🔶It’s the #LibDems that continue to be the buffer to Reform U.K.💪
Whilst the other main parties lose seats or stay static the LIB DEMS are GAINING SEATS 💪
Aggregate Results of the 158 Council By-Elections since LE2025:
➡️ RFM: 54 (+46)
🔶 LDM: 47 (+19)
🟦 CON: 16 (-19)
🛑 LAB: 13 (-38)
💚 GRN: 11 (+1)
Whilst the other main parties lose seats or stay static the LIB DEMS are GAINING SEATS 💪
Aggregate Results of the 158 Council By-Elections since LE2025:
➡️ RFM: 54 (+46)
🔶 LDM: 47 (+19)
🟦 CON: 16 (-19)
🛑 LAB: 13 (-38)
💚 GRN: 11 (+1)
Aggregate Result of the 155 Council By-Elections (for 158 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:
RFM: 54 (+46)
LDM: 47 (+19)
CON: 16 (-19)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 11 (+1)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 1 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
RFM: 54 (+46)
LDM: 47 (+19)
CON: 16 (-19)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 11 (+1)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 1 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 PM
🔶It’s the #LibDems that continue to be the buffer to Reform U.K.💪
Whilst the other main parties lose seats or stay static the LIB DEMS are GAINING SEATS 💪
Aggregate Results of the 158 Council By-Elections since LE2025:
➡️ RFM: 54 (+46)
🔶 LDM: 47 (+19)
🟦 CON: 16 (-19)
🛑 LAB: 13 (-38)
💚 GRN: 11 (+1)
Whilst the other main parties lose seats or stay static the LIB DEMS are GAINING SEATS 💪
Aggregate Results of the 158 Council By-Elections since LE2025:
➡️ RFM: 54 (+46)
🔶 LDM: 47 (+19)
🟦 CON: 16 (-19)
🛑 LAB: 13 (-38)
💚 GRN: 11 (+1)
. @libdems.org.uk have strengthened their grip on #Somerset Council following by-election wins in #Dunster and #Glastonbury: www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/2556918... #LDReporter #Somerset #LE2025
www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk
October 24, 2025 at 12:14 PM
. @libdems.org.uk have strengthened their grip on #Somerset Council following by-election wins in #Dunster and #Glastonbury: www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/2556918... #LDReporter #Somerset #LE2025
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking into account all defections and by-elections since LE2025 and now updated with results from Lib Dem "super-Thursday" last week 😂.
Model assumptions in comment below.
Model assumptions in comment below.
October 18, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking into account all defections and by-elections since LE2025 and now updated with results from Lib Dem "super-Thursday" last week 😂.
Model assumptions in comment below.
Model assumptions in comment below.
Retention rates by party in defending their seats in the 135 local by-elections since #LE2025:
PC 100% (1/1)
LD 92% (24/26)
Grn 67% (6/9)
Ref 57% (4/7)
SNP 33% (1/3)
Ind 33% (3/9)
Lab 27% (12/44)
Con 24% (7/29)
Loc 0% (0/7)
Brackets = number of seats they held/defending.
PC 100% (1/1)
LD 92% (24/26)
Grn 67% (6/9)
Ref 57% (4/7)
SNP 33% (1/3)
Ind 33% (3/9)
Lab 27% (12/44)
Con 24% (7/29)
Loc 0% (0/7)
Brackets = number of seats they held/defending.
October 17, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Retention rates by party in defending their seats in the 135 local by-elections since #LE2025:
PC 100% (1/1)
LD 92% (24/26)
Grn 67% (6/9)
Ref 57% (4/7)
SNP 33% (1/3)
Ind 33% (3/9)
Lab 27% (12/44)
Con 24% (7/29)
Loc 0% (0/7)
Brackets = number of seats they held/defending.
PC 100% (1/1)
LD 92% (24/26)
Grn 67% (6/9)
Ref 57% (4/7)
SNP 33% (1/3)
Ind 33% (3/9)
Lab 27% (12/44)
Con 24% (7/29)
Loc 0% (0/7)
Brackets = number of seats they held/defending.
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.
October 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
October 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Five people have thrown their hat into the ring to replace the late Councillor Nick Cottle in the upcoming #Glastonbury by-election: www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/2550630... #LDReporter #Somerset #LE2025
Tributes paid to Glastonbury councillor as by-election candidates confirmed
Councillor Nick Cottle passed away on August 11 at the age of 69
www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk
September 30, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Five people have thrown their hat into the ring to replace the late Councillor Nick Cottle in the upcoming #Glastonbury by-election: www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/2550630... #LDReporter #Somerset #LE2025
Alongside Reform and the Lib Dems, the Green Party would also be big winners, picking up a further ~300 net gains vs LE2025 to take them over 1,000 councillors for the first time.
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Alongside Reform and the Lib Dems, the Green Party would also be big winners, picking up a further ~300 net gains vs LE2025 to take them over 1,000 councillors for the first time.
If Labour can’t improve on their 28% retention rate of recent by-elections (as this model assumes), or win them back from other parties (which they are yet to do once since LE2025) then they will be on track to lose nearly 1,700 seats vs their position last May.
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
If Labour can’t improve on their 28% retention rate of recent by-elections (as this model assumes), or win them back from other parties (which they are yet to do once since LE2025) then they will be on track to lose nearly 1,700 seats vs their position last May.
Nevertheless, this model does highlight some important dynamics: Labour will be defending nearly 2,000 seats – more than ⅓ of their total. The Tories are defending just over 1,000 – around ¼ of theirs. This is in stark contrast to LE2025, where the Tories were defending many more seats than Labour.
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Nevertheless, this model does highlight some important dynamics: Labour will be defending nearly 2,000 seats – more than ⅓ of their total. The Tories are defending just over 1,000 – around ¼ of theirs. This is in stark contrast to LE2025, where the Tories were defending many more seats than Labour.
Two by-elections to #Somerset Council will take place before #Halloween2025 following the death of one councillor and the retirement of another: www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/2549166... #LDReporter #LE2025 #Dunster #Minehead #Williton #Watchet #Glastonbury
Two Somerset Council by-elections to take place before Halloween
Two Somerset Council by-elections will be held before Halloween following the death of one councillor and the retirement of another.
www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk
September 24, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Two by-elections to #Somerset Council will take place before #Halloween2025 following the death of one councillor and the retirement of another: www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/2549166... #LDReporter #LE2025 #Dunster #Minehead #Williton #Watchet #Glastonbury
Conversely, I've heard quite a few reports from local campaign teams in places Reform did well in LE2025, about how GE-only voters turning out for the locals had a big impact. Especially in places where turnout is already very low, coupled with previously-regular LE voters abstaining.
September 14, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Conversely, I've heard quite a few reports from local campaign teams in places Reform did well in LE2025, about how GE-only voters turning out for the locals had a big impact. Especially in places where turnout is already very low, coupled with previously-regular LE voters abstaining.
🚨 New! | Interactive Council By-Election Results Explorer.
👀 | View Detailed Results of All Council By-Elections since LE2025
📊 | Filter and Sort by Winning Party, Vote Share, Region, Date
📅 | See details for upcoming By-Elections
electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
👀 | View Detailed Results of All Council By-Elections since LE2025
📊 | Filter and Sort by Winning Party, Vote Share, Region, Date
📅 | See details for upcoming By-Elections
electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
August 13, 2025 at 9:31 AM
🚨 New! | Interactive Council By-Election Results Explorer.
👀 | View Detailed Results of All Council By-Elections since LE2025
📊 | Filter and Sort by Winning Party, Vote Share, Region, Date
📅 | See details for upcoming By-Elections
electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
👀 | View Detailed Results of All Council By-Elections since LE2025
📊 | Filter and Sort by Winning Party, Vote Share, Region, Date
📅 | See details for upcoming By-Elections
electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
First LD loss of any seat since LE2025
Result in from Harborough District Council's Market Harborough Logan ward - the Conservatives have gained the seat from the Liberal Democrats. Paul Bremner is the new councillor
July 17, 2025 at 11:19 PM
First LD loss of any seat since LE2025
KWP #TrendWatch - Latest Stinger Report #1239
In the latest #StingerReport, the concluding coverage from Licensing Expo (#LE2025), looking how much #IP and Branding plays a part for investment, along with coverage of how #Retailtainment is growing.
bnbc8.r.ag.d.sendibm3.com/mk/mr/sh/6rq...
In the latest #StingerReport, the concluding coverage from Licensing Expo (#LE2025), looking how much #IP and Branding plays a part for investment, along with coverage of how #Retailtainment is growing.
bnbc8.r.ag.d.sendibm3.com/mk/mr/sh/6rq...
The Stinger Report #1239
bnbc8.r.ag.d.sendibm3.com
July 10, 2025 at 12:46 PM
KWP #TrendWatch - Latest Stinger Report #1239
In the latest #StingerReport, the concluding coverage from Licensing Expo (#LE2025), looking how much #IP and Branding plays a part for investment, along with coverage of how #Retailtainment is growing.
bnbc8.r.ag.d.sendibm3.com/mk/mr/sh/6rq...
In the latest #StingerReport, the concluding coverage from Licensing Expo (#LE2025), looking how much #IP and Branding plays a part for investment, along with coverage of how #Retailtainment is growing.
bnbc8.r.ag.d.sendibm3.com/mk/mr/sh/6rq...
Benfieldside by-election result: Earley, Kevin (Lab) 800, Harrison, Stephen (Ref) 747, Lowes, David (Con) 76, Robinson, Stephen (Ind) 459, Rooney, Terry (Lib Dem) 824, Simpson, Richard Edwin (Green) 40.
Terry Rooney has been elected councillor for Benfieldside #CountyDurham #LE2025
Terry Rooney has been elected councillor for Benfieldside #CountyDurham #LE2025
July 4, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Benfieldside by-election result: Earley, Kevin (Lab) 800, Harrison, Stephen (Ref) 747, Lowes, David (Con) 76, Robinson, Stephen (Ind) 459, Rooney, Terry (Lib Dem) 824, Simpson, Richard Edwin (Green) 40.
Terry Rooney has been elected councillor for Benfieldside #CountyDurham #LE2025
Terry Rooney has been elected councillor for Benfieldside #CountyDurham #LE2025
First successful Conservative defence since #LE2025:
✅ Conservative HOLD
Great Wyrley Landywood (South Staffordshire) council by-election result:
CON: 48.7% (+2.8)
REF: 39.7% (+39.7)
LAB: 7.5% (-36.3)
GRN: 4.1% (-6.3)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~20% (-2)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Great Wyrley Landywood (South Staffordshire) council by-election result:
CON: 48.7% (+2.8)
REF: 39.7% (+39.7)
LAB: 7.5% (-36.3)
GRN: 4.1% (-6.3)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~20% (-2)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack
"All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
andrewteale.me.uk
June 26, 2025 at 10:55 PM
First successful Conservative defence since #LE2025:
Keeps up the trend of the Conservatives having lost every local by-election they have defended since LE2025.
Con 0 (-5)
LD 3 (+3)
Ref 2 (+2)
Massacred to the right and left… will this prove a death-spiral?
Con 0 (-5)
LD 3 (+3)
Ref 2 (+2)
Massacred to the right and left… will this prove a death-spiral?
Ashford Town (Spelthorne) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 27.4% (New)
➡️ RFM: 23.4% (+21.0)
🌳 CON: 19.0% (-18.4)
🙋 Ind: 18.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 11.9% (-2.2)
No GRN (-16.8), Ind (-28.0), TUSC (-1.3).
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2023.
🔶 LDM: 27.4% (New)
➡️ RFM: 23.4% (+21.0)
🌳 CON: 19.0% (-18.4)
🙋 Ind: 18.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 11.9% (-2.2)
No GRN (-16.8), Ind (-28.0), TUSC (-1.3).
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2023.
June 20, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Keeps up the trend of the Conservatives having lost every local by-election they have defended since LE2025.
Con 0 (-5)
LD 3 (+3)
Ref 2 (+2)
Massacred to the right and left… will this prove a death-spiral?
Con 0 (-5)
LD 3 (+3)
Ref 2 (+2)
Massacred to the right and left… will this prove a death-spiral?
Aggregate Result of the 9 Council By-Elections Since #LE2025:
LDM: 4 (=)
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
LDM: 4 (=)
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
May 22, 2025 at 11:55 PM
Aggregate Result of the 9 Council By-Elections Since #LE2025:
LDM: 4 (=)
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
LDM: 4 (=)
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
Aggregate Result of the 6 Council By-Elections Since #LE2025:
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
LDM: 1 (=)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
LDM: 1 (=)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
May 16, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Aggregate Result of the 6 Council By-Elections Since #LE2025:
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
LDM: 1 (=)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
RFM: 3 (+3)
LAB: 1 (-2)
LDM: 1 (=)
SNP: 1 (=)
CON: 0 (-1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...
To go back to the main point re. LE2025, IMO Labour see ReformUK has been able to slice of some "revolutionary activist" types as well as mobilise trad non-voters, while trad voters stay at home × they're concerned that ReformUK are beginning to "own" this political ground as they own immigration
May 15, 2025 at 8:20 AM
To go back to the main point re. LE2025, IMO Labour see ReformUK has been able to slice of some "revolutionary activist" types as well as mobilise trad non-voters, while trad voters stay at home × they're concerned that ReformUK are beginning to "own" this political ground as they own immigration
I was talking #GetGreensElected after #LE2025 on Sunday with Tim Iredale on BBC Yorkshire.
Eight successive years of growth in councillors into the age of five-party politics. (On the show with Labour and Reform reps)
Eight successive years of growth in councillors into the age of five-party politics. (On the show with Labour and Reform reps)
May 13, 2025 at 12:24 PM
I was talking #GetGreensElected after #LE2025 on Sunday with Tim Iredale on BBC Yorkshire.
Eight successive years of growth in councillors into the age of five-party politics. (On the show with Labour and Reform reps)
Eight successive years of growth in councillors into the age of five-party politics. (On the show with Labour and Reform reps)
Had a lovely time visiting Stone last year, and been back to Haddenham several times, so particularly delighted to see this #LE2025 result, with extra @greenparty.org.uk councillor elected!
Great #GetGreensElected work
www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/people/...
Great #GetGreensElected work
www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/people/...
Greens are alternative to Reform UK says Bucks councillor
The Green Party is an alternative to Reform UK, a Bucks councillor who kept his seat in the local elections has said.
www.bucksherald.co.uk
May 12, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Had a lovely time visiting Stone last year, and been back to Haddenham several times, so particularly delighted to see this #LE2025 result, with extra @greenparty.org.uk councillor elected!
Great #GetGreensElected work
www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/people/...
Great #GetGreensElected work
www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/people/...
One week on from #LE2025
Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
May 10, 2025 at 8:11 AM
One week on from #LE2025
Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
One week on from #LE2025
The Britain Predicts model proved better than the rest
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
The Britain Predicts model proved better than the rest
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
May 10, 2025 at 7:24 AM
One week on from #LE2025
The Britain Predicts model proved better than the rest
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
The Britain Predicts model proved better than the rest
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...