All 5 authors warn us about success. #destinationdisease #complacency #overconfidencebias #sophomorejinx #nextplay

The strongest move?

Stay skeptical — especially of yourself.

Certainty is easy. Accuracy is earned.

#OverconfidenceBias #FightDisinformation #StayHumble

Here are the 10 manipulation tactics we covered from the paper — each with examples, real-world uses, and how to resist:
#AnchoringBias
#Framing
#CognitiveEase
#InformationOverload
#AvailabilityBias
#ConfirmationBias
#Reactance
#SocialProof
#OverconfidenceBias
#ReciprocityBias

Overconfidence bias is related to the "Dunning-Kruger effect"; individuals with low expertise in a domain tend to overrate their competence.

Both biases can distort reasoning and decision-making by reinforcing reliance on flawed judgments.

#OverconfidenceBias #DunningKrugerEffect

@mcuban.bsky.social I asked ChatGPT "what is the dollar amount of personal wealth above which people become incapable of saying to themselves "I was wrong" or "I don't know what I'm talking about""

#hubrissyndrome #overconfidencebias

Key psychological drivers they identified:
#CognitiveLaziness
#EmotionBias
#MotivatedReasoning
#OverconfidenceBias

→ The same traps work across cultures and platforms

We’ll cover:

#CognitiveLaziness
#MotivatedReasoning
#EmotionBias
#IllusoryTruthEffect
#FamiliarityTrap
#SocialInfluence
#PolarizationTrap
#OverconfidenceBias
#SharingBias
#CognitiveImmunity