Nature Communications, Published online: 04 November 2025; doi:10.1038/s41467-025-64820-1Burden of major disease is projected to increase in England and many other countries. Here the authors model the impact of reducing eight known risk factors for disease burden, such as BMI and smoking, between 2023-2043 in England and report that reductions in risk factors may not substantially reduce the major illness burden by 2043 due to population ageing.

Mandatory nutrient warning labels could prevent 100,000+ obesity-related deaths in England

Nature Communications, Published online: 04 November 2025; doi:10.1038/s41467-025-64820-1Burden of major disease is projected to increase in England and many other countries. Here the authors model the impact of reducing eight known risk factors for disease burden, such as BMI and smoking, between 2023-2043 in England and report that reductions in risk factors may not substantially reduce the major illness burden by 2043 due to population ageing.

Developing computer models to show how policies might affect health, so that policymakers can better understand their impacts on people in their area.

to paper

Although prior studies of tuberculosis-preventive treatment (TPT) for pregnant people with human immunodeficiency virus (PPWH) report conflicting adverse pregnancy outcome (APO) risks, international guidelines recommend TPT for PPWH.MethodsWe used a microsimulation model to evaluate 5 TPT strategies among PPWH receiving antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: No TPT; 6 months of isoniazid (6H) or 3 months of isoniazid-rifapentine (3HP) during pregnancy (Immediate 6H or Immediate 3HP) or post partum (Deferred 6H or Deferred 3HP). The primary outcomes were maternal, fetal/infant, and combined deaths from causes potentially influenced by TPT (maternal tuberculosis, maternal hepatotoxicity, stillbirth, low birth weight [LBW], and infant tuberculosis). Tuberculosis during pregnancy confers 250% and 81% higher modeled risks of stillbirth and LBW, respectively. In lower-risk or higher-risk scenarios, immediate TPT confers 38% lower or 92% higher risks of stillbirth and 16% lower or 35% higher risks of LBW.ResultsImmediate TPT would minimize deaths among PPWH. When TPT confers higher stillbirth and LBW risks, immediate TPT would produce the most combined maternal and fetal/infant deaths, even with low maternal CD4 cell count and high tuberculosis incidence. If immediate TPT yields a <4% or <20% increase in stillbirth or LBW, immediate TPT would produce fewer combined deaths than deferred TPT (sensitivity analysis range, <2%–22% and <11%–120%, respectively).ConclusionsIf APO risks are below identifiable thresholds, TPT during pregnancy could decrease combined maternal and fetal/infant deaths. Given uncertainty around isoniazid's risks, and the low threshold at which APO risks could outweigh benefits from tuberculosis deaths averted, studies of newer TPT regimens among PPWH are warranted to inform guidelines.

This study aimed to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the impact of a care disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer mortality using an administrative database.

YouTube video by Population Health Improvement UK

to paper

to paper