#EconomicFramework
Fed Powell: Framework calls for a balanced approach
* Fed unanimously adopts new policy framework of flexible inflation targeting, eliminates 'makeup' strategy for inflation * In Jackson Hole speech, says framework calls for balanced approach when central bank's goals in tension * Prior framework’s emphasis on overly specific set of economic conditions may have led to some confusion * Framework removes language indicating zero-lower-bound is a defining feature of economy * New framework designed to work in a range of economic conditions * Idea of intentionally moderate inflation overshoot proved irrelevant * New framework emphasizes commitment to act forcefully to ensure longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored * Fed still believes it may not need to tighten policy solely based on uncertain estimates that employment may be beyond its maximum sustainable level * Shortfall language in previous statement posed communications challenge, and is removed in new framework * Preemptive action likely would be warranted should tight labor market pose risk to price stability * Fed’s goals are in tension, must balance both sides of Fed’s mandate * Stability of unemployment rate allows Fed to 'proceed carefully' as we consider changes to policy stance * Risks to inflation tilted to upside, risks to employment to the downside * In Jackson Hole speech says shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy stance * Downside risks to labor market rising * GDP growth has slowed notably, reflecting slowdown in consumer spending * Latest data indicates 12-month PCE inflation rose 2.6% in July; core rose 2.9% * Effects of tariffs on consumer prices now clearly visible, expect effects to accumulate in coming months * Reasonable base case is inflation effects of tariffs will be short-lived * Possible that tariff-driven upward pressure on prices could spur lasting inflation dynamic, but unlikely, given downside risks to labor market * Cannot allow one-time increase in price level to be ongoing inflation problem * Tighter immigration has led to abrupt slowdown in labor force growth This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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August 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM