#Zeitenwende-consensus
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ajsdecepida.bsky.social
Précis of Adam Taylor’s report Germany’s Shift from U.S. Dependence Friedrich Merz, poised to become Germany’s next chancellor, wasted no time outlining a stark shift in foreign policy. He declared that Europe must gradually reduce its reliance on the United States, criticizing Trump’s indifference and condemning JD Vance and #MaMuskBoy’s support for Germany’s far right as akin to Kremlin-backed election meddling. His remarks signal a break from traditional transatlantic ties. A Conservative Voice Calling for Strategic Autonomy Merz’s position is striking given his background. A pro-business conservative from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), he previously worked to strengthen U.S.-German relations. Just a few years ago, such a stance would have seemed radical, but now it reflects a growing consensus in Europe that Washington’s reliability as a security partner is in doubt. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscored the risks of dependence on U.S. leadership, especially under Trump. Europe’s Defense Gap Without the U.S. Despite spending over $290 billion on defense, Europe’s fragmented military structure and dependence on the U.S. create inefficiencies. A recent estimate suggests Europe would need at least $260 billion more and hundreds of thousands of additional troops to deter Russia without U.S. support. Germany, as the EU’s largest economy, would bear much of this burden, but its Bundeswehr remains underfunded and constrained by postwar policies and a historical aversion to unilateral military action. Germany’s Defense Dilemma Germany claimed to have met NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending target last year, but many — beyond Trump — argue that this is insufficient. Some analysts propose raising defense spending to 5% of GDP to reassure European allies and deter U.S. disengagement. However, Germany also relies heavily on U.S. trade, technology, and defense contracts, making full independence a complex goal. The country’s struggling economy further complicates efforts to ramp up military spending. U.S. Interference and the New German Stance The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained a powerful endorsement from #MaMuskBoy, who used his platform to support the party, while JD Vance met with AfD leaders. Merz sharply rebuked such interference, calling it ❝unacceptable.❞ He also accused the U.S. of attempting to negotiate over Ukraine’s future without consulting Europe, highlighting growing frustration with Washington’s unilateralism. The End of the Merkel Era in Foreign Policy Merz’s stance represents a departure from Angela Merkel’s pragmatic diplomacy, which maintained ties with Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. His immediate predecessor, Olaf Scholz, had previously declared a Zeitenwende — ❝turning point❞ — in German foreign policy, but Merz appears poised to push that shift further. A likely CDU-SPD coalition may agree on bolstering defense and asserting European autonomy, but political fragmentation and AfD’s opposition will complicate efforts. Germany’s Role in Europe’s Future Merz has suggested that foreign policy and security will be central in coalition talks. He may be willing to relax Germany’s rigid ❝debt brake❞ to fund increased defense spending. Analysts argue that his strong Atlanticist background gives him credibility to advocate for European independence while navigating economic constraints. However, if Germany fails to redefine its NATO and EU commitments, it risks reinforcing Trump’s perception of Europe as weak — fueling further transatlantic rifts.
February 24, 2025 at 10:37 PM
atjmattelaer.bsky.social
Dit commentaarstuk v/d 🇩🇪 MOD Pistorius vertolkt de groeiende #Zeitenwende-consensus in Berlijn:

- nood aan 📈 zelfredzaamheid
- aanzienlijk meer als 2% voor defensie nodig
- fiscale beperkingen mogen geen rem zijn (want zonder veiligheid blijft niets over)

Quid #begov?

www.welt.de/debatte/komm...
Boris Pistorius: „Wir brauchen eine kriegstüchtige Bundeswehr“ - WELT
Aktuell erleben wir eine Rekordzahl an Krisen und Konflikten. Deutschland wird in Zukunft deutlich mehr als zwei Prozent für Verteidigung ausgeben müssen. Dazu ist eine Anpassung der Schuldenbremse nö...
www.welt.de
December 15, 2024 at 10:45 AM
amgerinst.bsky.social
The Zeitenwende has ushered in much-awaited investment in Germany's defense. While there is broad consensus between the CDU and SPD on foreign policy, @andrearotter.bsky.social identifies areas the future coalition should address to keep up the momentum: americangerman.institute/2025/04/germ...
Germany’s Zeitenwende 2.0: This Time for Real?
Opportunities and Challenges for Sustainable Change in Germany’s Foreign and Security Policy Amid Coalition Negotiations For years, European and transatlantic allies have urged Germany to take on grea...
americangerman.institute
April 7, 2025 at 4:16 PM
tobiasbunde.bsky.social
My article on #Zeitenwende as a foreign policy identity crisis has been published by the British Journal of Politics and International Relations: doi.org/10.1177/1369... (open access). It reflects my assessment of continuity and change of 🇩🇪 German foreign policy (as of early/mid-2024).
Screenshot of the abstract and other article details: ARTICLE Zeitenwende as a foreign policy identity crisis: Germany and the travails of adaptation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Tobias Bunde © The Author(s) 2025 https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481241311568open_in_new Abstract While Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine represented a shock to countries across Europe, it was perceived as a particularly fundamental challenge in Germany – a ‘Zeitenwende’ as Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it. This article argues that the Russian invasion undermined widely shared foreign policy ideas, triggering a foreign policy identity crisis. This crisis allowed for significant ideational change and decisions previously considered unattainable. However, other elements of Germany’s foreign policy identity have proven to be remarkably resilient, shaping the response across various policy areas. The absence of a new consensus that could be linked to other elements of the German collective identity has slowed adaptation in some areas and allowed opponents to push back. While German foreign policy has changed significantly since the beginning of the invasion, additional adaptation will not be as swift and extensive as many of Berlin’s partners would like and as the changing security environment arguably demands.
January 22, 2025 at 8:37 AM