocean heat uptake and lots of interesting and important graphs...

#climate #ocean #Earth #uöäü1OHU
2023 and 2024 a striking example of a declining heat uptake efficiency in the oceans leading to oceans accumulating heat at shallower depths (In 2025 the signal will weaken as El Nino ended, but… | J...
2023 and 2024 a striking example of a declining heat uptake efficiency in the oceans leading to oceans accumulating heat at shallower depths (In 2025 the signal will weaken as El Nino ended, but stil...
www.linkedin.com
October 13, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Just for the record: the next temperature jump is already in preparation - nothing slows down

Ocean heat content (OHC) trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ZJ/yr, and since 1986, OHC trend is 9.2ZJ/yr

In 2021 to 2024 we had: 15ZJ, 19ZJ, 16ZJ, and 16ZJ respectively (IAP)

#climate #uöäü1OHU #Earth #ENSO #MHW
February 12, 2025 at 5:17 PM
A nice new study on the asymmetry of ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean:

"Zonally Asymmetric Increase in Southern Ocean Heat Content "; journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

#climate #uöäü1OHU
December 2, 2024 at 8:46 PM
One of the more fascinating Earth system changes:

Stratification is discussed to cause the speed up of surface currents (1), while it suppresses water moments below 200m (2).

#climate #uöäü1OHU #uöäü1currents
November 24, 2024 at 8:38 PM
First result that ocean heat uptake (OHU) could decrease due to wind and stratification changes (ventilation is indicative for OHU changes)

"The model used here, along with many state-of-the-art forced ocean models, underestimates recent ocean deoxygenation" - oops!

#climate #uöäü1OHU #uöäü1ocean
Competing effects of wind and buoyancy forcing on ocean oxygen trends in recent decades - Nature Communications
Ocean deoxygenation since the late 1960s has been partially mitigated by wind-driven oxygenation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. The predicted slowdown in wind intensification may therefore accel...
www.nature.com
November 3, 2024 at 1:49 AM
A mechanism of how mixed layer eddies form near ocean fronts caused by strong currents

dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007...

#climate #uöäü1OHU
October 30, 2024 at 8:09 PM
Gulf of Mexico made a jump in SST and heat content of the upper ocean (>26°C)

Its another striking example of the non-linearity now increasing in the system fast causing downstream other non-linear changes...

#climate #Earth #uöäü1OHU #uöäü1nonlinear
December 1, 2024 at 2:39 PM
The first warning is now out that ocean heat uptake could decline:

"The services of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica — oceanic carbon sink and planetary air-conditioner — have been taken for granted. Global warming-induced shifts observed in the region are immense."

#climate #uöäü1OHU
Our Science, Your Future: Next Generation of Antarctic Scientists Call for Collaborative Action - AAPP
A statement from early-career researchers at the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference
aappartnership.org.au
November 27, 2024 at 6:38 PM
On one of the main discrepancies of climate change:

cumulative emissions increased since the 90s by ~50%, while ocean heat uptake rates increased two- to threefold

A recent study asks now important questions...

#climate #uöäü1feedbacks #uöäü1EEI #uöäü1OHU
November 13, 2024 at 10:04 PM
First warning is now out that ocean heat uptake could weaken.

Here what they say: "The services of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica — oceanic carbon sink and planetary air-conditioner — have been taken for granted."

They have all the reasons in the world...

#climate #uöäü1OHU #uöäü1WTF
Our Science, Your Future: Next Generation of Antarctic Scientists Call for Collaborative Action - AAPP
A statement from early-career researchers at the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference
aappartnership.org.au
November 24, 2024 at 12:36 AM
Small changes in mixing parameters can have large effect - attached study

Important: recent SST jump and declining carbon sink of the oceans both point toward reduced vertical mixing in the oceans. Do not know if this is happening but looks like it could...

#climate #uöäü1OHU
The Sensitivity of Southern Ocean Air‐Sea Carbon Fluxes to Background Turbulent Diapycnal Mixing Variability
Total air-sea carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean are altered by up to 66% annually by background mixing variations Resolving or skillfully parameterizing the small-scale turbulent mixing in the ...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 31, 2024 at 8:22 PM

Ocean heat uptake Southern Ocean - winds very important:

We found a notable difference in OHC trends between the Atlantic–Indian sector and the Pacific sector, which could be attributed to the inverse meridional heat15 advection caused by wind anomalies

#climate #uöäü1OHU #Antarctic
December 1, 2024 at 10:45 PM
Weakening trend in ocean heat uptake could now contribute to surface warming and latent heat release into the atmosphere across the western to central North Pacific the last years

Stupid its the mode waters!

It would be the worst case!

#climate #uöäü1OHU #uöäü1feedbacks #uöäü1MHW #MHW #Earth
Record-Breaking Marine Heatwave over the Central North Pacific in 2021 Summer: Its Formation Associated with Loss of Central Mode Water
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extremely high sea surface temperature (SST) events. In the 2021 summer, an intense MHW occurred over the central North Pacific; the SST in September 202...
doi.org
December 10, 2024 at 11:35 PM
First study out that raises the possibility that further warming could reduce the ability of the Southern Ocean to take up heat - oops!

Come one elites, emit more GHGs, while sinks are declining, I will fetch meanwhile the popcorn!

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

#climate #uöäü1feedback #uöäü1OHU
Southern Ocean heat buffer constrained by present-day ENSO teleconnection - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Southern Ocean heat buffer constrained by present-day ENSO teleconnection
www.nature.com
October 17, 2024 at 12:45 PM
One current main questions of climate science is what processes increase latent heat release by the oceans

Could be one reason behind the ongoing exceptional temperatures

Intensifying small scale ocean fronts could be one cause. In 2023 ocean heterogeneity index went rooftop

#climate #uöäü1OHU
Oceanic eddy with submesoscale edge drives intense air-sea exchanges and beyond - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - Oceanic eddy with submesoscale edge drives intense air-sea exchanges and beyond
www.nature.com
November 7, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Next critical model error:

High resolution of eddies increases surface heating of the oceans across the first 250m

Secondary errors could be huge here:

It starts with upper ocean stratification, ocean heat uptake, and global circulation patterns

#climate #uöäü2models #CMIP #IPCC #uöäü1OHU
Enhanced Upper Ocean Warming Projected by the Eddy‐Resolving Community Earth System Model
Simulated upper-ocean ocean heat content anomalies are more realistic in high-resolution simulations than in low-resolution counterparts With similar ocean surface heating, high-resolution simula...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
January 18, 2025 at 5:58 PM
If ocean heat uptake shifts to shallower depths you really should reduce GHG emissions ASAP - but we speed up...

"The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic"; www.nature.com/articles/s43...

#climate #uöäü1OHU
The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic - Communications Earth & Environment
The deep layers of the North Atlantic Ocean are expected to warm in the coming decades as excess heat taken up at the ocean surface is redistributed, suggests a historical reconstruction of full-depth...
www.nature.com
November 2, 2024 at 5:58 PM