Party realignment in our times
November 10, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Party realignment in our times
time for a party realignment (in minecraft)
November 10, 2025 at 1:52 PM
time for a party realignment (in minecraft)
A "modest margin" when Mamdani beat his next closest challenger by 8 points in a three-person race. Trump won by just 1.5% and it was played off as a seismic realignment of American politics and culture.
Damn, I hate it when things that happen mean nothing :-(
November 9, 2025 at 3:39 PM
A "modest margin" when Mamdani beat his next closest challenger by 8 points in a three-person race. Trump won by just 1.5% and it was played off as a seismic realignment of American politics and culture.
New post: “Review: Realignment” https://giants-club.net/articles/review-realignment/
A hero-to-villain journey of both discovery and self-discovery that’s half pun-filled action adventure tale—and half romantic comedy.
A hero-to-villain journey of both discovery and self-discovery that’s half pun-filled action adventure tale—and half romantic comedy.
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
New post: “Review: Realignment” https://giants-club.net/articles/review-realignment/
A hero-to-villain journey of both discovery and self-discovery that’s half pun-filled action adventure tale—and half romantic comedy.
A hero-to-villain journey of both discovery and self-discovery that’s half pun-filled action adventure tale—and half romantic comedy.
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:39 PM
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
The 2016 realignment: insanely real and durable
The 2024 realignment: wait instead of lowering prices you're building yourself a new ballroom?
The 2024 realignment: wait instead of lowering prices you're building yourself a new ballroom?
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The 2016 realignment: insanely real and durable
The 2024 realignment: wait instead of lowering prices you're building yourself a new ballroom?
The 2024 realignment: wait instead of lowering prices you're building yourself a new ballroom?
for those interested in a deep dive of the post civil rights act political realignment in the US: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Souther...
Southern strategy - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 PM
for those interested in a deep dive of the post civil rights act political realignment in the US: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Souther...
The moms of Montgomery County don't like Bethany Mandel because she's a jerk to trans kids, and that tells a lot about America's political realignment.
The “Likable”/“Unlikable” Political Realignment
American conservatism is a home for unlikeable people who’ve turned their unlinkability into a political project.
www.aaronrosspowell.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The moms of Montgomery County don't like Bethany Mandel because she's a jerk to trans kids, and that tells a lot about America's political realignment.
DSA is unfortunately not currently a party, and seems committed to running democrats as part of said party realignment strategy
November 10, 2025 at 6:14 AM
DSA is unfortunately not currently a party, and seems committed to running democrats as part of said party realignment strategy
Realignment is fucking wild man.
Greene: "I will praise Nancy Pelosi. She had an incredible career for her party. I served under her speakership in my first term in Congress and I'm very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party."
November 6, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Realignment is fucking wild man.
"The Great Hispanic Realignment Theory is no longer operable and the polling on Hispanic disapproval of Trump is as real as it gets. And it will get worse, because Trump is now pot-committed to his deportation reign of terror."
Anatomy of a Wave
Hispanic voters abandoned Republicans and the “Trump 2028” wars are next.
www.thebulwark.com
November 8, 2025 at 11:00 PM
"The Great Hispanic Realignment Theory is no longer operable and the polling on Hispanic disapproval of Trump is as real as it gets. And it will get worse, because Trump is now pot-committed to his deportation reign of terror."
there wasn't a demographic realignment. there was a massive anti incumbent sentiment driven by inflation which pushed every demographic to vote against Ds.
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 8, 2025 at 6:43 PM
there wasn't a demographic realignment. there was a massive anti incumbent sentiment driven by inflation which pushed every demographic to vote against Ds.
Transit employees protect and serve by orders of magnitude more than the police ever have, and our society is overdue for a realignment in understanding of who the protectors & servants are and who deserves broadly-applied praise for fulfilling those roles.
When the temperatures drop and snow begins to fall, CTA’s employees are among the true superheroes of the Chicago region. Many of the hardworking men and women of our great agency have worked overnight and throughout the day to ensure that our riders have had smooth rides.
November 10, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Transit employees protect and serve by orders of magnitude more than the police ever have, and our society is overdue for a realignment in understanding of who the protectors & servants are and who deserves broadly-applied praise for fulfilling those roles.
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Maybe I'm reading too much into this particular set of political tea leaves, but this feels to me like the kind of rupture that precipitates a realignment. At the congressional level, both parties seem divided and rudderless to an extent not previously seen in my lifetime.
Either way, so many Dems... the bulk of the Senate caucus, House leadership, governors, etc.,... all quickly throwing down the gauntlet with such open unrestrained attacks on any Dems who cave is new. It wasn't like that in March, not nearly as loud and widespread and immediate, much more base-only.
November 10, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Maybe I'm reading too much into this particular set of political tea leaves, but this feels to me like the kind of rupture that precipitates a realignment. At the congressional level, both parties seem divided and rudderless to an extent not previously seen in my lifetime.
There was never a racial realignment open.substack.com/pub/greattra...
There was never a Racial Realignment
We're witnessing a Latino "Dealignment" and that's why the experts keep missing it
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:16 PM
There was never a racial realignment open.substack.com/pub/greattra...
The Immigration rhetoric sticks in my craw, & I'm desperate for them to raise taxes. But otherwise, I'm happy with the workers rights bill, net zero policies, school meals, realignment with the EU etc. I'm not even a true Labour supporter, but I also know no one party gov can please everyone.
November 12, 2025 at 9:08 AM
The Immigration rhetoric sticks in my craw, & I'm desperate for them to raise taxes. But otherwise, I'm happy with the workers rights bill, net zero policies, school meals, realignment with the EU etc. I'm not even a true Labour supporter, but I also know no one party gov can please everyone.
A big factor in Virginia: The demise of Republican gerrymandering, which the Trump era’s realignment also eroded.
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
Virginia House seats won by Democrats this century, out of the chamber's 100 seats:
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
November 9, 2025 at 3:19 PM
A big factor in Virginia: The demise of Republican gerrymandering, which the Trump era’s realignment also eroded.
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
"It is clear now that claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated." @gelliottmorris.com
The 2024 Trump "realignment" is over already
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:16 PM
"It is clear now that claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated." @gelliottmorris.com
What if the real GOP political realignment was all the oligarchs and corporate titans who bent the knee along the way
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:54 PM
What if the real GOP political realignment was all the oligarchs and corporate titans who bent the knee along the way
As expected, yes. It wasn't some sort of thoughtful realignment. It was Americans having the attention span of a gnat combined with kneejerk misogyny
November 7, 2025 at 3:05 PM
As expected, yes. It wasn't some sort of thoughtful realignment. It was Americans having the attention span of a gnat combined with kneejerk misogyny
Incentives in lib-Dem advocacy/journo/Substack world favor treating 2024 as having great ideological significance (durable victory for/realignment toward Trumpism) that party must atone for. Those incentives, which apply across ideological spectrum, prevent reassessment to counterproductive degree.
On some level, the basic posture of some Dems (not all) is still fearful and tentative. Some seem afraid to say their big wins were driven even *partly* by Trump. Why? Say he's an unpopular and failing president who's wrecking the economy and that voters delivered him a resounding repudiation.
November 7, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Incentives in lib-Dem advocacy/journo/Substack world favor treating 2024 as having great ideological significance (durable victory for/realignment toward Trumpism) that party must atone for. Those incentives, which apply across ideological spectrum, prevent reassessment to counterproductive degree.
This is the 19th scoreless first half since the 2002 realignment.
I think I would agree that this is one of the better ones, but man. Ppoooiiiinnntss....
I think I would agree that this is one of the better ones, but man. Ppoooiiiinnntss....
November 11, 2025 at 2:38 AM
This is the 19th scoreless first half since the 2002 realignment.
I think I would agree that this is one of the better ones, but man. Ppoooiiiinnntss....
I think I would agree that this is one of the better ones, but man. Ppoooiiiinnntss....
One of Tuesday's biggest takeaways: "The Great Hispanic Realignment Theory is no longer operable and the polling on Hispanic disapproval of Trump is as real as it gets. And it will get worse." www.thebulwark.com/p/2025-elect...
Anatomy of a Wave
Hispanic voters abandoned Republicans and the “Trump 2028” wars are next.
www.thebulwark.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:00 AM
One of Tuesday's biggest takeaways: "The Great Hispanic Realignment Theory is no longer operable and the polling on Hispanic disapproval of Trump is as real as it gets. And it will get worse." www.thebulwark.com/p/2025-elect...
Tuesday's results show there was no trump realignment in 2024, which means he just won because it was a bad year for incumbents.
most incumbent parties did worse than the Ds, in fact...probably because Trump is such a weak candidate.
most incumbent parties did worse than the Ds, in fact...probably because Trump is such a weak candidate.
November 9, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Tuesday's results show there was no trump realignment in 2024, which means he just won because it was a bad year for incumbents.
most incumbent parties did worse than the Ds, in fact...probably because Trump is such a weak candidate.
most incumbent parties did worse than the Ds, in fact...probably because Trump is such a weak candidate.