The analysis in our chapter is based on a new database on bilateral services trade which we have been compiling for the past year. We expect to publish it for others to use later this summer.

However, it appears that trade in modern services (the fastest-growing portion of international services trade) is most vulnerable to geoeconomic fragmentation. This could emerge as a headwind for services globalisation going forward.

We find that - in contrast with goods trade - the answer is: no (so far!).

My colleague Nan Li and I contributed a chapter on services trade. We ask: is there evidence that geopolitical alignments are reshaping bilateral trade in services? (In IMF parlance: is there “geoeconomic fragmentation” in services?)

Full report: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Conventional wisdom seems to be that for many important services (think tourism!) the exporter has much better information about the extent/value than the importer.

Unlike with goods, there is no customs data on which to base services trade statistics - just firm surveys, the methodology of which may not be consistent across countries. And the extent to which they capture the “truth” may not be symmetric between the importer and exporter.