ERCOT Grid Faces Growing Supply-Demand Gap: Ascend Analytics Warns of Volatility
ERCOT Grid Faces Growing Supply-Demand Gap: Ascend Analytics Warns of Volatility
A new analysis from Ascend Analytics highlights a widening disparity between electricity demand and supply within the Texas power grid (ERCOT), potentially leading to increased market volatility and periods of scarcity. The findings, released May 28, 2025, suggest a significant divergence in forecasts for peak electricity demand. Ascend anticipates a peak load of 119 GW by 2030, a considerably lower projection compared to ERCOT’s current forecast of 208 GW and a revised estimate of 138 GW.
Initial relief from rising solar and energy storage capacity is expected in 2025-2026, temporarily mitigating the risk of power shortages. However, Ascend predicts a substantial decrease in reserve margins starting in 2027, signaling the onset of potential scarcity conditions. The ERCOT market is likely to experience cyclical patterns, fluctuating between years of high demand and years of lower demand, influenced by unpredictable weather patterns and uncertainty surrounding new power generation installations.
A key factor impacting long-term energy development is the anticipated phaseout of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean energy tax credits in the 2030s. This phaseout is expected to raise the effective cost of renewable energy projects and consequently slow their deployment. Furthermore, Ascend’s analysis suggests a shift in battery technology, with 4-hour duration batteries becoming increasingly economically favorable over 2-hour batteries within the next 1-2 years, driven by the rising value of longer-duration energy storage solutions during periods of scarcity.
"ERCOT continues to undergo rapid change, and supply additions will have a difficult time keeping up with demand growth...expect a volatile market with boom years and bust years, and forward markets that reflect this asymmetric price risk," stated Brent Nelson, Managing Director of Markets and Strategy at Ascend Analytics.
Ascend Analytics is a leading provider of market intelligence for the energy sector, with their insights utilized in over $50 billion in project financing assessments. They assist energy stakeholders in strategic planning, risk management, and adaptation to the evolving energy landscape.
To delve deeper into these findings, Ascend Analytics is hosting a webinar on Thursday, May 29, 2025, at 11:00 AM MT. Details and registration can be found at https://www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/ercot-market-outlook-power-generation-resources-assemble/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=ercot%20webinar%202025&utm_content=ercot%202025%20webinar%20mailchimp