Arendt’s Law comes for economic data

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, May 2, 2025, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: * The number in the right-most column is the 'prior' (previous month) result. * The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. * This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points: Headline NFP number: * 25,000 to 195,000 Unemployment rate: * 4.1% to 4.3% Average hourly earnings m/m: * 0.2% to 0.4% Average hourly earnings y/y: * 2.8% to 3.9% *** Why is knowledge of such ranges important? Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons: * Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information. * Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term. * Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally. * Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling. * Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the NFP due today, a weaker jobs report will fuel speculation of sooner Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts to come. A stronger report will diminish such expectations, with the Fed on hold for longer. * Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found. * Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session we don't have much in terms of data releases other than a couple of low tier indicators. The focus will be on the American session when we get the Canadian Employment report, the US NFP and especially Fed Chair Powell's speech. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Canada March Employment report The Canadian Employment report is expected to show 10K jobs added in March vs. 1.1K in February and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.7% vs. 6.6% prior. The market is pricing a 52% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting and 66 bps of easing by year end amid the negative impact to global growth from Trump's tariffs. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US March Non-Farm Payrolls report The US NFP is expected to show 135K jobs added in March vs. 151K in February and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.9% vs. 4.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior. The Average Weekly Hours are seen at 34.2 vs. 34.1 prior. The Fed members continue to see the labour market remaining solid and not being a source of inflationary pressures. That seems to still be the case with jobless claims not showing any worrying signs although we saw a new cycle high for continuing claims yesterday. Central bank speakers: * 15:25 GMT/11:25 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter) * 16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter) * 16:45 GMT/12:45 ET - Fed's Waller (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

A new employment report reveals that Black women experienced the largest job losses among all demographics in April 2025. Experts are now… The post The Threat Is Real, Baby! Black Women Lost The Most Jobs In April 2025 Due To DEI Roll Backs appeared first on Shine My Crown.

U.S. job growth slowed in January as unemployment hit 4.0%, impacting potential Fed rate cuts. Wage growth remains strong, sustaining consumer spending.

The Labor Department's #employmentreport also showed the economy created 111,000 fewer jobs in April and June than previously estimated.